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16290
From: ryan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: 12 years to save the planet? Make that 18 months
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Climate change: 12 years to save the planet? Make that 18 months Matt McGrath 24 July 2019 Do you remember the good old days when we had "12 years to save the planet"? Now it seems, there's a growing consensus that the next 18 months will be critical in dealing with the global heating crisis, among other environmental challenges. Last year, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that to keep the rise in global temperatures below 1.5C this century, emissions of carbon dioxide would have to be cut by 45% by 2030. But today, observers recognise that the decisive, political steps to enable the cuts in carbon to take place will have to happen before the end of next year. The idea that 2020 is a firm deadline was eloquently addressed by one of the world's top climate scientists, speaking back in 2017. "The climate math is brutally clear: While the world can't be healed within the next few years, it may be fatally wounded by negligence until 2020," said Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, founder and now director emeritus of the Potsdam Climate Institute. The sense that the end of next year is the last chance saloon for climate change is becoming clearer all the time. "I am firmly of the view that the next 18 months will decide our ability to keep climate change to survivable levels and to restore nature to the equilibrium we need for our survival," said Prince Charles, speaking at a reception for Commonwealth foreign ministers recently. So why are the next 18 months so important? The Prince was looking ahead to a series of critical UN meetings that are due to take place between now and the end of 2020. Ever since a global climate agreement was signed in Paris in December 2015, negotiators have been consumed with arguing about the rulebook for the pact. But under the terms of the deal, countries have also promised to improve their carbon-cutting plans by the end of next year. Image copyright Getty Images Image caption Prince Charles has stressed how important the next 12 months are in tackling climate change One of the understated headlines in last year's IPCC report was that global emissions of carbon dioxide must peak by 2020 to keep the planet below 1.5C. Current plans are nowhere near strong enough to keep temperatures below the so-called safe limit. Right now, we are heading towards 3C of heating by 2100 not 1.5. As countries usually scope out their plans over five and 10 year timeframes, if the 45% carbon cut target by 2030 is to be met then the plans really need to be on the table by the end of 2020. What are the steps? The first major hurdle will be the special climate summit called by UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, which will be held in New York on 23 September. Mr Guterres has been clear that he only wants countries to come to the UN if they can make significant offers to improve their national carbon cutting plans. This will be followed by COP25 in Santiago, Chile, where the most important achievement will likely be keeping the process moving forward. But the really big moment will most likely be in the UK at COP26, which takes place at the end of 2020. The UK government believes it can use the opportunity of COP26, in a post-Brexit world, to show that Britain can build the political will for progress, in the same way the French used their diplomatic muscle to make the Paris deal happen. "If we succeed in our bid (to host COP26) then we will ensure we build on the Paris agreement and reflect the scientific evidence accumulating now that we need to go further and faster," said Environment Secretary Michael Gove, in what may have been his last major speech in the job. "And we need at COP26 to ensure other countries are serious about their obligations and that means leading by example. Together we must take all the steps necessary to restrict global warming to at least 1.5C." Reasons to be cheerful? Whether it's the evidence of heatwaves, or the influence of Swedish school striker Greta Thunberg, or the rise of Extinction Rebellion, there has been a marked change in public interest in stories about climate change and a hunger for solutions that people can put in place in their own lives. Ideas like the green new deal in the US, which might have seemed unfeasible a few years ago have gained real traction. Some countries like the UK have gone even further and legislated for net zero emissions by 2050, the long-term goal that will keep temperatures down. Prince Charles' sense that the next 18 months are critical is shared by some climate negotiators. "Our group of small island developing states share Prince Charles's sense of the profound urgency for ambitious climate action," said ambassador Janine Felson from Belize who is the chief strategist for the Alliance of Small Island States group in the UN. "All at once we are witness to a collective convergence of public mobilisation, worsening climatic impacts and dire scientific warnings that compel decisive climate leadership." "Without question, 2020 is a hard deadline for that leadership to finally manifest itself." Reasons to be fearful? With exquisite timing, the likely UK COP in 2020 could also be the moment the US finally pulls out of the Paris agreement. But if Donald Trump doesn't prevail in the presidential election that position could change, with a democrat victor likely to reverse the decision. Either step could have huge consequences for the climate fight. Right now a number of countries seem keen to slow down progress. Last December the US, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Russia blocked the IPCC special report on 1.5C from UN talks. Just a few weeks ago in Bonn, further objections from Saudi Arabia meant it was again dropped from the UN negotiations, much to annoyance of small island states and developing nations. There will be significant pressure on the host country to ensure substantial progress. But if there's ongoing political turmoil around Brexit then the government may not have the bandwidth to unpick the multiple global challenges that climate change presents. "If we cannot use that moment to accelerate ambition we will have no chance of getting to a 1.5 or 2C limit," said Prof Michael Jacobs, from the University of Sheffield, a former climate adviser to Prime Minister Gordon Brown. "Right now there's nothing like enough understanding of, or commitment to, this among leading countries. That's why the UN Secretary General is holding a summit in September. "It's great that the COP might be in UK because we have a big civil society ecosystem and much higher climate awareness than in most other countries. But the movement here has barely started to think about how to apply sufficient pressure." There's also been a strong warning shot from the UK's Committee on Climate Change (CCC). At the launch of their review of progress made by the UK government on tackling climate change, the country was found not to be on track despite legislating for net zero emissions by 2050. "The government must show it is serious about its legal obligations…[its] credibility really is at stake here," said CCC chief executive Chris Stark. "There is a window over the next 12-18 months to do something about this. If we don't see that, I fear the government will be embarrassed at COP26." And it's not all about climate change While the decisions taken on climate change in the next year or so will be critical, there are a number of other key gatherings on the environment that will shape the nature on preserving species and protecting our oceans in the coming decades. Earlier this year a major study on the losses being felt across the natural world as result of broader human impacts caused a huge stir among governments. The IPBES report showed that up to one million species could be lost in coming decades.  