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17496


Date: February 22, 2021 at 05:30:15
From: Akira, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Wind Turbines work fine in Antarctica and Alaska...

URL: https://www.juancole.com/2021/02/turbines-antarctica-winterize.html


Dear Texas Gov. Abbott: Wind Turbines work fine in Antarctica and Alaska, you’re just too Cheap to Winterize them

"Texas governor Greg Abbott alleged that the massive power outages in his state demonstrated the unwisdom of moving to renewable energy, attempting to blame the crisis on the state’s wind turbines. Like most of the things Republican politicians say publicly, this allegation was a lie.

Here’s a wind turbine working just fine in Antarctica:

Wind Turbine At Sunset. Mawson Station, Antarctica



The southern-most wind farm in the world, at Ross Island in Antarctica, has three functioning turbines.

Or consider Alaska’s wind turbines:

Science Channel: “Wind Turbines Help Power Alaska Through Harsh Winters”



We don’t have to go so far to find wind turbines working well in wintry, icy conditions. Take those at Syracuse in New York. They are equipped with sensors to discover when the blades have iced over. They are then turned off and a heating package on the blade is turned on to melt the ice. When that is done, the turbine is started right back up. Of course, the sensors and heating element cost a little money to install and run. The investment makes more sense in New York. But such packages could be installed on the Texas turbines if the owners were willing to cut a little into their profits. Since Texas has a big winter storm as often as every 5 years, that might make sense. But, again, two-thirds of the Texas wind turbines were unaffected by the storm, and they fed in crucial power when it was most needed.

Some 42% of Iowa’s electricity comes from wind, and that state has some pretty bad winters but no outages of the Texas sort. Fernando Garcia-Franceschini reports for ABC affiliate KCRG in Dubuque,

”When we order our wind turbines we add cold-weather packages to them,” spokesperson Geoff Greenwood said. “That includes heating elements, for example, inside the gearbox that is behind the turbines and that keeps certain components warm and enables the turbines to operate throughout the year, summer and winter alike.” Greenwood said those cold-weather kits enable the turbines to produce energy down to roughly -20 degrees.
About a year ago, a disinformation campaign was waged on Facebook against solar panels and wind turbines in Germany, alleging falsely that severe winter weather impeded their operation.

I have solar panels in Michigan, so allow me to let you in on a little secret. Solar panels run warm, and they melt the snow. Of course if it is particularly heavy you can get a long-handled broom-like tool to wipe them clean. The panels work by transforming sunlight into electricity in accordance with a finding by Einstein. They aren’t affected by cold.

The same campaign targeted Germany’s wind turbines. AFP explains that last February,

“On claims that 30,000 wind turbines were idle in Germany, Wolfram Axthelm, managing director of the country’s Wind Energy Association, said by email that “the claim that weather conditions would cause thousands of wind turbines across the country to stand mostly idle is simply false.”

Over the weekend of February 6 and 7, when temperatures dipped below 14 degrees Fahrenheit (-10 degrees Celsius), the amount of electricity generated from wind was actually above the monthly average, Axthelm said.”

Texas in any case only gets 10% of its electricity from wind, and the vast majority of the state’s wind turbines functioned just fine. The crisis was caused when the equipment in the coal, gas and nuclear plants froze up.

The freezing of the instruments happened because the Texas power plant owners did not want to dip into their profits to spend money on winterizing them, even though severe winter storms strike Texas twice every decade.

If people like Greg Abbott and his cronies in the Texas energy industry cared as much about people as about profits, they would have winterized. In fact, they might have been forced to do so if the Texas grid were connected to the federal one. But the Texas elite deliberately did not connect to the federal one in order to avoid regulation.

Abbott was the second great mistake of George W. Bush, with the first being the Iraq War fiasco. Bush appointed the attorney Abbott to the Texas supreme court. He later was elected attorney general and then governor. Abbott did his undergraduate degree in business administration and has none of the intellectual breadth a liberal arts education could have given him. He either doesn’t understand science or doesn’t want to, like a lot of high Texas GOP politicians. He is a creature of Big Oil, which funds his political campaigns.

Abbott won’t acknowledge that human burning of fossil fuels is causing our climate emergency. He could not understand the urgency of mask-wearing and social distancing and lockdowns of certain businesses to fight the coronavirus pandemic, and killed a lot of people with his initial anti-science policies.

Texas gets 25% of its electricity from wind because it is more economical than fossil fuels and the cost of its own fuel, wind, is zero and can be predicted out to twenty-five years. Texas mayors connected to the wind farms in the state’s wind corridor prefer the steady reliability of wind with regard to future costs. As noted, wind supplies 42% of Iowa’s electricity quite reliably, and likely the same thing will happen in Texas.

Abbott should come clean about his lie regarding wind turbines, and should have the decency to admit that burning oil and gas is harming the planet and blighting human lives. All he has to lose is his prison of G.O.P.looniness."


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17498


Date: February 22, 2021 at 13:10:11
From: JTRIV, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: kind of a dumb article


Hi Akira,

That is kind of a dumb article. Places like Texas as
well as where I am in Tennessee get so little cold
and snow/ice that we have very few snow plows and
the smallest snow furry shuts down the entire area.
Pipes burst because they rarely insulate their pipes
and I'm sure there were cars with cracked engine
blocks because they had water instead of antifreeze.
Why? It doesn't make financial sense to invest large
dollars for such rare events.


I doubt the wind turbines in Alaska or Antarctica
would handle Texas summer for even a few days.
Unless of course the folks in Alaska and Antarctica
want to spend the money for a once in a lifetime
event.

It is a shame the way this event is being politized,
but all the articles I've read showed that about 1/3
of the electricity generation capacity that was
offline in Texas was from wind turbines. The frozen
wind turbines weren't the sole cause of the Texas
energy failure... but they were a large part of it.

So instead of stupid articles about Texas being too
cheap to winterize their wind turbines hopefully the
smart people are looking at and addressing the issue
caused this problem.

Cheers

Jim


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17503


Date: February 22, 2021 at 22:12:57
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: kind of a dumb article

URL: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tehachapi_Pass_wind_farm


Wrong..I live in the sierras (southern) where we have
the 2nd largest (last I checked) windmill farms in the
nation. Because we're 4,000+ feet (some of the mills
on the ridges are 5-6,000ft) we get plenty of snow and
ice in the winter during storms.

We're also right along side the Mojave desert, where
windmill fields also are built..temps above 110+ in
the summer. They operate just fine. They've been
equipped to handle all kinds of temperature and
weather conditions. They can handle "both" types of
weather extremes of temperature.

It is a shame the event is being politicized, I agree
with you there...but it has nothing to do with
windmill technology. It has to do with "You get what
you pay for"...and they didn't weatherize them. They
know better now.

That goes for the plumbing in the gas/electric/nuclear
power plants, too.

It's not a dumb discussion, however. There most
definitely is an issue, and it most definitely needs
to be addressed so that it never happens again.


