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23208
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Ground Tilt Sensors - Feb. 27, 2024
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EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING GROUND TILT CHARTS Posted by EQF on February 27, 2024 Once again, I am recommending that people who are interested in earthquake forecasting, people who live near fault zones, and people who have friends or relatives who live near fault zones should create a link to my Data.html Web page and check it now and then. On my Data.html Web page there are PNG picture files that display the data that ground tilt sensors are detecting in Europe - Asia areas. By watching those picture charts such as the two below, you can see how strain is building in fault zones. Unfortunately, I have not been able to make contact with the people who are doing the ground strain sensor work and get them to explain to me EXACTLY where each of the charts is pointing. However, even without that information it can be seen from the charts that strain is building in some fault zone. Then after a really powerful earthquake occurs at some location, one or more of the charts should show a dramatic change in the shape of the lines on the charts. Then it can be determined WHERE the charts are pointing. I haven't yet had time to do that type of study myself. Also, since I have been creating PNG copies of those charts we really haven't had an extremely powerful earthquake occur. It is just a matter of time until we do. These are personal opinions. EQF
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23212
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Ground Tilt Data Chart Update - Mar. 2, 2024
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Posted by EQF on March 2, 2024 The charts discussed here are updated probably at least once a week. So, 6 months from now, someone reading this post will see the new charts instead of the ones shown today. When one of these charts is of special importance I will usually create a separate copy that will remain permanent and not be updated. Below are the latest updates for my own Earthquake Forecasting Chart-C and Chart-CL. Chart-CL uses vertical yellow - orange lines to show longitudes where fault zones might be active. One location I am watching is in the Southwest Pacific Ocean area. Below those charts are all of the Ground Tilt Charts that can be seen on my Data.html Web page. You can see where some of them have line shapes that are changing rapidly while others are changing slowly. Unfortunately, I don't presently know exactly where each of those charts is pointing. These are personal opinions. Regards to all, EQF
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23209
From: ao, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Ground Tilt Sensors - Feb. 27, 2024
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“Data.html” Full url, please. Thx |
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23210
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: WEB Address and a Ground Tilt Data Comment - Mar. 2, 2024
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WEB ADDRESS AND A GROUND TILT DATA COMMENT Posted by EQF on March 2, 2024 COMMENTS ON THE GROUND TILT DATA The Europe - Asia area ground tilt PNG charts that can be seen on my Data.html Web page probably deal mainly with fault zones in the Europe - Asia - Western Pacific ocean areas. It would surprise me it they could register any approaching earthquake activity anywhere in the lower 48 U.S. states. I believe that some of them can show Hawaii fault zone information. I would expect that they might also be able to detect some Alaska fault zone activity. Hi an, I generally visit this forum only a few times a week. So it can take me a few days to see and then respond to a post. I have posted directions for how to find my Web site so many times on this board that I thought that everyone reading these posts would know where it is by now. In the future I plan to try to include it with any post that discusses my Web site. Because of Internet security issues I don't post my direct address here or in E-mail notes. Hackers can get into just about anything on the Internet and make changes to a Web address that can redirect people to some dangerous Internet location. They might then be able to con them into giving them some money. What I do instead is advise people to go to any major search engine and type in the following line. At the top of or near the top of the returned search list there should be a listing for my Internet home page. My forecast data and the ground tilt data are on the Data.html Web page. earthquake research index.html Data.html My personal forecast data are highly complex. But, there are specialty files on my Web site that would enable governments and individuals interested in earthquake forecasting to easily evaluate the data. Good luck, These are personal opinions EQF |
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23213
From: ao, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: WEB Address and a Ground Tilt Data Comment - Mar. 2, 2024
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Aloha EQF, thanks for the reply. I am curious, do you know the reason for the tilt meters you're watching? You say "fault zones" yet I am curious about specific installations and what forces they're initially intended to record? In other words there's a lot of reasons for ground deformation, but what are the ones being watched for with the equipment you're watching? I have been monitoring ground deformation in Hawaii via a network of tilt meters for decades. I am gifted in that the observatory here, HVO, has a very large network of tilt as will as GPS and seismic stations that together give an observer a pretty high resolution view of the changes here.. so I am curious what specifically the stations you are watching are set up to observe and what within their signals you are looking for specifically? Anything you could add will be greatly appreciated. Thx |
