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23166
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Disturbing Earthquake Pattern - Jan. 20, 2024
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Posted by EQF on January 20, 2024 This is actually a part of my latest EARTHQUAKE WARNING. However, that warning is moving down on this forum and this latest information is somewhat alarming. The chart below displays a copy of my latest YEAR CHART. This ia year's worth of averaged EM Signals. For people who are actually interested in earthquake forecasting, this ia some of the most advanced forecasting work being done anywhere on the planet. What you can see is a pattern of line peaks going back a year in time. At the end of January, 2023 they start to appear around 170 E on the chart. Then they gradually move towards the east until they finally reach 180 E or W. i have seen this type of pattern in the past. It can last for a year or more. Then it ends in a powerful earthquake, probably a relatively shallow one. I am going to have to review my older files to see what happened when this pattern was last detected. I don't remember where the earthquake was. I also don't know where this present possible earthquake is likely to occur. Finally, there are really no organized government agencies or scientific groups that I am aware of that can make use of this information. Shan appears to me to be the only earthquake researcher with a degree in science who is posting notes here. Hopefully, that situation will eventually change. Additionally, earthquakes don't occur where I live and work. This is mostly a scientific humanitarian effort for me. These are personal opinions. Regards to all, EQF
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Responses:
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23177
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Chart C Data Evaluation - Jan. 23, 2024
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CHART C DATA EVALUATION - Posted by EQF on January 23, 2024 The Earthquake Forecasting Data on my Earthquake Forecasting Web site are generally intended for use by disaster managers working for different governments, and earthquake researchers around the world. Those people should read this entire report. Interested parties have my permission to make a copy of this posting and send it to any government officials that they wish or to other earthquake researchers. As this posting explains, my earthquake precursor data are sufficiently complex that only government personnel in various countries or other earthquake researchers would have the time needed to evaluate the data. I don’t even have time myself to do much with them except perform some relatively simple tests. The data would be a fairly easy for government officials to evaluate because as this posting will explain, they only need to watch for earthquakes that might be about to occur in their own countries. So, the evaluations would be fast. In contrast, people around the world who want to use the data to determine where an expected earthquake might be about to occur would probably have to run detailed analyses looking at past significant earthquakes around the world going back to the start of 1973. That is as far back as my data charts go. To see my Earthquake Forecasting Web site go to any major search engine and type in: earthquake research Data.html index.html My Web site should be at or near the top of the list that is displayed. On my index.html Web page there is a reference to one of my Web pages named: Earthquake Forecasting Procedures Those are highly detailed discussions explain how government officials or anyone else interested can evaluate my earthquake precursor data. It would take so long to learn how to do that that probably only government officials and expert earthquake researchers would have the time. Also on my index.html Web page there is a Web page named: CHART VIEWERS The downloadable Chart Viewers are VERY simple .HTML Web pages that make it easy to evaluate my earthquake precursor data. Type # 1 - Some of the Chart Viewers contain code that will cause the .html file to automatically download Earthquake Forecasting .png charts from my Web site when the .html Web page stored on a person’s computer is activated. Type # 2 - Other Chart Viewers contain code that make it possible to evaluate my earthquake precursor data .png picture charts that a government official or earthquake researcher or anyone interested has already stored on his or her personal computer. I myself constantly use the Type 2 charts. Both Type 1 and Type 2 .html Web pages contain 2 or more windows. A different type of .png picture file can be displayed in each of the windows making it easy to compare their data. For my own use, I also have a Perl language code program that can instantly create new Chart Viewer .html Web pages with upper and lower windows of any size desired. Roger who used to post notes here was supposed to create a TrueBasic .exe program that would do that. But he retired before he could finish the project. So I eventually wrote the program myself using much slower, but relatively simple Perl language code. It gets the job done. Below are two examples of how to use the Chart Viewers plus my Earthquake Forecasting .png charts to determine if a significant earthquake might be about to occur where you live and work. It can easily be seen that these procedures would take much too much time for most earthquake researchers to perform. It would also be difficult for most earthquake researchers around the world to make the most effective use of my earthquake precursor data because they are largely intended for people such as government officials who can actually check to see if there are any other earthquake precursors being observed in a suspect area. If none are being observed then it most likely means that an expected earthquake will occur somewhere else. The first chart below is what government officials in New Zealand would see if they were using my Chart Viewers and .png charts. The top window is displaying part of my latest Chart C .png chart. The lower window is displaying a .png SIGNIFICANT EARTHQUAKES sorted by longitude chart that contains data for more than 900 significant earthquakes that have occurred from the present going back to the start of 1973. Quite a few earthquakes are also displayed just for research purposes. Both windows on the .html version of the Chart Viewer can be easily scrolled up and down.