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[17506] [17521] [17524]


17506


Date: February 22, 2021 at 22:48:48
From: JTRIV, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: where's the meat?


Hi Red,

So where you live in Southern California the
temperature varies greatly. And because of this you
have to have wind turbines that will perform in both
the summer and winter. That is probably budgeted in
and planned maintenance to ensure they can perform
in both he cold and the heat. But do you think the
wind turbines in Alaska and Antarctica are prepared
to endure the same low and high temperature
extremes? I'm betting they are designed for cold
exclusively, from the tolerances to their
lubrication to their built in heaters.

So were the wind turbines in Texas budgeted for both
the heat and cold? And is you political BS you
slimy political people put out because the officials
in Texas planned for and budged for cold
temperatures but then were too cheap to spend the
money? Or is it simply because you are political
beasts?

So where's the meat? Where are the facts? That is
what seems to be missing from these political based
articles.

Cheers

Jim


Responses:
[17521] [17524]


17521


Date: February 23, 2021 at 16:01:35
From: redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: where's the meat?

URL: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Norther_(weather)


My question is, why weren't they budgeted for that?
"Blue Northers" happen in Texas, and it's been a known
phenomenea in years past. (at link above)

They had been warned a decade ago. El Paso upgraded
there's, and didn't suffer the same fate. Someone told
them..and they made wise decisions, and others made
bad choices.

https://kvia.com/news/el-paso/2021/02/15/el-pasos-not-
seeing-power-outages-like-the-rest-of-texas-and-heres-
why/

This is weather science and infrastructure
wisdom...not political unless one makes it that way.

California made it's own mistakes in the past...Enron,
same company that rolled california also had a hand in
the current form of the grid in Texas.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/02/23/ener
gy-deregulation-worsened-texas-crisis-enron-is-partly-
blame/

Like California had to learn and adapt, so does Texas.


Responses:
[17524]


17524


Date: February 23, 2021 at 18:25:40
From: JTRIV, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: where's the meat?


Hi Redhart,

I live in the south and have spent time in Texas so
I'm aware they have the occasional cold snap. Alan
has documented previous failures of the grid during
previous cold snaps.

But to us in the south these things happen so seldom
it isn't economical to prepare. When I lived in
Nebraska school was in session with 8-12 inches of
snow. They are prepared for such weather in Nebraska
and it is a normal part of life. In Tennessee they
close the schools if snow is forecast because we
don't have sufficient equipment to plow and clean
all the streets. We could spend hundreds of millions
of dollars and be prepared to clean our streets in
winter weather... but the equipment might literally
be old and antiquated by the next time it is needed.
We were unable to leave the house for 5 days last
week.. first time in the 33 years we have lived here
that has happened.

Interesting article on El Paso Electric. The irony
is that the only wind power in their grid is 2
turbines at the Hueco Mountain Wind Ranch. No
reports if those 2 turbines are winterized or how
they survived the cold snap. And El Paso Electric is
private and owned by JP Morgan Chase.

Cheers

Jim


Responses:
None


17500


Date: February 22, 2021 at 16:55:34
From: Akira, [DNS_Address]
Subject: admittedly this is better...

URL: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/21/opinion/green-new-deal-texas-blackout.html


Why Texas Republicans Fear the Green New Deal

"Small government is no match for a crisis born of the state’s twin
addictions to market fixes and fossil fuels.

Since the power went out in Texas, the state’s most prominent Republicans
have tried to pin the blame for the crisis on, of all things, a sweeping
progressive mobilization to fight poverty, inequality and climate change.

“This shows how the Green New Deal would be a deadly deal,” Gov. Greg
Abbott of Texas said Wednesday on Fox News. Pointing to snow-covered
solar panels, Rick Perry, a former governor who was later an energy
secretary for the Trump administration, posted on Twitter a quotation from a
Forbes article by Robert Bryce, who wrote that “if we humans want to keep
surviving frigid winters, we are going to have to keep burning natural gas —
and lots of it — for decades to come.”

The claims are outlandish. The Green New Deal is, among other things, a
plan to tightly regulate and upgrade the energy system so the United States
gets 100 percent of its electricity from renewables in a decade. Texas, of
course, still gets the majority of its energy from gas and coal; much of that
industry’s poorly insulated infrastructure froze up last week when it collided
with wild weather that prompted a huge surge in demand. (Despite the
claims of many conservatives, renewable energy was not to blame.) It was
the very sort of freakish weather system now increasingly common, thanks
to the unearthing and burning of fossil fuels like coal and gas. While the link
between global warming and rare cold fronts like the one that just slammed
Texas remains an area of active research, Katharine Hayhoe, a climate
scientist at Texas Tech University, says the increasing frequency of such
events should be “a wake up call.”

But weather alone did not cause this crisis. Texans are living through the
collapse of a 40-year experiment in free-market fundamentalism, one that
has also stood in the way of effective climate action.
Fortunately,
there’s a way out — and that’s precisely what Republican politicians in the
state most fear.

A fateful series of decisions were made in the late-’90s, when the now-
defunct, scandal-plagued energy company Enron led a successful push to
radically deregulate Texas’s electricity sector. As a result, decisions about
the generation and distribution of power were stripped from regulators and,
in effect, handed over to private energy companies. Unsurprisingly, these
companies prioritized short-term profit over costly investments to maintain
the grid and build in redundancies for extreme weather.


Today, Texans are at the mercy of regulation-allergic politicians who
failed to require that energy companies plan for shocks or weatherize their
infrastructure (renewables and fossil fuel alike). In a recent appearance on
NBC’s “Today” show, Austin’s mayor, Steve Adler, summed it up: “We have a
deregulated power system in the state and it does not work, because it does
not build in the incentives in order to protect people.”


This energy-market free-for-all means that as the snow finally melts, many
Texans are discovering that they owe their private electricity providers
thousands of dollars — a consequence of leaving pricing to the whims of
the market. The $200,000 energy bills some people received, the
photos of which went viral online, were, it seems, a mistake. But some bills
approaching $10,000 are the result of simple supply and demand in a
radically underregulated market.
“The last thing an awful lot of people
need right now is a higher electric bill,” said Matt Schulz, chief industry
analyst with LendingTree. “And that’s unfortunately something a lot of
people will get stuck with.” This is bad news for those customers, but great
news for shale gas companies like Comstock Resources Inc. On an earnings
call last Wednesday, its chief financial officer said, “This week is like hitting
the jackpot with some of these incredible prices.”

Put bluntly, Texas is about as far from having a Green New Deal as any place
on earth. So why have Republicans seized it as their scapegoat of choice?