23214
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Ground Tilt Data - Mar. 4, 2024
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GROUND TILT DATA - Posted by EQF on March 4, 2024 Thanks for the questions and comments. The following is my understanding of what is taking place with those Europe - Asia ground tilt sensors. The researchers running them go into old coal mines etc. and install sensors that have large, heavy pendulums. The pendulums point towards the center of the Earth. If the walls of the coal mine shift north and south or east and west, the pendulums will still point towards the center of the Earth. But the pendulums and the lines supporting them will now be at an angle to the ground. Photo array detectors fastened to the coal mine walls are then used to tell if the pendulums have moved relative to the coal mine walls. Those ground tilt data are then sent via the Internet to that group's research headquarters and made available on that group's Web site. The theory is that when a powerful earthquake is approaching, it causes the entire coal mine to tilt a bit relative to a line pointing to the center of the Earth. If the ground tilt data from a given sensor are accurately evaluated then some information can be obtained regarding where the active fault zone is relative to the sensor. Additional information can be obtained regarding the magnitude of the approaching earthquake based on how large the tilt angle is. Those Europe - Asia area ground tilt data are often in excellent agreement with my own electromagnetic signal (EM Signal) data that are being collected at a single location in the U.S. Years ago, those ground tilt data and my own EM Signal data were in agreement regarding the approach of a powerful Hawaii earthquake. So, some of the ground tilt data are apparently sensitive to approaching earthquakes occurring a great distance from the earthquake fault zone. Unfortunately, some of the most important ground tilt data from those sensors are not presently available because the sensors are located in war zone areas. They cannot be safely serviced. And access to the Internet is apparently not possible. If you want to see more details regarding the ground tilt data, then you can visit my Earthquake Forecasting Web site. Type the following line into any major search engine: earthquake research index.html Data.html My Web site should be at or near the top of the returned list. Then after the .com in my Web site address type in: /pk/PK-L.html The Web page displayed was stored there on 2012. Time really travels fast! That Web page is likely badly in need of an update. But, it does contain a fair amount of information regarding those ground tilt sensors and data. Quite a few years ago that ground tilt data group and I organized an effort to have one of their sensor systems installed at what is apparently an ideal location here in the United States. Their equipment was ready to go. They had an installation date selected. I was going to join them at the location. Unfortunately, at the last minute their funding for the project got cancelled. They never told me why their funding was cancelled. I have some strong suspicions regarding who was responsible for the interference. Personnel working for one particular reckless and irresponsible government might have been involved. Shan who posts notes here now and then has also developed what I believe is a ground tilt sensor system that involves the movement of the building in which he lives. He can detect the movement by watching the shadow that some object projects on the wall of a room in his residence. Unfortunately, even after years of trying, I have never been able to get him to explain exactly how he monitors the shadow images and does his calculations. If his method actually works it could be invaluable to people around the world who are threatened by earthquakes. These are personal opinions. Regards to all, EQF |
23215
From: ao, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Ground Tilt Data - Mar. 4, 2024
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Hey, thanks for the explanation. Those systems sound interesting. Although without understanding the other forces at play it's hard to imagine how to extract the data you're looking for from them. Things like temperature and pressure, the diurnal and of course any force within the earth itself besides the one you’re focused on, would have to be extracted in order to see what you are looking for. Wouldn’t they? Do you have any other information about the environment each 'tilt meter’ is in, or is there just an assumed baseline? Maybe, to help me understand, you could suggest how I would see the same in the tilt data I am watching. Do you ever look at the tilt associated with the volcanoes in Hawaii? Like the different tilt plots seen here.. https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/kilauea/science/monitoring-data-kilauea Maybe it’s too cluttered with the forces that drive the volcano? Anyways, just a thought? |
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23216
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Ground Tilt Data - Mar. 7, 2024
