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9782 |
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Date: February 20, 2017 at 20:45:11
From: Polydactyl in N. Bay, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Links to current Orovile Dam watch |
URL: Oroville Dam update, Monday 20 Feb. New details... blancolirio |
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First check out the vid at top. It was posted under one of the big threads about Oroville on glp but it deserves a quick watch about some of the real 'watch' on this dam. It's not only about the rising water from the huge Feather River watershed over the next few days. There's a bit of luck involved in hoping that the main spillway will hold as they offload the lake burden, while cleaning up the foot of the dam where the power house is located so they can run the turbines. The auxiliary spillway is now deemed a 'very last resort', not to be used except in a dire emergency, due to it's lack of integrity despite all the concrete pours (on wet soil btw) and 'rock shots' below it. [There's going to be a new drink called a 'rock shot' coming soon, I just know it- :)]
The original hole is now straight across the main spillway with a huge amount of water diverging off the spillway itself (a droite), towards the dam face. They are trying to clean up the debris at the bottom of the MS so the water doesn't have a chance to back up towards the dam face. Also there is a new ripper at the side rail at the top of the main spillway (a gauche), with a trickle that is now bigger, running closer to the ground below the aux. spillway.
The website Sheila posted is fantastic, showing all the cracks and fixes prior to this storm, all except a radar or inspection of drains on the underneath side of the spillway. It seems that extra investigation wasn't necessary if everything 'looked ok' visually on the surface (weird). At the bottom of the spillway you can see where concrete is popping up on the left side with much less water flow there and more to the right, off the spillway. If there are any cracks along the actual wall at the top of the spillways or dam itself, then they are in big trouble if the walls are to hold a heavy burden beyond this storm, into remaining February and March rains. They need a rain break soon where they can stop all water in the spillways and do something about the main spillway. The MS holes are now almost beyond repair possibly with breaks in 2 places, likely to get bigger. Honestly to me, it will be a miracle if that dam holds up through runoff and more rain. What are the rain forecasts for the end of February and March, I wonder? Those geoengineers will have to turn off the rain and then turn it back on again so we don't go back into drought, LOL.
On another note about the flooding of the Sacto Valley, MrMBB33 pointed out in a video today that Rancho Seco, near Elk Grove, is at moderate flooding already. The decommissioned Rancho Seco NPP now holds 22 metric TONS of uranium, casked and in concrete bunkers. The site is on very very flat ground, next to Cosumnes river in Wilton and likely in the path of more flooding. In 2018 there is a plan to move all that uranium to a new site in Andrews, Texas. Meanwhile I hope it doesn't go underwater. Personally I think we should send all the uranium to Queen Elizabeth's backyard. Queen Urania should be her official name with all her uranium mines- :P
There's no telling what's going to happen in Siskiyou and Shasta counties after all the rain has fallen. I heard they are in mandatory evacuation in some places below the Shasta Dam? I remember when there was NO WATER in that reservoir, wowsa. Some say that the snow pack is already melting or melted (true?) so the runoff will be the worst problem in the near future, a couple of days after the heavier rains stop.
Oroville Lake Levels- Outlfow/Inflow
http://rdcfeeds.redding.com/lakelevels/oro.cfm
Links to all the reservoir maps (click for updates)
http://www.sacbee.com/news/state/california/water-and-drought/article133579859.html#2
Doomer Doug (link below) shows the diversion (to the left) near the top of the main spillway. This could lead to a bigger hole and more water running in the area below the auxiliary spillway where they don't want it. Except for the blue-gray bedrock you see on any of the pics, all the orangish-reddish bedrock is very weathered. I read that a rock climber says he's climbed in that area and the rock is very friable, not good for toe holds. Another guy questioned the (wet) clay lining of the dam face itself after years of drought, if it still has integrity to hold top levels of water. We shall see. We shall see. I hope the result is YES, it will hold. Then they need a real big break to rebuild that spillway and re-engineer the auxiliary spillway.
The area that busted on the main spillway is below the last set of repairs. The new hole now is a clean horizontal break across the spillway (maybe it will fall down entirely at some point) and is in the steepest vertical drop over the rock surface. Also, there was a lot of erosion on the sides of the spillway from the drought, more dirt and fewer trees, etc. The scary part is probably what we can't see! People living below the dam I think won't be out of harm's way for a good week, given the runoff potential from the Feather River watershed above the dam.
https://doomerdoug.wordpress.com/
The doom is mostly speculation with a couple potentially scary unknowns at present.
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[9783] [9784] [9785] [9787] [9789] [9786] [9788] |
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9783 |
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Date: February 20, 2017 at 21:46:26
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Links to current Orovile Dam watch |
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Responses:
[9784] [9785] [9787] [9789] [9786] [9788] |
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9784 |
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Date: February 20, 2017 at 22:14:20
From: Polydactyl in N. Bay, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Links to current Orovile Dam watch |
URL: https://www.parks.ca.gov/?page_id=29411 |
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Ohh dear, there's more. Here's the top of the Oroville Dam cam, at link. There is a boat load of trucks zooming back and forth on top of the dam, to where the main spillway and aux. spillway meets. I can't see well enough to know what's happening beyond that point, i.e., aux. spillway.