A Shock to the System

Blame right-wing panic. For decades, the Republicans have met every
disaster with a credo I have described as “the shock doctrine.” When
disaster strikes, people are frightened and dislocated. They focus on
handling the emergencies of daily life, like boiling snow for drinking water.
They have less time to engage in politics and a reduced capacity to protect
their rights. They often regress, deferring to strong and decisive leaders —
think of New York’s ill-fated love affairs with then-Mayor Rudy Giuliani after
the 9/11 attacks and Gov. Andrew Cuomo in the early months of the Covid-
19 pandemic.

Large-scale shocks — natural disasters, economic collapse, terrorist attacks
— become ideal moments to smuggle in unpopular free-market policies that
tend to enrich elites at everyone else’s expense. Crucially, the shock
doctrine is not about solving underlying drivers of crises: It’s about
exploiting those crises to ram through your wish list even if it exacerbates
the crisis.

To explain this phenomenon, I often quote a guru of the free market
revolution, the late economist Milton Friedman. In 1982, he wrote about
what he saw as the mission of right-wing economists like him: “Only a crisis
— actual or perceived — produces real change. When that crisis occurs, the
actions that are taken depend on the ideas that are lying around. That, I
believe, is our basic function: to develop alternatives to existing policies, to
keep them alive and available until the politically impossible becomes
politically inevitable.”

Republicans have effectively deployed this tactic even after crises like
the 2008 market collapse, created by financial deregulation and made
deadlier by decades of austerity. Democrats have, largely, been willing
partners. This seems counterintuitive, but it all comes back to Friedman’s
credo: The change doesn’t depend on the reasons for the crisis, only on
who has the ideas “lying around” — a kind of intellectual disaster
preparedness. And for a long time, it was only the right, bolstered by a
network of free-market think tanks linked to both major parties, that had its
ideas at the ready.


When Hurricane Katrina broke through New Orleans’s long-neglected levees
in 2005, there was, briefly, some hope that the catastrophe might serve as a
kind of wake-up call. Witnessing the abandonment of thousands of
residents on their rooftops and in the Superdome, small-government
fetishists suddenly lost their religion. “When a city is sinking into the sea and
rioting runs rampant, government probably should saddle-up,” Jonah
Goldberg, a prominent right-wing commentator, wrote at the time. In
environmental circles, there was also discussion that the disaster could spur
climate action. Some dared to predict that the collapsed levees would be for
the small-government, free-market legacy of Reaganism what the fall of the
Berlin Wall was for Soviet Communism.

None of it happened. Instead, New Orleans became a laboratory for the
shock doctrine. Public schools were shut down en masse, replaced by
charter schools. Public housing was demolished, and costly townhouses
sprang up, preventing thousands of the city’s poorest residents, the majority
of them Black, from ever returning. The reconstruction of the city became a
feeding ground for private contractors. Republicans used the cover of crisis
to call for expanded oil and gas exploration and new refinery capacity, much
as Mr. Perry is doing right now in Texas with his calls for doubling down on
gas.


Many tried to stop them. Teachers’ unions, despite having their members
scattered throughout the country, did their best to fight the privatizations.
Residents of public housing and their supporters faced tear gas to try to
stop the demolition of their homes. But there were no readily available,
alternate ideas lying around for how New Orleans could be rebuilt to make it
both greener and fairer for all of its residents.

Even if there had been, there was no political muscle to turn such ideas into
reality. Though the environmental justice movement has deep roots in
Louisiana’s “cancer alley,” the climate justice movement was only just
emerging at the time Katrina struck. There was no Sunrise Movement, the
youth-led organization that occupied Nancy Pelosi’s office after the 2018
midterms to demand “good jobs, and a livable planet.” There was no
“squad,” the ad hoc alliance of congressional progressives whose most
visible member, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, sent shock waves through
Washington by joining the Sunrisers in their occupation. There had not yet
been two Bernie Sanders presidential campaigns to show Americans how
popular these ideas really are. And there was certainly no national
movement for a Green New Deal.

Lying in Ruin

The difference between then and now goes a very long way toward
explaining why Mr. Abbott is railing against a policy plan that, as of now,
exists primarily on paper. In a crisis, ideas matter — he knows this. He also
knows that the Green New Deal, which promises to create millions of union
jobs building out shock-resilient green energy infrastructure, transit and
affordable housing, is extremely appealing. This is especially true now, as so
many Texans suffer under the overlapping crises of unemployment,
houselessness, racial injustice, crumbling public services and extreme
weather.

All that Texas’s Republicans have to offer, in contrast, is continued oil and
gas dependence — driving more climate disruption — alongside more
privatizations and cuts to public services to pay for their state’s mess, which
we can expect them to push in the weeks and months ahead.

Will it work? Unlike when the Republican Party began deploying the
shock doctrine, its free-market playbook is no longer novel. It has been tried
and repeatedly tested: by the pandemic, by spiraling hunger and
joblessness, by extreme weather. And it is failing all of those tests — so
much so that even the most ardent cheerleaders of deregulation now point
to Texas’s energy grid as a cautionary tale. A recent article in the Wall Street
Journal, for instance, called the deregulation of Texas’s energy system “a
fundamental flaw.”


In short, Republican ideas are no longer lying around — they are lying in
ruin. Small government is simply no match for this era of big, interlocking
problems. Moreover, for the first time since Margaret Thatcher, Britain’s
former prime minister, declared that “there is no alternative” to leaving our
fates to the market, progressives are ready with a host of problem-solving
plans. The big question is whether the Democrats who hold power in
Washington will have the courage to implement them.

The horrors currently unfolding in Texas expose both the reality of the
climate crisis and the extreme vulnerability of fossil fuel infrastructure in the
face of that crisis. So of course the Green New Deal finds itself under fierce
attack. Because for the first time in a long time, Republicans face the
very thing that they claim to revere but never actually wanted: competition
— in the battle of ideas."


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17504


Date: February 22, 2021 at 22:30:52
From: JTRIV, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: seems to be more political bullshit


Hi Akira,

Well... seems to be more political bullshit. I never
saw them talk about what contributed to the Texas
energy crisis.. only about various political
positions.

Do you read issue focused articles or just political
BS? You typically seem more balanced but these seem
to be anti-Republican articles without addressing
the actual issues.

Cheers

Jim


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17509


Date: February 23, 2021 at 06:32:18
From: Akira, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: seems to be more political bullshit


It would appear that concept of deregulation and its consequences are over
your head.


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17512


Date: February 23, 2021 at 07:49:27
From: JTRIV, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: seems to be more political bullshit


Hi Akira,

Well is the issue deregulation?? I read your latest
article... but again it seems more political than
factual even starting with "Republican leaders" and
it doesn't make much of a case for deregulation as
the root cause.

As Alan showed wind turbines in the Southwest don't
use the "cold weather package". I would have to
guess that wind turbines in Alaska and Antarctica
don't use the hot weather package for the same
reason... which is why as said the original article
you posted was dumb.