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Posted by EQF on March 7, 2024 Hi ao, It can take me a few days to a week to visit this forum and respond to comments. Those systems sound interesting. Although without understanding the other forces at play it's hard to imagine how to extract the data you're looking for from them. As far as I am aware, the ground tilt data simply indicate that the underground area where they are running is just being tilted by some force. Approaching earthquakes and volcano eruptions could do that. And of course, movement of the ground each day associated with tidal forces would cause them to shift. But, that tide related movement would probably be averaged away into the background. Do you have any other information about the environment each 'tilt meter’ is in, or is there just an assumed baseline? I don't really know too much about them except that they are stationary somewhere deep in the ground. That might make them better able to respond to tectonic plate movement etc. compared with GPS systems that are more likely to respond to Earth surface effects. Maybe, to help me understand, you could suggest how I would see the same in the tilt data I am watching. The two types of data are somewhat related. But as I stated, the ground tilt sensors are likely less effected by Earth surface effects. Do you ever look at the tilt associated with the volcanoes in Hawaii? Like the different tilt plots seen here. I only have time to watch a few earthquake sites and don't check on highly localized sensors such as the GPS sensors in Hawaii. Maybe it’s too cluttered with the forces that drive the volcano? Anyways, just a thought? That would be my expectation as well. As you are interested in Hawaii seismic data I went back and created a chart, shown below, using my electromagnetic signal (EM Signal) data from before that 2018 Hawaii earthquake. The similar line shapes with the earthquake indicate to me that the approaching earthquake was generating quite a few EM Signals. So, it could have been predicted instead of being a complete surprise. But, I don't have time to try to predict everyone's earthquakes. It is my recommendation that every country and individual states like Hawaii contact that ground tilt data group and see if they would be willing to install one or more of their sensors at important locations. They appear to be relatively easy and inexpensive to build and install and only need electric and Internet connections once they are running. They don't appear to need any special maintenance and could provide ground tilt data that would be valuable in addition to the GPS systems that governments are presently using. These are personal opinions. Regards to all, EQF Below are the 2018 Hawaii earthquake data.
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23211
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: WEB Address and a Ground Tilt Data Comment - Mar. 2, 2024
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Make that: Hi ao, not Hi an small text reading limitation problem |
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23217
From: ao, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: WEB Address and a Ground Tilt Data Comment - Mar. 2, 2024
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Yeah, I'm slow at getting back to you too. But no matter, thanks for the exchange. Really, take your time.. I'm still trying to wrap myself around your approach. As part of monitoring the volcanic activity in Hawaii deformation has really come into its own. My involvement in deformation studies started before we had electronic, digitally based, sensors. We would occupy ‘level lines’ repeatedly with a level and a rod, looking for changes in magma volumes on Kilauea’s East Rift Zone. In other words we worked our asses off for very little data. And that was before we started employing borehole tilt meters in the early '90s. Although we had a water based tilt meter before that. But the water array had to be manually read, on site, so the data points were only when the station was occupied. Whereas the bore hole array is recorded digitally in real time 24/7. And, of course, they are a phenomenal addition to the long running seismic array we have here. And, as you pointed out, we also have an array of permanent GPS stations, and everything is augmented with short term campaigns deploying other sensors.. gravity meters etc. You can access a lot of our instruments on the interactive map at the link above. From there tap/click on any one of the icons on the map and it will bring up data from that station. And, as you see there, we have seismic, GPS, tilt, gas, and visuals and all the other instrumentation covering a large area of the island. Note that you can turn each set of icons on and off from the Instruments menu to the right. Many times I’ve suggested the page should open with only the earthquakes and let the user select the data sets they want to explore, but hey the powers that be think we should be overwhelmed with all that right from the get go. But, to a specific point, what I am hoping to do is to have you point out what to look for in a tilt signal that would indicates a precursor to an earthquake. To that end here are three plots all from the same data stream; one that spans two days, one for one week, and a third that spans a month. I put them all here because I don't know what resolution you’re most comfortable working with, at what resolution the signals you’re looking for would be most apparent? And, btw, you can even see an earthquake, that spike (vertical line just after midnight on 03/13) which was recorded on the tilt record.. but what before that would I see that indicates it's about to happen? I could couple this with any number of seismic stations, and show you that data in any resolution you’d like.. just let me know. Anyways.. thanks.. I look forward to your reply.. Two Days..  One Week..  One Month.. 
