this deserves more research.
excerpts:
Miki Gibo • Seiji Kojima • Akinori Fujisawa • Takayuki Kikuchi • Masanori
Fukushima
Published: April 08, 2024
DOI: 10.7759/cureus.57860
Peer-Reviewed
Cite this article as: Gibo M, Kojima S, Fujisawa A, et al. (April 08, 2024)
Increased Age-Adjusted Cancer Mortality After the Third mRNA-Lipid
Nanoparticle Vaccine Dose During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Japan. Cureus
16(4): e57860. doi:10.7759/cureus.57860
Abstract
During the COVID-19 pandemic, excess deaths including cancer have
become a concern in Japan, which has a rapidly aging population. Thus, this
study aimed to evaluate how age-adjusted mortality rates (AMRs) for
different types of cancer in Japan changed during the COVID-19 pandemic
(2020-2022). Official statistics from Japan were used to compare observed
annual and monthly AMRs with predicted rates based on pre-pandemic
(2010-2019) figures using logistic regression analysis. No significant excess
mortality was observed during the first year of the pandemic (2020).
However, some excess cancer mortalities were observed in 2021 after mass
vaccination with the first and second vaccine doses, and significant excess
mortalities were observed for all cancers and some specific types of cancer
(including ovarian cancer, leukemia, prostate cancer, lip/oral/pharyngeal
cancer, pancreatic cancer, and breast cancer) after mass vaccination with
the third dose in 2022. AMRs for the four cancers with the most deaths (lung,
colorectal, stomach, and liver) showed a decreasing trend until the first year
of the pandemic in 2020, but the rate of decrease slowed in 2021 and 2022.
This study discusses possible explanations for these increases in age-
adjusted cancer mortality rates.
Introduction
The COVID-19 pandemic began in December 2019 in Wuhan, China, and was
first detected in Japan in January 2020. In response, a range of healthcare
and socio-economic restrictions were implemented to curb the spread of the
disease. Since February 2021, the mRNA-lipid nanoparticle (mRNA-LNP)
vaccine has been available for emergency use and is recommended for all
individuals aged six months and older, especially those at high risk. As of
March 2023, 80% of the Japanese population had received their first and
second doses, 68% had received their third dose, and 45% had received
their fourth dose [1]. Despite these national measures, 33.8 million people
had been infected, and 74,500 deaths had been attributed to COVID-19 in
Japan by the end of April 2023. Additionally, excess deaths from causes
other than COVID-19 have been reported in various countries [2-6],
including deaths from cancer [7-10], and Japan is no exception [11,12].
Cancer is the leading cause of death in Japan, accounting for one-fourth of
all deaths. Therefore, it is essential to understand the effects of the
pandemic on mortality rates of cancer from 2020 to 2022. Age adjustment is
necessary for accurate evaluation, especially in diseases such as cancer that
tend to occur in elderly adults. Japan has several characteristics that make it
ideal for analyzing the impact of the pandemic on cancer mortality rates,
including its large population of 123 million, availability of official statistics,
and the high 80% accuracy rate of death certificates according to autopsy
studies [13].
Materials & Methods
Statistical data...
...Conclusions
Statistically significant increases in age-adjusted mortality rates of all cancer
and some specific types of cancer, namely, ovarian cancer, leukemia,
prostate, lip/oral/pharyngeal, pancreatic, and breast cancers, were observed
in 2022 after two-thirds of the Japanese population had received the third or
later dose of SARS-CoV-2 mRNA-LNP vaccine. These particularly marked
increases in mortality rates of these ERα-sensitive cancers may be
attributable to several mechanisms of the mRNA-LNP vaccination rather than
COVID-19 infection itself or reduced cancer care due to the lockdown. The
significance of this possibility warrants further studies. This article was
previously posted to the Zenodo repository server on September 18, 2023.
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Posted by EQF on April 18, 2024
If my reading is correct, mRNA vaccines work quite differently than the older types of vaccines.
The older types present the immune system with a small section of a virus. That then tricks the immune system into attacking the entire virus.
When you get a dose of the older vaccine, the amount of viral material you receive is simply what was in the original shot.
With the mRNA vaccines, the viral material in the shot gets into individual cells. They are then tricked into manufacturing more of the viral material that then gets into the blood. The immune system then learns to attack the original viral material and the new viral material manufactured by the cell.
So, the mRNA vaccines are more effective at presenting the immune system with viral material to attack.
However, those study results appear to suggest that when the call is tricked into manufacturing more viral material, some cells might be encouraged to become cancerous.
More research should indicate exactly what is happening.
However, I strongly suspect that even if there are more cases of cancer developing as a result of people getting the vaccine, that problem is relatively minor compared with the number of people who would have died from the Covid-19 infection had they not gotten the vaccine.
More research should also indicate if that is the case.
Covid-19 was and still is a nasty, dangerous virus.
These are personal opinions.
Regards to all,
EQF
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