Cheers

Jim


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17515


Date: February 23, 2021 at 09:40:36
From: Akira, [DNS_Address]
Subject: like it or not, it's a political issue

URL: https://www.lawfareblog.com/lessons-texas-grid-disaster-planning-and-investing-different-future


Lessons From the Texas Grid Disaster: Planning and Investing for a Different
Future

"It is now a week out from the start of the massive Texas grid failure that has
resulted in numerous deaths; millions of people plunged into darkness;
scores of communities without clean water or heat in record cold
temperatures; and billions of dollars in catastrophic damage to homes,
businesses and the physical infrastructure that supports them. Critical
questions surround the causes of this massive disaster and how to plan for
the future so that a tragedy of this scale does not happen again.

At this point, there are many facts that Americans already know. Contrary to
the spurious claims by Governor Greg Abbott as well as numerous right-
wing politicians and pundits, freezing wind turbines and the state’s history
of supporting renewable energy development did not cause the grid to fail.
Indeed, wind turbines outperformed grid operator expectations, despite the
extreme cold, and the outages would have been worse without the wind
energy that remained online. Instead, the state’s electric grid failed for a
very simple reason—because Texas power plant operators do not insulate
their facilities for sustained cold temperatures. As a result, pipes and
equipment needed to run the state’s natural gas plants, nuclear plants, and
wind turbines froze, taking a large fraction of them offline at precisely the
moment that energy demand statewide skyrocketed in an attempt to heat
homes and businesses. When all was said and done, wind energy
performed fairly well overall and natural gas, which provides the vast
majority of the state’s electricity in the winter months, failed spectacularly.
While there are ongoing, important debates over the need to invest in more
renewable energy in Texas and nationwide, the problems in Texas this week
were not the state’s current mix of energy resources, but the fact that the
state’s energy resources were not prepared to perform in the low
temperatures the entire state saw this week.

The important question now is what can Texas—as well as the rest of the
country—learn from this disaster to avoid similar outcomes in the future?
One area of inquiry of course is Texas’s unique electric grid. In the rest of
the continental United States, electricity flows freely within two large,
interconnected networks of intrastate and interstate electric transmission
lines, or “grids,” called the Eastern Interconnection and Western
Interconnection, with the dividing line being approximately at the Rocky
Mountains. Almost all of Texas, however, has its own grid, known as the
Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), which does not transmit
electricity outside its borders. By establishing its own self-contained electric
grid many decades ago, Texas was able to avoid transmitting electricity in
interstate commerce and thus intentionally avoided the bulk of federal
regulation of prices, charges, and other activities related to the sale and
transmission of electricity under the Federal Power Act. In other words, the
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), which regulates those
activities in the rest of the continental United States, has very limited
jurisdiction in Texas. For a state that sometimes aspires to be its own nation,
it has in fact largely succeeded in that goal when it comes to the electricity
realm.

In many ways, ERCOT’s autonomy has worked well for Texas even if it could
never be a model for the rest of the country. Texas is unique not only in
having its own grid but also in being home to ample fossil fuel resources—
coal, natural gas and oil—as well as vast renewable energy resources such
as solar and wind, and large population centers to consume that energy.
Moreover, with such a large land mass, Texas has historically counted on the
fact that heat waves, cold spells and power plant outages are generally
limited to only parts of the state at any one time, allowing energy resources
in other regions of the state to make up the difference in times of outages or
high consumer demand. Texas in general and ERCOT in particular have used
this autonomy to be innovative in many ways. Texas has by the far the most
installed wind energy capacity of any state; it has built the nation’s most
impressive set of electric transmission lines—known as the CREZ lines—to
bring that wind to population centers; it is becoming a leading state in solar
energy; its deregulated market has led to the early retirement of coal plants;
and it has accomplished these goals without renewable energy mandates or
similar regulations that other states, like California, have used to attempt to
accomplish similar goals.

But this week ERCOT’s isolation and Texas’s deregulated electricity markets
were liabilities, not assets. Texas could not call on energy resources from
other parts of the nation, as is done everywhere else in the country, because
of its physical and regulatory barriers. Likewise, ERCOT’s lack of a “capacity
market,” which pays generators in advance to have reserve power available
in times of high demand, meant that when ERCOT’s energy demand
forecasts proved too low, there was no extra power available as backup.
Ironically, regulators and other experts always knew these factors posed a
risk to the Texas electric grid, but they generally believed that this risk was
highest in the summer, when hot weather and the use of air conditioning
often sends demand skyrocketing. A wintertime energy peak well beyond
the capacity of the state’s energy system was more of a surprise, although
not unprecedented.

The fundamental problem last week was not ERCOT’s isolation or the lack of
a capacity market but a failure of investment. A failure of investment in
insulation of individual homes, businesses and pipes. A failure of investment
in insulation of wind turbines, natural gas pipelines, wells, water lines, water
treatment systems, natural gas plants, coal plants and nuclear plants. In
northern climates in the United States, all of this infrastructure is built or
retrofitted for prolonged cold weather. Wind turbines don’t freeze in Iowa,
Minnesota, North Dakota and neighboring states in sustained cold weather,
and neither do natural gas plants, nuclear plants, water treatment plants or
pipes in most individual homes. Infrastructure in cold weather states is built
to withstand such weather because it is anticipated to occur on a regular
basis, so it’s worth the money. In warm weather states, that money is not
spent, making the energy plant or the individual home less expensive up
front to build but vulnerable to changing weather patterns. We make
decisions on how much to spend on precautions, whether for hot or cold
weather or for a terrorist attack, based primarily on the past. If all of Texas
doesn’t regularly experience sustained cold weather or sustained heat at the
same time, then some may argue that it’s overkill to spend the money to
protect against it.

Another problem is that these extreme weather events won’t be so rare
going forward. Climate change means the past is no longer an accurate
guide for the future or even for the present. The sustained cold throughout
Texas and the sustained heat waves and fires in California in 2020 are
unfortunately the new normal, not to mention more frequent floods,
hurricanes and tornadoes. This requires officials to create new cost-benefit
analyses for investments in new infrastructure and retrofits of existing
infrastructure. In California, that may mean placing more electric
transmission lines underground, despite the higher up-front cost, so the
power doesn’t go out during heat waves. In Texas, that may mean creating
new connections between ERCOT and the rest of the country to ship large
amounts of renewable energy around the country, to both reduce
greenhouse gas emissions and increase power availability over multiple time
zones and weather zones. Indeed, the National Renewable Energy
Laboratory’s “Interconnections Seams Study” released in October 2020
proposes just such a plan in order to create a national “Supergrid” to
facilitate the clean energy transition we need to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions from the power sector, save energy-related costs, and address
the increased vulnerabilities to the electric grid from the weather-related
adverse effects of climate change. Other experts in the field have
conducted similar analyses and made similar recommendations.