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23222
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Some Information Requested - Mar. 16, 2024
URL: http://www.earthboppin.net/talkshop/science/messages/7451.html
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Posted by EQF on March 16, 2024 This is a link to a "Science" forum post. It would be my expectation that most people visit only one of the Boppin forum Web pages on a regular basis. http://www.earthboppin.net/talkshop/science/messages/7451.html |
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23223
From: ao, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Some Information Requested - Mar. 16, 2024
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"It would be my expectation that most people visit only one of the Boppin forum Web pages on a regular basis" Wow, I had no idea. As Van said, thanks for the information. |
23224
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Some Information Requested - Mar. 16, 2024
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Posted by EQF on March 18, 2024 This is some added clarification. I don't know what the patterns are for people visiting the Boppin forum. Mr. Bopp would have that information. It would be my expectation that most people who visit the forum just visit the particular Web page that is the interesting to them. So, it might be the Rock and Roll page or the Science page etc. I am guessing that they don't hop around from one to another that often, though as I said, I am not an authority on that. This is why once and a while, I will post a reference note to the Rock and Roll page recommending that people go to the Science page to see one of my longer posts. Until recently, I myself never visited any other page than the Rock and Roll page. Lately I have been visiting the Science page at least a few times a week. Regards to all, EQF |
23225
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Volcano Eruption Forecasting - Mar. 18, 2024
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Posted by EQF on March 18, 2024 Hi again ao, Significant improvements could probably be made regarding forecasting volcano eruption times. For one example, I am not aware of anyone or any government that monitors certain types of electromagnetic energy field changes that can be associated with the approach of a volcano eruption. It might also be possible to avoid at least some catastrophic volcano eruptions by reducing the strain caused by the magma buildup. Obviously, reducing that strain would take some work. More on that in another post. SILICA AND VOLCANO ERUPTIONS A recent report that I read stated that perhaps the most important factor involved with a volcano blowing its top and an eruption that just creates rivers of lava involves the silica content of the molten rock. I believe that silica means silicon dioxide, a very common chemical or molecule or crystal in rocks. Explosive volcano eruptions appear to be associated with a high silica content. I don't know if you had ever heard that. I wonder what the silica content is for Hawaii area volcanoes. Have volcanologists ever developed a widely accepted theory for why Hawaii volcanoes keep moving in one direction? I know that they refer to them as being over a "Hot Spot." What tectonic plate activity etc. causes the Hot Spots to form? Regards to all, EQF |
23227
From: ao, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Volcano Eruption Forecasting - Mar. 18, 2024
URL: http://earthboppin.net/talkshop/rollem/messages/23217.html
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Aloha EQF Yes, Earth’s volcanic rocks have variable compositions and silicon is among the most dominate elements of them all, although from one source or another there’s a lot of variabilities. Common magmas range from rhyolite, typically containing 70-77 wt% silica (SiO2, silicon oxide), to basalt, typified by 45-55 wt% silica. And as you can see by the varying land forms they create the amount in each plays a roll in magma/lava's behavior. On Earth we find three dominant types of volcanic structures and each has it’s own unique petrological signature (mineral composition). Hot Spot volcanoes and Oceanic Spreading Zone volcanism which are both sourced from convection currents in the Earth’s mantle, and Convergent Plate Boundary volcanism which create volcanoes from the remelted portion of the crust that is subducted. To tell the differences is pretty easy. Volcanoes built with mantle sourced melt are less volatile, and they form lower profiles than the volcanoes that form next to subduction zones. The difference in how they erupt is remarkable as well. Basalt is fluid, something like toothpaste whereas the lavas formed by the subduction process are much denser, and as such the edifices they build are steeper, and have a smaller footprint on the landscape. One of my books, Fire