There is a vertical orange yellow line on the above Chart C .png chart at 180 E or W. That is the longitude of the Chart C line peaks. So, government officials in New Zealand would want to make use of those data because their country is just to the west of 180 E and because it has occasional powerful earthquakes. As the Chart Viewer shows in the lower window, there were multiple significant New Zealand earthquakes that had line shapes that have line peaks around 180 E that matched the line shapes displayed on Chart C. Government officials would be checking to see if there were any earthquake precursors that were presently being observed where those past significant earthquakes occurred. That would be quite easy because the earthquake precursors would be strong and obvious. They could be things such as fresh, large cracks in building foundations, glowing lights on the horizon, AM radio signal static, dramatic change is well water levels, strong radon gas levels, people complaining about sudden strong headaches or other aches and pains, and land animals or fish in the area exhibiting highly unusual behavior. If there weren’t any obvious earthquake precursors such as those then it is highly likely that the expected earthquake would occur in some other part of the world. The Chart Viewer chart below would be important for government officials in Turkey. There were a number of absolutely devastating earthquake that occurred in Turkey around February 6, 2023. The one year anniversary of such an earthquake is approaching, government officials and earthquake researchers who live and work in the country where the earthquakes occurred would want to be watching for signs of an approaching possible aftershock.
The chart in the lower window displays data for more than 900 SIGNIFICANT EARTHQUAKES going back the start of 1973. The earthquakes on THAT chart are sorted by DATE rather than longitude. The most recent earthquakes are closest to the top of the chart. It can be clearly seen that the 180 E line peaks on the Chart C part of the Chart Viewer chart ARE NOT good matches for the line peaks for those year 2023 devastating Turkey earthquakes. So, whereas my earthquake precursor data suggest that it would a good idea to check the New Zealand fault zone areas for earthquake precursors, with this type of analysis my data ARE NOT strongly suggesting that a major Turkey area aftershock is approaching. That in NO WAY means that there won’t be a Turkey area aftershock in early February of 2024. It simply shows that if one is on the way, it IS NOT YET clearly appearing in my earthquake precursor data. That should be helpful earthquake precursor information for government officials etc. living in Turkey. If they were using my Chart Viewers they could determine that for themselves in literally a matter of minutes! On the other hand, If the bottom window on my Chart Viewers were used to compare the Chart C .png chart with all significant earthquakes sorted by longitude, that occurred since 1973 in the Turkey area, some matches would be seen. So, just to be on the cautious side, at the present time, Turkey government officials they would want to ask around to determine if there were any obvious earthquake precursors being detected in those areas. Those same procedures could and should be used by government officials around the world living in countries that have a history of past significant earthquakes. Again, if no obvious earthquake precursors are being observed, an expected earthquake is probably going to occur somewhere else. The charts below show how easy it would be for some organization such as the United Nations or the government of the State of California to collect and display earthquake precursor data.
These are personal opinions. Regards to all, EQF |
Responses:
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23178
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Chart C Data Evaluation - Jan. 23, 2024
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Posted by EQF on January 23, 2024 The top two picture files on the above post are unfortunately too large for the post. They can make the text too small and difficult to read. I am going to try to adjust those chart sizes in the future so that they are a better match. For now, people can use the "Zoom Text Only" feature that comes with some Internet browsers such as Firefox. The text will get larger without increasing the size of the picture files. As stated in other posts, I usually don't visit this forum every day. So, I might not respond to any comments for a while. Regards to all, EQF |
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23179
From: mr bopp, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Chart C Data Evaluation - Jan. 23, 2024
| you can adjust the image size by putting width="1000" or whatever in the image tag... |
Responses:
[23182] [23183] [23186] [23195] [23190] [23192] [23191]
23182
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Thanks - Jan. 26, 2024
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Posted by EQF on January 26, 2024 Hi Mr. Bopp, Thanks. I do know how to do that. I haven't yet tried it with those pictures but plan to give it a try. Sometimes when you alter the shape of a picture file you might lose some detail etc. For other people who work with HTML text I will add when the width is adjusted like that, the height probably also needs to be adjusted using the right height/width ratio. Otherwise there can be some picture file shape distortion. My Perl language computer programs automatically adjust picture files to have a width of 1000 when they are created. That is also done with those ground tilt files from the Europe - Asia area when my program transforms them into .png files. Those very large picture files in my earlier post were screen captures. That was the first time I posted them here. I didn't have time to try to adjust their width and height but will do that with the next group. This earthquake that I have been expecting looks like it is still probably on the way. Some signals are still being detected. My latest Time Window for it still runs until the first few days in February. No really strong EM Signals have been detected the past few days. That is at least some good news. These are personal opinions. Regards, EQF |
23183
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Update - Feb. 1, 2024
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Posted by EQF on February 1, 2024 I am planning to post an update regarding this expected earthquake, probably some time in the next few days. It appears that there is still some seismic activity on the way. TIME WINDOW - Present time until around February 12, 2024 No high intensity EM Signals have been detected lately. However, large numbers of low intensity signals have been detected during the past 24 hours. That is unusual. The last time I can remember that happening was during the year before that major earthquake in Japan back in March of 2011. In that case the low intensity signals continued on an almost daily basis for a good part of a year before the earthquake finally occurred. That is the only time going back to the start of 1990 that I can remember that happening. TIME WINDOWS - With some earthquakes, these Time Window delays can last for months before the earthquake finally occurs. These are personal opinions. Regards to all EQF |
