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47346
From: shatterbrain , [DNS_Address]
Subject: Midwest in the bullseye this weekend
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DISCUSSION Day 4/Friday – Arklatex and Mid-MS Valley, East to OH/TN Valleys A complex forecast scenario remains for Day 4/Friday, with a large area of severe potential expected from the Arklatex into the Mid-MS Valley, eastward to portions of the OH and TN Valleys. A strong mid/upper trough is forecast to eject eastward across the Plains and Midwest. Intense deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the region as a surface low deepens over IA and shifts east/northeast across the Great Lakes. A strong cold front attendant to the low will sweep across the region, while strong southerly low-level flow transports 60s surface dewpoints northward across the Midwest ahead of the front. A bi-modal severe threat still appears possible, with one area of enhanced potential possible closer to the surface low, and another further south along the cold front in the Mid-South vicinity. Some forecast details still remain uncertain, including the amplitude of the trough, and quality of northward moisture return/destabilization over the Midwest. Surface dewpoints will be lower near the surface low over IA and into parts of MO/IL/and the Ohio Valley. However, stronger large-scale ascent and more intense wind fields will be focused over the Midwest. These areas also may remain cooler due to early day showers and cloud cover in the strong warm advection regime. Nevertheless, a tornado threat near the surface low still appears possible. With time, upscale growth into a line tracking across the Midwest seems reasonable given strong forcing and deep-layer shear parallel to the cold front, and a transition to a damaging wind threat may occur by evening. Higher quality moisture and instability will reside further south from the Arklatex toward the TN Valley vicinity. Convection will likely develop by late morning along the cold front in the Arklatex vicinity and spread eastward through period. Stronger large-scale ascent will be focused further north, but intense wind fields will still be across the broad warm sector. All hazards appear possible, with a mixed mode of supercells and linear convection. |
47351
From: shatterbrain , [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Midwest in the bullseye this weekend
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Detailed Outlook SPC AC 300557 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS…AND ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS…THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL…EXTREME WESTERN KENTUCKY…WESTERN TENNESSEE…AND FAR NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI ### SUMMARY Intense and widespread severe thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon into the overnight hours across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley and Mid-South vicinity, eastward to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Intense, damaging gusts and several tornadoes (some strong and long-track) are expected. |
47352
From: Eve, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Midwest in the bullseye this weekend
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So far a lot of damage as well as loss... does not seem like it's over yet. |
Responses:
[47353]
47353
From: shatterbrain, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Midwest in the bullseye this weekend
| Lots of folks found themselves in a world of hurt last Friday. |
Responses:
None
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