Increased and better regulation at both the federal and state levels must
play a role in these efforts. To create the new “Supergrid” required to
transport large quantities of wind and solar energy from where it is
generated to where it is needed across multiple time zones requires federal
coordination, collaboration, investment and regulation. The U.S. Department
of Energy and FERC are well suited to this task. In Texas, ERCOT and the
Public Utility Commission of Texas must also consider greater regulation of
the industry to ensure appropriate investments in weatherization and
consider coordination with other states and the federal government.
Governor Abbott has taken at least a first step in that direction. He appears
to have stopped talking about frozen wind turbines and instead has
requested that state lawmakers “mandate the winterization of the electric
system.”

Finally, it is critical that Americans not focus solely on the technical and
regulatory aspects of this disaster in moving forward but also on the human
cost. People have died, have lost their homes and livelihoods, and are losing
faith in the ability of U.S. institutions to protect the country, particularly its
most vulnerable residents, in a crisis. Most Texans are not as lucky as Sen.
Ted Cruz, who was able to plan an impromptu trip to Cancun with his family
to weather the storm when his house went cold. Those most affected by
this disaster are poor, non-white, and the most removed from the regulators
and industry leaders who will do the cost-benefit analyses that will
determine how much is spent to ensure that American homes and energy
systems are protected from increasingly severe weather—hot and cold, wet
and dry, fire and fury. While many people decry the cost of the Green New
Deal or similar ambitious energy transition proposals, last week’s disaster
makes clear that the status quo is not cheap. There are solutions to the
problems that lie ahead, if Americans are willing to plan and invest in the
nation’s future."


Responses:
[17516]


17516


Date: February 23, 2021 at 11:01:52
From: JTRIV, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: like it or not, it's a political issue


Hi Akira,

That is true but unfortunate. Political people make
every issue political.

Looking around I see a lot of slamming of Texas and
their politicians.. but as I said to Redhart where's
the meat? See the graphic above from the U.S. Energy
Information Administration on Texas power production
during the recent cold weather crisis. And removing
politics from the equation we can see that during
the energy crisis both wind and solar did not
perform well.

Now it is up to the politicians to decide if the
price of cold weather packages for their wind
turbines and extra capacity as backup for when
renewable energy isn't performing should be spent.
I'm sure it is a hefty price tag and as I already
said I'm very curious if these costs were considered
when the decision was made to install this renewable
energy. I totally support renewable energy, however
what is the price of winterizing a fleet of wind
turbines yearly to prepare for an event that happens
once every 10 years at most. A lot of politics and
finger pointing but this episode shows the cost of
renewable energy may be higher... even much higher
than just the installation costs.

Cheers

Jim


Responses:
None


17513


Date: February 23, 2021 at 08:10:31
From: Alan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: seems to be more political bullshit


"As Alan showed wind turbines in the Southwest don't
use the "cold weather package". I would have to
guess that wind turbines in Alaska and Antarctica
don't use the hot weather package for the same
reason"

*Sigh*

Alaska / Antartica don't quite have heatwaves as frequently as Texas getting chilly.

Someone in Texas has thought it acceptable that about once every decade it will grind to a halt, and
ignored multiple advice to take foreseeable preventative measures to better cope.

Dereuglation comes into it as Texas has chosen to go it alone and is independant from energy
coming in via grid from outside when their systems fail, plus the recommendations from reports they
get after each time thay have a crisis aren't mandatory and is seemingly mainly ignored.


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17517


Date: February 23, 2021 at 11:11:42
From: JTRIV, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: seems to be more political bullshit


Hi Alan,

> Someone in Texas has thought it acceptable that
> about once every decade it will grind to a halt,
> and ignored multiple advice to take foreseeable
> preventative measures to better cope.

But again... when these wind farms were proposed did
the proposals include yearly winterization costs for
the turbines along with the price of reliable
backups? While you political folks are kicking folks
of the other political persuasion the facts seem to
be missing. You political folks still can't seem to
pull your heads out of your own asses long enough to
take an objective look at anything.

Cheers

Jim


Responses:
[17522] [17523] [17526] [17529] [17531] [17538] [17539] [17543] [17540] [17542] [17530]


17522


Date: February 23, 2021 at 16:05:10
From: redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: seems to be more political bullshit


you seem to be the one making it political. If the
proposals didn't have the weatherization included, it
seems one should be asking the deregulated state energy
companies why.

Someone put the money in the pocket and their customers
at risk.

Sounds like private corporations at work, to me.


Responses:
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17523


Date: February 23, 2021 at 17:27:53
From: JTRIV, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: looking forward to your reference


Hi Redhart,

> you seem to be the one making it political

That's kind of a stupid thing to say, don't you
think? I mean the first article in the top post was
started off by telling the Texas governor that wind
turbines work in Alaska and Antarctica.

Then Akira responded with an article titled "Why
Texas Republicans Fear the Green New Deal".

But sure, I'm the one making it political. LMAO

> Someone put the money in the pocket and their
customers at risk.

Wow... that's a serious allegation and not too
surprising since we are talking about government.
Still... it feels like a baseless accusation. Or
have I missed the news on this one. Would you mind
supporting that with a link?

Cheers

Jim


Responses:
[17526] [17529] [17531] [17538] [17539] [17543] [17540] [17542] [17530]


17526


Date: February 24, 2021 at 08:40:06
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: looking forward to your reference


The republicans are in control "now", they haven't
always been in the past, and they may not be in the
future. But, right now, they're calling the shots on
regulation.

I haven't researched it at this time, but when the
windmills were proposed, I do not know who was in
power. Their choices, no matter which party it was,
were not good ones.

I'm looking at the choices made..and who made them, so
better choices can be made in the future and this
particular scenario does not happen again putting all
the people of Texas, no matter what party, at risk
again.

Blue Northers happen frequently enough that they
should have been taken into consideration. In fact,
so frequently for Christmas I sent some of the Texas
grandkids snow sleds for Christmas before this event
(they had just had another snowstorm).

If I knew enough to select gifts like that, you would
think the energy operating companies would know enough
too.

So, the question is..where they really that blind and
dumb about it, or were the choices made to line
pockets at the citizens' expense? Next is, what are
they going to do about this to fix it.

My own kids and other family members were put at risk.
This is rather personal for me. Some of them fled to
Oklahoma to a brother's home, slightly further north,
just as cold, but managed to keep their power and
water.


Responses:
[17529] [17531] [17538] [17539] [17543] [17540] [17542] [17530]


17529


Date: February 24, 2021 at 09:22:50
From: JTRIV, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: looking forward to your reference


Hi Redhart,

I also have family in Texas that are suffering from
the rolling blackouts so I can relate.

But as I keep saying, what are the economics of
this? Across the south the economics of winter
weather doesn't support enough equipment to clear a
major snow event. Did the manufacturer of these wind
turbines recommend winterization for places that
have a once a decade ice/snow event? How much would
such changes add to the electricity bills of Texans?
(which is something unility companies always have to
consider)

Was there corruption? Bad management? Or just
difficult economic decisions that bit them in the
ass with this unprecedented weather event?