23186
From: Leonardo, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Update - Feb. 1, 2024
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The 50 year Mag. 7.3+ interarrival Time is 54.5 days. For M. 7.4+ it is 66.8 days. A "couple of months" is 60-62 days generally. Therefore any Mag. 7.3+ event is a statistical certainty and claiming it as a "hit" would just be a statement of background seismicity. Also you have not stated a 1) magnitude threshold / range 2) (or a optional location zone) to be a forecast which can be evaluated for predictive power. So this vague "forecast" is of no value since there's no way to discern if background historical odds are manifesting or not when a Hit is claimed on any event at all. It raises the question of "What is your True purpose ?" (Since you allege to know "statistics" as a doubled degreed person). (The question is rhetorical and no reply is needed.) Best Regards to All |
23195
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Additional Comments - Feb. 12, 2024
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Posted by EQF on February 12, 2024 Hi again, The following is once again what I have been trying to say here: With some humor intended, my Earthquake Forecasting program represents probably at least a million U.S. dollars worth of my research time by an experienced scientists going almost back to the age of the dinosaurs. Interpreting the earthquake warnings and advisories that I post here is a highly complex process. I myself don't have the time needed to fully decipher all of the earthquake forecasting data that my computer programs are generating. At my Web site there are downloadable specialty HTML Web pages that researchers can use to more easily interpret my forecast data. To a large extent this information is intended for government scientists who DO have the time needed to evaluate a wide variety of earthquake precursor information and then draw up and go ahead with plans to use those data. Two dramatically different types of earthquake precursor data are presently available through my Data.html Web page. These are: 1. My own electromagnetic energy signal data 2. Some ground tilt data generated by one of my research colleagues in the Europe - Asia area. I would like his group to send me more information regarding HOW to evaluate their ground tilt data. But, so far I haven't been able to get his team to generate that type of information. Sooner or later I should have some success with that. I need that information for my own forecasting program. I know that his group's data are valuable. I simply don't know exactly how to evaluate them. Exactly where are each of their charts pointing etc.? These are personal opinions. Regards to all, EQF |
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23190
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Update - Feb. 1, 2024
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Posted by EQF on February 10, 2024 With some humor intended, the following are some answers to your questions. 1. Your Question: What Is Your True Purpose? 1. My Answer: You are going to have to determine that on your own. I have TWO degrees in the physical sciences and ZERO degrees in philosophy. Who actually knows what his or her true purpose is? 2. Your Question: How can your predictions be evaluated? 2. My Answer: As I have said in the past, “Do your homework.” There are tons of information at my Earthquake Forecasting Web site answering those types of questions. I recommend that you start with an older report titled: “Earthquake Forecasting Breakthroughs.” It compares my own Earthquake Forecasting data with data generated by other earthquake forecasting methods including an interesting method that involves watching for Jet Stream Anomalies. It is fairly lengthy and is unfortunately badly in need of an update. 3. MY QUESTION FOR YOU I have several degrees in the physical sciences from highly regarded colleges or universities. Basically, those degrees say that in a certain sense, I (and Mr. Bopp, of course) have the legal right to make the rules regarding what IS important on this planet and what IS NOT, what is GOOD science and what would have to be called JUNK science. So, how many degrees in science do you have? My guess would be ZERO degrees. The reason for my assuming that this is the case is because a person with a degree in science would know better than to constantly ask the types of questions you are asking. Instead, he or she would take the time to visit my Earthquake Forecasting Web site and read what the answers are instead of asking the same questions over and over. However, I do also strongly feel that if people have questions regarding important matters such as earthquake forecasting, they should ask them, but just not over and over again without first doing some reading to learn what the answers might be. Also as I said, this is partly intended to be an amusing response. Perhaps you do actually have a degree in science. If so, or if not, just Do Some Reading Surprise! Surprise! It might actually make you happy if you can stand spending several days reading all of that technical information. These are personal opinions. Regards to all, EQF |
23192
From: Skywise, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Update - Feb. 1, 2024
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"Basically, those degrees say that in a certain sense, I (and Mr. Bopp, of course) have the legal right to make the rules regarding what IS important on this planet and what IS NOT, what is GOOD science and what would have to be called JUNK science." If a degree is conferring legal rights, then that will codified in a law. Please cite the law in which this legal right is codified. Brian |
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23191
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Interesting PBS Report - Words To The Wise - Feb. 10, 2024
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eX_aIgTHs1c |
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23176
From: Skywise, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Disturbing Earthquake Pattern - Jan. 20, 2024
URL: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000lsze/
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So we have an M7 quake on the China-Kyrgyzstan border. It's longitude is listed as 78.649°E. But I don't see any squiggles on your graph near that longitude for at least two months. Doesn't look like this quake is the one you're expecting. Brian |
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