Disasters

[ Disasters ] [ Main Menu ]

  

11361

Date: April 03, 2020 at 19:51:52
From: ShakyD, [DNS_Address]
Subject: One million+ by Easter


C19 is doubling approx every 4.5 days.

We will probably see one million+ US cases by Easter.
30k+ US dead.


Responses:
[11366] [11362] [11363] [11365] [11374] [11364]

11366

Date: April 06, 2020 at 03:26:34
From: shatterbrain, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: One million+ by Easter


Happy Easter !


Responses:
None

11362

Date: April 03, 2020 at 21:07:57
From: ryan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: One million+ by Easter


deaths are doubling faster than that...grim...


Responses:
[11363] [11365] [11374] [11364]

11363

Date: April 03, 2020 at 22:02:59
From: ShakyD, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: One million+ by Easter


That is where the "+" come into play.
I try to make my estimates conservative.


Responses:
[11365] [11374] [11364]

11365

Date: April 05, 2020 at 20:23:08
From: ShakyD, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: One million+ by Easter


Good news (maybe):
My estimates, which I thought to be conservative may turn out to be too high.

The rate of increase has slowed down the last couple of days.
Social distancing may be more effective than my methods predicted.
On the other hand, there could be a lag in reporting, which would become evident if a surge follows.
Waiting for Monday's results before I update my estimate.


Responses:
[11374]

11374

Date: April 09, 2020 at 17:39:11
From: ShakyD, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: One million+ by Easter (NOT)


The curve is flattening.
New estimate: about 500,000 cases by Easter.

Half a million may sound like a lot, but it is only 0.15% of the total US population.
That is 1 out of 660 people.

Herd immunity is a long way off.


Responses:
None

11364

Date: April 04, 2020 at 16:43:06
From: ryan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: One million+ by Easter


according to the current johns hopkins numbers, the global death rate is now over 5% and the rate in the US is pushing 3%...


Responses:
None

[ Disasters ] [ Main Menu ]

Generated by: TalkRec 1.17
    Last Updated: 30-Aug-2013 14:32:46, 80837 Bytes
    Author: Brian Steele