Cheers

Jim


Responses:
[17531] [17538] [17539] [17543] [17540] [17542] [17530]


17531


Date: February 24, 2021 at 12:46:03
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: looking forward to your reference


"Across the south the economics of winter
weather doesn't support enough equipment to clear a
major snow event. .."

This is where we seem to have a primary disagreement. I
think it does support snow equipment.

And as far as the economics passed on to the
consumer..$5,000 - $17K electric bills doesn't seem to
be working for those consumers, either.


Responses:
[17538] [17539] [17543] [17540] [17542]


17538


Date: February 27, 2021 at 00:34:58
From: JTRIV, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: looking forward to your reference


Hi Redhart,

> This is where we seem to have a primary
> disagreement. I think it does support snow
> equipment.

What is the basis for this belief? This is a long
standing issue in the south. The cost to tax payers
to invest in equipment for events that don't even
happen every 5 years is rarely seen as providing
enough ROI. Have you run the numbers for any of this
to grasp the high cost for something that is rarely
needed?

And as far as those Texas wind turbines.. I'd be
interested in just what the yearly cost would be to
winterize and unwinterized yearly.

And unless I missed it I still haven't see your
reference to support your claim that someone put the
money in their pocket and their customer at risk.
Or was it just bold words with no actual knowledge?

Cheers

Jim


Responses:
[17539] [17543] [17540] [17542]


17539


Date: February 27, 2021 at 16:41:45
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: looking forward to your reference


Well, if it's cold enough often enough to send snow
sleds to my grandchildren there, then-to me--it makes
sense to put a sweater on the power grid (or at least
have one in the closet to activate).

Just common sense.
Blue northers are a standard feature of Texas.
We saw El Paso put the money into safeguarding theirs
and the out come of that (which was good). I don't
hear their customers complaining.

I hear the tax payers that didn't have the safe guards
complaining (and remember, much of the grid is
privatized..but the state is now going to have a big
bill for much of the mess).

Sounds like good business sense, too.

I think we just saw the other outcome. This has
happened before, it will happen again. They best fix
it and "put a sweater on".

Pretty simple.

I don't have a reference for "money in the pocket"
other than observation and my opinion. I lived through
the enron scandal in california--I've seen things
"like" this, and if people are getting mega bills, if
the grid's falling apart and precautions were paid
for...seems that money was going somewhere. (That's an
opinion, btw). Remember, and it's in some of the
previous articles posted, that Enron--though now
defunct, had a hand in setting up the Texas system
which like the manufactured rolling black outs in
california and pocketing profits meant to attend to
increased maintenance that never happened, seems like
a familiar story.

Is it the correct one? Time will tell, I'm sure. No
doubt there's going to be investigations and hearings
all over the place.


Responses:
[17543] [17540] [17542]


17543


Date: March 02, 2021 at 11:47:26
From: JTRIV, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: looking forward to your reference


Hi Redhart,

So at first it was someone putting money in their
pocket and now it is "Just common sense". LOL

What you seem to be missing is the total cost.
People can afford to buy snow sleds and keep them in
the garage for years for those every decade or so
cold spells... but the cost of modifying their
entire network for cold weather costs a bit more
than a snow sled. Most people in my area were
stranded in their homes for many days because of the
ice storm and a lack of equipment. Hell I bet no one
in my area owns a snow blower while my work
colleagues who live in the north have them to clear
their snow. The ROI just isn't there for the
occasional cold weather/snow/ice events.

Oh, and since you mentioned Enron.... El Paso
electric who everyone keeps bragging about was
involved in the Enron scandal and paid a $10 million
settlement.

Cheers

Jim


Responses:
None


17540


Date: February 28, 2021 at 11:58:09
From: sheila, [DNS_Address]
Subject: about El Paso electric...

URL: https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2021/0219/Shoring-up-the-grid-What-El-Paso-can-teach-the-rest-of-Texas


Caption for the above image: The United States has three major power grids with six, regional electric reliability organizations overseeing the grids. Those are Midwest Reliability Corp., or MRO; Northeast Power Coordinating Council, or NPCC; Reliability First, or RF; Southeastern Electric Reliability Council, or SERC; Texas Reliability Entity, or Texas RE; and Western Electricity Coordinating Council, or WECC. (Photo: Courtesy North American Electric Reliability Corp.)



El Paso electric corp is a non profit corporation and belongs to the Western Power Grid. Why couldn't the rest of Texas join one of the other power grids adjacent to them? Because they would then be subject to regulations! Being a "for profit" co. they don't want regulations which is why they chose to be a stand alone grid. If they either sell or buy from out of state, regulations kick in.

After the 2011 cold snap, El Paso Electric paid 4.5 million dollars to winterize their system. That according to the article at the link. Seems to me that the investment was well worth it and since they belong to the Western power grid, they abide by the regulations, and can get power as far away as Montana if needs arise.
In any case, according to the same article, Gov. Gregg Abbot has called for the resignation of the entire board of ERCOT! Pretty sure things will change for the better or not if short memories prevail.

Bearing in mind that extreme weather events are increasing in number due to climate change, it's time to overhaul the electrical grid in Texas as well as any other areas that aren't hardened to withstand these extremes.


Responses:
[17542]


17542


Date: March 02, 2021 at 11:35:23
From: JTRIV, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: about El Paso electric...


Hi shelia,

> El Paso electric corp is a non profit corporation

As usual you have your facts confused. ERCOT who had
major problems with their power grid is a 501(c)
non-profit while El Paso electric is a for profit
utility company currently owned by JP Morgan Chase.

It is also good to keep in mind that El Paso
electric could spend $4.5 million on winterization
because they are fairly small servicing only 400,000
customers while ERCOT has 25 million customers. Also
El Paso electric has just 2 wind turbines while
ERCOT generates 25% of their electricity from wind
farms.

Cheers

Jim


Responses:
None


17530


Date: February 24, 2021 at 09:33:42
From: Alan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: looking forward to your reference


From the 2011 report. It has been a known problem going back 3 decades

""The (2011) storm, however, was not without precedent. There were prior
severe cold weather events in the Southwest in 1983, 1989, 2003, 2006,
2008, and 2010.

The experiences of 1989 are instructive, particularly on the electric side.
In that year, as in 2011, cold weather caused many generators to trip,
derate, or fail to start. The PUCT investigated the occurrence and issued
a number of recommendations aimed at improving winterization on the
part of the generators. These recommendations were not mandatory, and
over the course of time implementation lapsed. Many of the generators
that experienced outages in 1989 failed again in 2011.


Responses:
None


17499


Date: February 22, 2021 at 14:22:33
From: Alan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Texas Was Warned a Decade Ago Its Grid Was Unready for Cold Read

URL: Texas Was Warned a Decade Ago Its Grid Was Unready for Cold


"So instead of stupid articles about Texas being too
cheap to winterize their wind turbines hopefully the
smart people are looking at and addressing the issue
caused this problem. "

Ignoring it and not investing in measures to cope with its effects on
people and economy and emphasising spending money instead on
building a wall to the south isn't going to make temperature extremes go
away...