on the Mountain, delved into these differences and showed the many volcanoes around the world using the Hawaiian shield volcanoes as a basis for their comparison. That book, first published in 1993, is long out of print, but can be found online.. As to predictive modeling, I suspect, as I've stated before, the Volcanic Hazards Program, which is the main organization within the Interior Department that is tasked with such things, and who runs the network of volcano observatories within the USA, are really on it. Though I’d love to hear more about your thoughts on the matter. I’d also like to follow up on how you would identify the signals you’re watching in our data streams, as I have pointed to them in my earlier post.. at the link above. Would you like me to post a tilt plot and a seismic drum/trace plot along side of it? I know we have all sorts of forces here, magma movement, the daily diurnal cycle, and as such they may not be as ‘clean’ as those you’re watching from less dynamic, more stable areas. But still I am trying to understand what I should I be looking for in the tilt plot that is a precursor to an earthquake? Any help you can offer would be greatly appreciated. |
23228
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: This will take a while - Mar. 24, 2024
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Posted by EQF on March 24, 2024 It will take me a while to digest all of that information and post some comments. There are several reasons for that. I am sure that you will agree with reason # 3. 1. I am not a geologist or volcanologist. 2. The subject matter will require me to think. Generally, I do that only as a last resort. 3. There are other projects that I am working on. I work on projects that are intended to save lives, improve our health, and strengthen world economies. I am extremely good at this and have been so successful with these efforts that literally, no one in the civilized world anywhere on the planet can lift a pencil without relying on my past successful projects. They are everywhere. Out of the several dozen that I am presently working on including Earthquake Forecasting, my TOP 6 present projects involve keeping us all from becoming specks of radioactive dust floating around in the atmosphere. I am sure that you know how we could all become specks of radioactive dust. One past project along those lines from many years ago was put into immediate use by world governments. It was totally successful. Most or all of the present 6 I am working on will also likely be put into immediate use. Unfortunately, it takes a lot of time to prepare reports such as those and send them to government officials. The instructions have to be EXACT. You also need to tell them WHAT NOT TO DO! BOOK TRANSLATION Though I am not a geologist, working with a group of geologists in Europe, years ago I translated their book (2012) titled: "Tilts, Global Tectonics And Earthquake Forecasting" from a very crude form of English to moderately readable English text. That took me almost a year to do. That might have been partly because I rarely got a grade above C in English in high or elementary school. The main reason was the fact that many of their sentences were 500 words long. So, not being a geologist I had to first determine what they were actually saying, and then break each sentence into multiple parts such as only 200 words long (humor intended) The book contained one amazing observation they made regarding "layers" of heat and cold moving slowly down into the earth. It contained a theory for how continents form, also involving heating and cooling of the crust. And it contained a theory for earthquakes occurring in areas not on the edges of tectonic plates. According to them, some occur because the top layer of the Earth that floats on lower layers can have inverse mountains. And those mountains can drag like an anchor on the upper layer and introduce strain in the center of the tectonic plate. It was only recently that I saw anyone else discuss that last theory though it has actually probably been around for a while. These are personal opinions. Regards to all, EQF |
23229
From: ao, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: This will take a while - Mar. 24, 2024
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I work on projects that are intended to save lives, improve our health, and strengthen world economies. I am extremely good at this and have been so successful with these efforts that literally, no one in the civilized world anywhere on the planet can lift a pencil without relying on my past successful projects. They are everywhere. Wow, I had no idea. You really should share more. I am sure we'd all love to express our appreciation, if only we know your contributions that have been so impactful to us all. I, for one, would be elated. As to my simple minded meanderings, please don't worry about answering unless you're truly inspired. After all, there's nothing to them that can't wait, especially when compared to saving the world! |
