Another Eruption Observed February 10, 2024 @ 04:30 UTC (UPDATED) Solar activity sure is heating up. An eruption registering as an M3.4 solar flare was just observed off the southeast limb at 03:54 UTC (Feb 10). A large coronal mass ejection (CME) is also seen emerging in updated LASCO imagery. Because this is yet another limb event, it too should be directed away from Earth. More to follow whenever necessary.
UPDATE: New imagery suggests the CME produced by this event off the southeast limb may actually be larger in scope than the X3.3/CME observed on Friday. If only us aurora enthusiasts could catch a break with an Earth directed eruption! Although not for certain, I would not be surprised it energetic particles from this event adds onto or prolongs the ongoing radiation storm.
This is a different sunspot than you are speaking of...I answered that question in your second post in this thread.
As to solar space weather expectations it revolves around predicting based on the current knowns and as with most all things in this world unexpected outcomes can happen.
Here is the skinny from spaceweather.com on the current possibility of more X flares from this same sunspot that produced this solar flare:
-CAPTION: Sunspot AR3576 has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI
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Date: February 10, 2024 at 14:12:37 From: georg, [DNS_Address] Subject: Re: --Another Solar Eruption Observed-- Feb. 10th--
from the link posted some time ago regarding AR3536 (or is it AR3636?)
"All sunspots have two magnetic poles, plus (+) and minus (-).
They're supposed to be oriented side-by-side, like this: .
Instead, the magnetic field of AR3536 is perpendicular to normal: .
This twist may explain why the sunspot is so active.
Twisted magnetic fields harbor extra energy for solar flares.
In the past 2 days, AR3636 has unleashed four M-class flares and an X5-class flare that ranks as the most powerful explosion of Solar Cycle 25 (so far).
If this strange magnetization persists, more flares may be in the offing. Stay tuned!"
No, this flare was from a different sunspot. FWIW, there have been other sunspot anomalies over the years since I began watching for solar weather every day (since around 2004 or so). Here are more details from spaceweather.com on this solar flare:
ALMOST-X FLARE: Earth-orbiting satellites have just detected an M9-class solar flare from Earth-facing sunspot AR3576 (Feb 10th @ 2703 UT). This movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows that the blast was directly facing Earth:
The powerful explosion was only percentage points from category X, so any CME it may have thrown in our direction probably has plenty of power. We don't yet know for sure that such a CME exists. Stay tuned for confirmation from SOHO coronagraphs in the hours ahead. CME Impact alerts