(Bloomberg) -- Federal regulators warned Texas that its power plants
couldn’t be counted on to reliably churn out electricity in bitterly cold
conditions a decade ago, when the last deep freeze plunged 4 million
people into the dark. They recommended that utilities use more
insulation, heat pipes and take other steps to winterize plants --
strategies commonly observed in cooler climates but not in cooler
climates but not in normally balmy Texas.

As investigators probe the current power crisis in Texas, which has left
millions of people without power or a promise of when it will be restored,
questions are sure to be raised about how the state responded to the
urgings from the 2011 analysis, issued by the Federal Energy Regulatory
Commission and the North America Electric Reliability Corporation, which
sets reliability standards.

The February 2011 incident occurred when an Arctic cold front
descended on the Southwest, sending temperatures below freezing for
four days in a row. The result was disastrous. Equipment and instruments
froze, forcing the shutdown of power plants and rolling blackouts,
according to the report.

Moreover, some of the same equipment, the report noted, had failed
during previous cold snaps. One in December 1989 prompted the state’s
grid operator to resort to system-wide rolling blackouts for the first time.

“Many generators failed to adequately apply and institutionalize
knowledge and recommendations from previous severe winter weather
events, especially as to winterization of generation and plant auxiliary
equipment,” the 2011 report said.


Effects, lessons of 1983 freeze evident on Texas ecosystem

During the '83 freeze, water temperature in Texas bays dropped to as low
as 28 degrees and remained below 40 degrees for seven consecutive
days. ...

https://www.chron.com/sports/outdoors/article/Effects-lessons-of-1983-
freeze-evident-on-Texas-5092926.php

The December 1989 Cold Wave

Waco dropped to an astounding -4 on December 23, 1989, just one
degree shy of the all-time record low set in 1949

https://www.weather.gov/ilx/dec1989-cold

Intense Cold Wave of February 2011

On Tuesday, February 1st, 2011, an intense arctic air mass moved into
southern New Mexico ... the afternoon of the 2nd, and was followed by
several days of sub- freezing temperatures. ... deep into Central Texas,
with single-digit temperatures.

https://www.weather.gov/media/epz/Storm_Reports/Cold11/Feb2011Cold
Wx.pdf


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17505


Date: February 22, 2021 at 22:39:05
From: JTRIV, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Texas Was Warned a Decade Ago Its Grid Was Unready for Cold Read


Hi Alan,

OK, so they had experienced issues with cold in
Texas before. Were there studies done to show how
the addition of a large amount of wind power would
be more/less susceptible to cold power outages? When
the wind farms were proposed and funded was the cost
of preparing them for cold temperatures included in
the wind turbine budget?

You've shown this isn't the first time Texas has had
power outages from cold temperatures but was this
taken into account in building a large amount of
wind power? Can you possibly remove the politics and
think about the question?

Cheers

Jim


Responses:
[17507] [17508] [17511] [17514] [17518] [17520] [17525] [17527] [17519]


17507


Date: February 23, 2021 at 01:42:19
From: Alan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Texas Was Warned a Decade Ago Its Grid Was Unready for Cold Read

URL: https://www.ferc.gov/sites/default/files/2020-05/ReportontheSouthwestColdWeatherEventfromFebruary2011Report.pdf


Hard to not be politcial as the energy set up in Texas is set be laissez faire
and the recommendations here weren't mandatory.


Report that the article refers to:


Report on Outages and Curtailments During the Southwest Cold Weather
Event of February 1-5, 2011

Prepared by the Staffs of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and
the North American Electric Reliability Corporation

Causes and Recommendations

August 2011



Winterization

Generators and natural gas producers suffered severe losses of capacity
despite having received accurate forecasts of the storm. Entities in both
categories report having winterization procedures in place. However, the
poor performance of many of these generating units and wells suggests
that these procedures were either inadequate or were not adequately
followed.

The experiences of 1989 are instructive, particularly on the electric side.
In that year, as in 2011, cold weather caused many generators to trip,
derate, or fail to start. The PUCT investigated the occurrence and issued
a number of recommendations aimed at improving winterization on the
part of the generators. These recommendations were not mandatory, and
over the course of time implementation lapsed. Many of the generators
that experienced outages in 1989 failed again in 2011.

On the gas side, producers experienced production declines in all of the
recent prior cold weather events. While these declines rarely led to any
significant curtailments, electric generators in 2003 did experience, as a
result of gas shortages, widespread derates and in some cases outright
unit failure. It is reasonable to assume from this pattern that the level of
winterization put in place by producers is not capable of withstanding
unusually cold temperatures.

While extreme cold weather events are obviously not as common in the
Southwest as elsewhere, they do occur every few years. And when they
do, the cost in terms of dollars and human hardship is considerable. The
question of what to do about it is not an easy one to answer, as all
preventative measures entail some cost. However, in many cases, the
needed fixes would not be unduly expensive. Indeed, many utilities have
already undertaken improvements in light of their experiences during the
February event. This report makes a number of recommendations that the
task force believes are both reasonable economically and which would
substantially reduce the risk of blackouts and natural gas curtailments
during the next extreme cold weather event that hits the Southwest.

Electric and Gas Interdependency

The report also addresses the interdependency of the electric and natural
gas industries. Utilities are becoming increasingly reliant on gas-fired
generation, in large part because shale production has dramatically
reduced the cost of gas. Likewise, compressors used in the gas industry
are more likely than in the past to be powered with electricity, rather than
gas. As a result, deficiencies in the supply of either electricity or natural
gas affect not only consumers of that commodity, but of the other
commodity as well.

Gas shortages were not a significant cause of the electric generator
outages experienced during the February 2011 event, nor were rolling
blackouts a primary cause of the production declines at the wellhead.
Both, however, contributed to the problem, and in the case of natural gas
shortfalls in the Permian and Fort Worth Basins, approximately a quarter
of the decline was attributed to rolling blackouts or customer curtailments
affecting producers.

The report explores some of the issues relating to the effects of
shortages of one commodity on the other, including the question of
whether gas production and processing facilities should be deemed
“human needs” customers and thus exempted or given special
consideration for purposes of electric load shedding. However, any
resolution of the many issues arising from electric and natural gas
interdependency must be informed by an examination of more than one
cold weather event in one part of the country. For that reason, the report
does not offer specific recommendations in this area, but urges
regulatory and industry bodies to explore solutions to the many
interdependency problems which are likely to remain of concern in the
future.


