January 2021 forecast – A powerful Greenland blocking High will alter the Polar circulation and the weather, as we now head deeper into Winter
By Andrej Flis | Global weather | 02 January 2021
January 2021 has finally arrived, with very dynamic weather development. Looking at the latest forecasts, Winter could have a strong presence this month, thanks to the powerful high-pressure system over the Greenland-Polar area.;
We will take a weekly approach, breaking down the second winter month into weekly periods, looking at the pressure patterns and the corresponding weather and temperature distributions.
Since this forecast period is over 30 days long, we will be using the ensemble forecast system. This means that the forecast is composed of several individual calculations. The final forecast is an average of all the calculations, showing the prevailing idea and the main development trend.
WINTER 2020/2021 CONTINUES…
The meteorological winter began on December 1st and will last till February 28th. In this period, all the official winter statistics will be recorded. December to February period covers the 3 coldest months of the year, which is why this is designated as the meteorological Winter period.
Before winter, a lot has been said about the influence of the cold ENSO phase (La Nina) on the weather development, especially in our December winter forecast overview.
But in January 2021, new weather dynamics will enter the scene. Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) is one of the most powerful weather events that can occur in winter. Most often in late December and January.
We produced a high-resolution video that shows the high amplitude stratospheric warming in the first week of January 2021 weather development. In the video, we have the temperatures at the 10mb level (~30km altitude). ....
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