Not only that, check out the latest reservoir in/out water flow - merde! I hope somehow these figures will go down, asap. I was wondering why, around 2-3pm today, there were no figures posted. I just checked back now, and the lake's been rising ever since that time, now inflow way exceeding outflow! Omagosh, what are they gonna do now if they won't use the aux. spillway except for a dire emergency? Maybe the dire emergency is coming up, overnight? Dang, in the middle of the night - not good. Wow, this is just one day of higher lake levels
http://rdcfeeds.redding.com/lakelevels/oro.cfm
SURFACE, FEET 849.80
STORAGE, AF 2805669
OUT, CFS 60234
IN, CFS 86935 [Yikes- :o]
RAIN, INCHES 39.32
RIVER RELEASE, CFS 65429
The question is, how much more runoff are they going to get? Maximum capacity is 900 feet, probably a little less than that for 'margin of safety' let alone integrity of the dam structures. It's time to pray for a miracle.
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[9785] [9787] [9789] [9786] [9788] |
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9785 |
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Date: February 20, 2017 at 22:56:33
From: Polydactyl in N. Bay, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Links to current Orovile Dam watch |
URL: http://rdcfeeds.redding.com/lakelevels/oro.cfm |
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Okay looks like MS spillway release is getting lower, for some reason. Within the last hour, from 9-10pm, there was an increase of 33,340 CFS into the reservoir. For real?
New figures:
Lake surface storage OUT IN
FT AF CFS CFS
849.98 2808082 60124 93264
With all the activity on the top of the dam, in a rainstorm no less, something's up. Now, the lake inflow rose quickly today, then more water was released, and the lake level went back down. Now there seems to be a bit of a stall in the spillway release, so the lake is rising exponentially.
I'm going to dredge up the emergency radio channel (and post) so see if I can hear anything. I printed off some of the codes today. Most of the time they talk too fast and there is a lot of interference noise, so we'll see.
Stay tuned.
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[9787] [9789] [9786] [9788] |
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9787 |
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Date: February 21, 2017 at 12:03:13
From: Terra11, [DNS_Address]
Subject: to current Orovile Dam watchPolydactlyl Thankyou SO much for updates(NT) |
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[9789] |
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9789 |
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Date: February 21, 2017 at 14:18:13
From: Polydactyl in N. Bay, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: to current Orovile Dam watchPolydactlyl Thankyou SO much for... |
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Sure thing and ya, it does look better today, except for spray coming up from TWO areas below the dam, with no pics from the face of the dam, and a helicopter flying near area of '2nd spray' this am. It 'almost' looks like the bottom of the main spillway broke through the river bank to flow on land on the other side, along with another stream of spray, closer in to the dam and similar to the trickle that was flowing out near the top of the spillway from another hole (left side). My god that spillway is a mess! The lake looks lower so that's a very good thing. They are putting everything they got into saving this dam, very impressive considering it was in pouring rain yesterday.
In looking at info. about the larger Oroville quake a while back, some think that releasing of water is more rupture inducing than the filling or maybe it's a little of both both that unhinges segments, I've no idea. Others think that the lake filling clamps down the fault, this one south of Oroville along the mountains. I figure it takes a lot of filling and releasing to move a fault south of the dam, so I'm not even considering that thought for now. Two weeks or end of rainy season, who knows what will happen. I hope they are monitoring that fault.
I'll go over to metabunk site that Sheila posted, to get the skinny of the dam conditions today- ;)
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9786 |
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Date: February 21, 2017 at 05:30:51
From: Johnl, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Links to current Orovile Dam watch |
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you wrote -- Now there seems to be a bit of
a stall in the spillway release, so the lake is rising
exponentially.
that’s kind of scary.
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[9788] |
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9788 |
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Date: February 21, 2017 at 14:02:29
From: Polydactyl in N. Bay, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Links to current Orovile Dam watch |
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It turns out they are holding back releasing from other reservoirs higher up. Eegads the water will have nowhere to go with more storms except into the O. reservoir. I'm waiting to see a pic of the front of the dam now. So far, nothing. I see two spray areas so something is releasing near a diversion near the top of the main spillway, I suspect (speculation only).
A small favor in all this flooding would be for the NPP at Rancho Seco storage site in Wilton, E. Sacto, to NOT flood. E. Sacto looks like it got heavy precipitation. There are a lot of evacuations in progress today near dams all over Cali, wow. Poor peeps standing in knee deep water with a few belongings in their arms..geeze- :(
First thing this morning, after gusts of up to 45 mph last night(!), I checked on my hummers. They came out, well 3 of them, to say hello, so I felt better- :) The doves and robins don't do so well in big storms - haven't seen them yet. There are finches and chickadees but fewer of them today. The cover blew off the BBQ, a branch or two fell, and things were blown all over the yard, now mostly face down in the big pond that is our backyard, lol.
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