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23236 |
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Date: April 02, 2024 at 18:25:30
From: Leonardo, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Mirrored report: Mag. 7.0+ 19-27 Mar. 24 03:20 UTC March 19 |
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Mag. 7.0+ 19-27 Mar. 24 03:20 UTC
March 19
#22. Forecasting a magnitude 7.0 + or larger quake to
strike "somewhere in the world" during the eight (8) day
period starting at:
3:20 UTC, 19 Mar. 2024 to
to
3:20 UTC 27 Mar. 2024
This is an experimental "timing only" forecast
__"For Entertainment Purposes Only"__.
This is a test to see if previous experimental results/
(inferred) correlations duplicate / repeat moving
forward
OR
if they are merely the result of coincidence (or chance
odds) and therefore any presumed physical linkage
concepts maybe unsupported and maybe do not exist
Posted: 19 Mar. 24 12:12 UTC
-------- results within time period:
From tsunami.gov:
03-23-2024 20:22:07740 Mi.4.1° S143° EIN NEW GUINEA,
PAPUA NEW GUINEAAK/BC/US West Coast Informational #1
Select Resource Obs/Forecasts Travel Time MapTEX File
CAP File English Message 1 Spanish Message 1
03-23-2024 20:30:2303-23-2024 20:22:07740 Mi.4.1° S143°
ENEW GUINEA PAPUA NEW GUINEAGuam/CNMI Informational #1
Select Resource Obs/Forecasts TEX File CAP File English
Message 1
03-23-2024 20:30:0703-23-2024 20:22:07740 Mi.4.1° S143°
ENEW GUINEA PAPUA NEW GUINEAAmerican Samoa
Informational #1 Select Resource Obs/Forecasts TEX File
CAP File English Message 1
03-23-2024 20:29:5203-23-2024 20:22:07740 Mi.4.1° S143°
ENEW GUINEA PAPUA NEW GUINEAHawaii Informational #1
Select Resource Obs/Forecasts TEX File CAP File English
Message 1
03-23-2024 20:29:1703-23-2024 20:22:07740 Mi.4.1° S143°
ENEW GUINEA PAPUA NEW GUINEANon-US/Canada Pacific
Informational #1 Select Resource Obs/Forecasts TEX File
CAP File English Message 1
Earthquake.usgs.gov set Mag. to 6.9:
M 6.9 - 38 km ENE of Ambunti, Papua New Guinea
Time
2024-03-23 20:22:04 (UTC)
Location
4.139°S 143.159°E
Depth
40.2 km
I consider this to be a "successful forecast" subject to
later revision etc.
Quake info. Posted at 01:18 UTC 3 April 2024
EB: 040324 01:24 UTC
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Responses:
[23237] [23252] [23255] [23238] [23253] [23256] [23258] [23259] |
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23237 |
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Date: April 02, 2024 at 19:00:04
From: Leonardo, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Mirrored report: Mag. 6.7+ 31 Mar 24 to 4 Apr 24 22:00 UTC |
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(Posted late after the watch period opened and
After the M. 7.5 quake time).
Forecast B:
Using a second method (B) I'm forecasting a mag. 6.7+
earthquake to strike anywhere within the next 4 days
starting at 22:00 utc on 31 March 2024.
Posted: 3-Apr-24 at 01:44 UTC
Note: Posted late after the start of the watch time
period (due to being sidetracked).
---------- Results (on late after the fact post):
Earthquake.usgs.gov reported:
M 7.4 - 18 km SSW of Hualien City, Taiwan
Time
2024-04-02 23:58:11 (UTC)
Location
23.819°N 121.562°E
Depth
34.8 km
This would be considered a "successful forecast" for
this forecast method B.
Tsunami.gov also had 8 stations reporting the
same magnitude 7.5 quake.
See tsunami.gov
Quake results info. reported on 3 April 24 01:54 UTC.
(Forecast and results posted after the M. 7.5 event.
This post is tracking the method and it's results.)
E: 040324 02:00 UTC
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Responses:
[23252] [23255] [23238] [23253] [23256] [23258] [23259] |
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23252 |
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Date: April 13, 2024 at 15:01:03
From: Leonardo, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Mirrored report: Mag. 6.7+ 31 Mar 24 to 4 Apr 24 22:00 UTC |
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About 13 hours after the close of the forecasted
Window (of 4 days) a Mag. 6.7 happened.
Tsunami.gov has 5 separate stations all reporting
a Mag. 6.7. Here's the first report:
04-05-2024 11:03:17 6.7 132 Mi. 19.1° N
145.6° E ABOUT 23 MILES NORTH OF AGRIHAN
Guam/CNMI Informational #1
Select Resource
If the Forecast window was set to ~ 4.55 days
(versus 4.0) a second event "hit" would have tallied.
The aegument that tsunami.gov only posts quakes
that might produce a tsunami is invalid since it posts
Small quakes < Mag. 4.x and which are near the exact
center interior of Alaska )for example)
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Responses:
[23255] |
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23255 |
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Date: April 14, 2024 at 12:40:54
From: Skywise, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Mirrored report: Mag. 6.7+ 31 Mar 24 to 4 Apr 24 22:00 UTC |
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"The aegument that tsunami.gov only posts quakes
that might produce a tsunami is invalid since it posts
Small quakes < Mag. 4.x and which are near the exact
center interior of Alaska )for example) "
The next time you see one of these could you please point it out to me?
The only small magnitudes I've ever seen listed are still all along
coast lines, where they could potentially generate a local tsunami due
to a quake induced landslide. (see 1958 Lituya Bay for extreme example)
Brian
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Responses:
None |
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23238 |
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Date: April 03, 2024 at 08:33:45
From: Skywise, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Mirrored report: Mag. 6.7+ 31 Mar 24 to 4 Apr 24 22:00 UTC |
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Am I understanding correctly? You are posting that you
made a forecast that is fulfilled by the Taiwan quake,
but are posting the forecast AFTER the Taiwan quake?
Brian
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Responses:
[23253] [23256] [23258] [23259] |
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23253 |
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Date: April 13, 2024 at 15:31:32
From: Leonardo, [DNS_Address]
Subject: That's what is written three (3x) times in the post. |
URL: http://earthboppin.net/talkshop/rollem/messages/23200.html |
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Are you 'autistic spectrum' are just
trolling (to support your 'oh so
keenly perceptive" self-image construct &
your (pseudo science based) "debunking"
Vaudville schtick ?).
In a post below you missed a major
point rendering your pontificating
comments moot.
http://earthboppin.net/talkshop/rollem/messages/23200.ht
ml
(No - I don't expect you to ever
figure out the pitfall/fail in your
thinking either.)
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Responses:
[23256] [23258] [23259] |
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23256 |
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Date: April 14, 2024 at 12:44:49
From: Skywise, [DNS_Address]
Subject: loose the personal attacks and attitude(NT) |
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Responses:
[23258] [23259] |
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23258 |
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Date: April 15, 2024 at 10:43:41
From: ryan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: loose the personal attacks and attitude(NT) |
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loose -> not tight
lose -> not win
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Responses:
[23259] |
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23259 |
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Date: April 15, 2024 at 15:38:25
From: pamela, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: loose the personal attacks and attitude(NT) |
URL: https://youtu.be/M0WfvGjMUPc?si=jgNmSa5rKjcgB5Nf |
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Responses:
None |
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