A sample of the ERCOT generating units that experienced weather-
related failures, categorized by the specific cause of failure, provides
some insight into the variety of concerns with which the generator
operators had to contend during the event, and illustrates the complexity
of the protections needed for generating plant systems.
 Frozen Sensing Lines: Instrumentation provides operational data
necessary to monitor and control the generator’s systems. Typically,
sensing lines containing a standing water column sense changes in
pressure and a transducer produces an electronic signal that is
transmitted to instrumentation or controls. In sub-freezing temperatures,
if freeze protection is not employed on critical unit systems, the water in
the sensing lines freezes, causing faulty signals and subsequent unit trips
or derates. During the February event, frozen sensing lines were the
leading cause of outages, with steam drum sensing lines being the most
prevalent (43 units tripped from this cause alone).
 JK Spruce Unit 2, a 785 MW coal unit, tripped due to frozen sensing
lines that caused a false high water level reading in the steam drum.
 Ingleside Cogeneration lost two units due to frozen sensing lines. The
lines were heat traced, but the ground fault interrupter breakers
protecting the heat trace circuits tripped, resulting in a loss of 176 MW.
 Another unit tripped due to frozen sensing lines on feedwater heater
level controls. The freezing caused a high condensate level in a feedwater
heater, which in turn incorrectly initiated a trip of the unit.
 Non-drum sensing line failures included a unit whose vacuum system
became erratic when the sensing line to the auxiliary steam pressure
indication froze. Another unit tripped when the sensing lines to the rotor
air cooler level transmitters froze.


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17508


Date: February 23, 2021 at 02:01:48
From: Alan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Texas Was Warned a Decade Ago Its Grid Was Unready for Cold Read


 Low Temperature Limits: Wind turbines are typically designed to operate within a designated range of
temperatures, and have an automatic shutdown feature to protect their components if the range is exceeded.
Although manufacturers offer a “cold weather package”210 that allows a turbine to continue operating in colder
temperatures, it does not appear that the package is used in the Southwest.



Virtually all types of generating units encountered problems, whether viewed from the perspective of fuel type or
unit type, suggesting that the problems could not be attributed to a particular fuel or unit design. The breakdown is
as follows:

 SortedbyFuelType:
o Coal: 8 units; 4669 MW
o Natural Gas: 29 units; 3881 MW
o Distillate Oil: 1 unit; 257 MW
o Dual Fuel – Gas & Oil: 15 units; 4418 MW o Dual Fuel – Coal & Gas: 1 unit; 670 MW o Nuclear: 1 unit; 1250 MW *
o Petroleum Coke: 1 unit; 160 MW
This unit was forced off line the previous weekend due to the failure of an expansion joint in a steam condenser. An
attempt was made to start it up during the December 21-23 cold spell, but that failed due to equipment freeze-ups.
 SortedbyUnitType:
o Conventional Steam Turbine Generators: 32 units; 13,298 MW o Simple Cycle Gas Turbines: 7 units; 235 MW
o Combined Cycle Units: 17 units; 1772 MW

PUCT Recommendations

The PUCT staff investigated the cold weather event of 1989 and issued a report the following year that evaluated the
causes of the generator outages and made recommendations. Because the circumstances of the event, and the
causes of the outages, are so similar to those of the 2011 event, it is worth reproducing those recommendations
verbatim:232
 All utilities should ensure that they incorporate the lessons learned during December of 1989 into the design of
new facilities in order to ensure their reliability in extreme weather conditions.
 All utilities should implement procedures requiring a timely annual (each Fall) review of unit equipment and
procedures to ensure readiness for cold weather operations.


Responses:
[17511] [17514] [17518] [17520] [17525] [17527] [17519]


17511


Date: February 23, 2021 at 07:34:25
From: JTRIV, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Texas Was Warned a Decade Ago Its Grid Was Unready for Cold Read


Hi Alan,

This seems to be the most relevant passage:

"Although manufacturers offer a “cold weather
package”210 that allows a turbine to continue
operating in colder temperatures, it does not appear
that the package is used in the Southwest."

So not just in Texas but in the Southwest they don't
use the cold weather package. This doesn't surprise
me as in the south we get so little cold weather it
doesn't make economic sense to invest in cold
weather equipment.

So while you political people are slinging mud it
doesn't appear this is politics but basic economics.

Cheers

Jim


Responses:
[17514] [17518] [17520] [17525] [17527] [17519]


17514


Date: February 23, 2021 at 08:19:06
From: Alan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Texas Was Warned a Decade Ago Its Grid Was Unready for Cold Read


So not just in Texas but in the Southwest they don't
use the cold weather package. This doesn't surprise
me as in the south we get so little cold weather it
doesn't make economic sense to invest in cold
weather equipment.



"The (2011) storm, however, was not without precedent. There were prior
severe cold weather events in the Southwest in 1983, 1989, 2003, 2006,
2008, and 2010.

The experiences of 1989 are instructive, particularly on the electric side.
In that year, as in 2011, cold weather caused many generators to trip,
derate, or fail to start. The PUCT investigated the occurrence and issued
a number of recommendations aimed at improving winterization on the
part of the generators. These recommendations were not mandatory, and
over the course of time implementation lapsed. Many of the generators
that experienced outages in 1989 failed again in 2011."


Responses:
[17518] [17520] [17525] [17527] [17519]


17518


Date: February 23, 2021 at 11:18:06
From: JTRIV, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Yup, cold happens occasionally in even Texas


Hi Alan,

Yup, cold happens occasionally even in Texas. But I
still don't see anything saying they had planned for
and budgeted the winterization of these wind
turbines. You keep posting about how panels looking
at past failures made recommendations. But when
these wind farms were planned did they state these
would need to be winterized yearly for events that
happen every decade or so?

Cheers

Jim


Responses:
[17520] [17525] [17527] [17519]


17520


Date: February 23, 2021 at 15:33:37
From: Akira, [DNS_Address]
Subject: any thoughts about the deregulation issue?(NT)


(NT)


Responses:
[17525] [17527]


17525


Date: February 23, 2021 at 18:44:19
From: JTRIV, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: seems like a red herring


Hi Akira,

It seems like a bit of a red herring. Redhart
pointed out how El Paso Electric did plan for the
cold and had very few outages. Still this is for the
extreme southwest area that had less of an impact.
Still El Paso Electric performed well under
deregulation and is even owned by mega-corporation
JP Morgan Chase. I'm still willing to consider it...
I have just seen no sign deregulation had any impact
on the situation being discussed.

Cheers

Jim


Responses:
[17527]


17527


Date: February 24, 2021 at 08:44:39
From: Akira, [DNS_Address]
Subject: it's not(NT)


(NT)


Responses:
None


17519


Date: February 23, 2021 at 14:34:59
From: Alan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Yup, cold happens occasionally in even Texas


Look up what the 'R' stands for in ERCOT ;-)

Maybe the accountants will work out that the economic losses every decade
or so from extreme freezes are less than the cost in investing in and
servicing winter kit preparedness.

I personally think the billions ($15bn?) spent on the southern border wall
could have been better spent on counter measures from more devestating
invaders from the north...


Responses:
None


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