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23230
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: This will take a while - Mar. 25, 2024
URL: http://www.earthboppin.net/talkshop/science/messages/7429.html
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Posted by EQF on March 25, 2024 Hi ao and all, What I stated is actually true. If you or your friends or family members go into the hospital you will likely be tested and treated with technology that I helped get developed, many years ago. Two critically important medical projects that I am presently working on involve: !. Getting an extremely fast preliminary diagnosis when you encounter some type of serious medical problem such as a stroke or a heart attack. Present smart phones and watches, wrist monitors etc. are not yet advanced enough to do this. 2. Several times a week, getting a FREE, convenient, slower, noninvasive, and highly detailed medical diagnosis for your general health. It would spot lung problems, injured joints, some bone problems, clogged blood vessels, and even some cancer growths. If you instructed those technologies to automatically do that, both would notify your doctor that you were having a problem and if necessary in the case of a stroke or heart attack, call your hospital and have them send an ambulance to pick you up. Both of those advanced technologies could have been developed years and even decades ago. But, someone has to be the first to tell people that the technologies need to be and CAN be developed. I know how to get them developed. Relatively few other inventors would know how to do that or even have an interest in doing that. These are other posts on this Boppin forum that discuss a few of the other projects that I am working on directly or indirectly. http://www.earthboppin.net/talkshop/science/messages/7429.html http://www.earthboppin.net/talkshop/science/messages/7445.html Once again, the TOP six projects on my projects list involve keeping us all from becoming specks of radioactive dust floating in the atmosphere. Two projects that I have not yet been successful with involve: A. Getting world governments and NGOs to develop the ability to forecast earthquakes. If I can forecast at least some earthquakes and have done that repeatedly in the past, then governments should be able to do that. My forecasting methodology and my main forecasting computer program were discussed in detail by one of my research colleagues years ago at a major disaster management conference in Beijing, China. B. Getting inexpensive, versatile, human shaped robots developed that could go into damaged nuclear energy power plants and other dangerous locations such as burning buildings and run the computers when there were unsafe levels of radiation or fire. The robots would help people in radioactive areas or burning buildings get into special protective types of boxes and drag them and the boxes safely them out of the building. Robots using semiconductor circuits for internal control would stop working because of the radiation damage or intense heat in a damaged nuclear reactor area. But there are other technologies that could be used instead such as photo multiplier tubes that can be very highly resistant to radiation. PMTs have been around since the 1930s. It is truly amazing how little interest governments etc. have in developing those robots that could be saving many lives. I know exactly how to develop them. One group apparently did make something of an effort to do that after I told government officials for the Nth time that this effort was needed. But the robots they developed relied on semiconductors and would not work in a nuclear power plant or burning buildings. These are personal opinions. Regards to all, EQF |
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23221
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: WEB Address and a Ground Tilt Data Comment - Mar. 2, 2024
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Posted by EQF on March 16, 2024 Hi ao, I saw your posting. It will take me a little longer to respond. There are a few questions that I have for the data you are studying etc. That ground tilt method that I post charts for is not my own method. I am simply making copies of their data available. Otherwise, no one would ever see them as their charts are being constantly updated and cannot be easily downloaded. As far as I am aware, the original researchers and I are the only ones who have copies of those data. And it can be difficult to contact those researchers. My own forecast data going back to the start of 2001 are stored in one form or another on my Earthquake Forecasting Web site. Regards to all, EQF |
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