To address this, governments will meet in China next year to try to agree a deal that will protect creatures of all types. The Convention on Biological Diversity is the UN body tasked with putting together a plan to protect nature up to 2030. Next year's meeting could be a "Paris agreement" moment for the natural world. If agreement is found it's likely there will be an emphasis on sustainable farming and fishing. It will urge greater protection for species and a limit on deforestation. Next year, the UN Convention on the Laws of the Sea will also meet to negotiate a new global oceans treaty. This has the potential to make a real difference, according to UK Environment Secretary Michael Gove. "We have been convinced by the evidence of environmental degradation which occurs without adequate protection," he said in a speech last week. "And that is why the United Kingdom has taken the lead in ensuring at least 30% of the ocean we are responsible for is protected by 2030 - a trebling of the present target. We will be asking all nations to sign up to that goal." If all this comes to pass, the world might have a fighting chance of preserving our natural environment. But the challenges are huge, the political involvement patchy. So don't hold your breath! |
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16291
From: ryan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: 12 years to save the planet? Make that 18 months
URL: https://www.counterpunch.org/2019/07/26/roaming-charges-and-then-there-were-three/
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+ The history of life on Earth is melting away. Soon there will only be 6000 years of ice left and Biblical estimates of the age of the Earth will be fulfilled… + The biggest cities in the US are leaking methane at twice the rate scientists once thought: “When burned for heat or power, methane emits less carbon dioxide than fossil fuels such as coal. But when leaked directly into the atmosphere, its warming effect can be dozens of times stronger than CO2.” + The current rate of ocean warming is equal to five Hiroshima-size atomic bombs exploding every second. + Speaking of atomic bombs, a few days ago there was a wildfire sweeping across Hanford, where much of the soil and many of the trees, scrub and sagebrush are contaminated with radioactive particles. Then a few days later, one broke out at the equally leaky nuclear “lab” in Idaho, burning 90,000 acres in a single day. Climate change as WMD… + Dozens of all-time and monthly records broken on Tuesday in cities across France as temperatures soared to 108.6ºF amid an intense European heat wave. I thought of what a day like today might have been like for Marcel Proust, confined in his cork-lined room on the Boulevard Hausmann, all his tasty Madelienes baking on the nightstand…. + Both Netherlands and Belgium each recorded the highest temperatures in their history this week. + The hottest summers in Europe over the past 500 years have ALL occurred in the past 17 years. + James Kilgore: “Heat Wave. My last day in prison in Tracy, CA it was 114 degrees. We smashed out every window to get some air. Then the water went out and the toilets wouldn’t flush. Silicon Valley was 50 miles away. I wonder if their water went out too?” + You don’t have to go to the beach, the beach is coming to you…“Sous la plage, les pavés!” + During her acceptance speech for the Freedom Prize, Greta Thornberg, the Malala of the climate movement, demanded that “adults be held accountable” for the climate crisis. How about holding corporations, private equity, hedge funds and the military industrial complex accountable for climate change, Greta? + For the first 205 days of the year, the average temperatures on the Arctic Coast of Alaska have been 9°F above normal. Do you realize, Greta, that thousands of activists, ecologists and scientists around the world have been fighting the coal companies, oil and gas companies and the military on the ground, in the courts and in congress for decades now and that they have a pretty clear idea of where the political and economic pressure points are, don’t you? Greta is a novelty act, supported by foundations that have been hostile the very kind of radical change that is needed to confront the thing she warns about it. + In 2016, US farms used 1.2 billion lbs of pesticides. More than one-fourth — 322 million lbs — were pesticides banned in the EU. 26 million lbs were banned in Brazil. 40 million lbs were outlawed by China. + Permian Basin water use grew nearly ninefold from 2011-2016 as drillers added more than 10,000 wells. An average Permian well in 2018 used more than 15 million gallons, compared with 7 million in 2013. Water = 54% of fracking costs in Permian. + Air pollution kills more than 30,000 people in the US every year. + Air pollution is a bigger threat to your life than smoking. + According to a study from NIH, “infants born to women exposed to high levels of air pollution in the week before delivery are more likely to be admitted to NICU. Depending on the type of pollution, chances for NICU admission increased between 4% and 147%.” + Mining companies have rarely been held accountable for the ruins they’ve made in the past. Now they won’t even have to pretend to make an effort. + A Day at the Beach: If it ain’t covered in oil, plastic or dead whales, it’s awash in human shit… + Michael Colby: “There were 2400 Vermont family dairy farmers when Bernie first went to Congress to “fix the problem.” There are now 675 left, and he’s done nothing to stop the downward spiral.” + Robin Silver, MD: “Say we’re driving from Texas and just go through these rivers: Rio Grande is dead, and then you start moving into Arizona. The Gila, dead. Santa Cruz, dead. Salt, dead. You cross the San Pedro at Benson, it’s pretty dead, but the river flows from Mexico as you go south and it’s still alive. Same thing with the Verde.” |
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