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23152 |
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Date: January 18, 2024 at 17:42:17
From: Leonardo, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Mag. 6.8+ 19-24 Jan 24 01:34 UTC timing forecast |
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Forecast B: M6.8+ 19-24 Jan 24 01:34 UTC
Using a (secondary) indicator which was only
partially looked at (call it method B) I'm forecasting
a Mag. 6.8+ to happen in the 5 day time period
starting:
19 Jan. 2024 at 01:34 UTC
until 24 Jan. 2024.
This is an ongoing experiment and magnitudes are
determined by any tsunami.gov preliminary magnitude
report of this forcaster's choice.
The typical 8 day window has been reduced to 5 days.
(Odds not checked as yet....)
Posted: 19 jan. 2024 01:34 AM UTC (01:41 on EB)
(Those who misread and pontificate thereafter
should create a new message instead of
replying here.)
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Responses:
[23171] [23175] [23168] [23173] [23167] [23172] [23174] |
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23171 |
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Date: January 22, 2024 at 15:27:42
From: Leonardo, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Hit: Mag. 7.0 22 Jan 24 18:09 UTC timing forecast |
URL: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes |
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A hit ~(mid-window):
Mag. 7.0
- 129 km WNW of Aykol, China
Time
2024-01-22 18:09:04 (UTC)
Location
41.269°N 78.649°E
Depth
13.0 km
(Tsunami.gov hasn't updated as yet -
@ 22 Jan 24 - 23:28 UTC)
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Responses:
[23175] |
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23175 |
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Date: January 22, 2024 at 20:13:47
From: Skywise, [DNS_Address]
Subject: not so fast... |
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You stated you use tsunami.gov as your magnitude source.
Can't claim a hit until it shows up there.
But it likely won't.
Tsunami.gov only lists quakes which may be capable of
generating a tsunami.
There are large, significant, damaging quakes that are
not listed simply because they aren't capable of causing
a tsunami.
You really need to use USGS as your reference. I'd agree
to your hit if you were. But by your own criteria, it's
a miss.
Brian
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Responses:
None |
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23168 |
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Date: January 20, 2024 at 20:38:45
From: Skywise, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Mag. 6.8+ 19-24 Jan 24 01:34 UTC timing forecast |
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"This is an ongoing experiment and magnitudes are
determined by any tsunami.gov preliminary magnitude
report of this forcaster's choice."
So, if tsunami.gov reports a magnitude 6.7 quake that
USGS later upgrades to 6.9, then by this rule that's
still a miss, right?
Brian
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Responses:
[23173] |
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23173 |
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Date: January 22, 2024 at 15:34:42
From: Leonardo, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Mag. 6.8+ 19-24 Jan 24 01:34 UTC timing forecast |
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Had you been paying attencion long-term
you would know that
"Hell would
freeze over 1st
before that would happen."
(w/ 99.99999 % probability)
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Responses:
None |
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23167 |
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Date: January 20, 2024 at 15:17:02
From: blindhog 6th sense, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Who is Allowed to Respond Then?(NT) |
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Responses:
[23172] [23174] |
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23172 |
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Date: January 22, 2024 at 15:29:31
From: Leonardo, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Lol - just you b'hog....Re: Who is Allowed to Respond Then?(NT) |
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Responses:
[23174] |
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23174 |
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Date: January 22, 2024 at 15:40:30
From: blindhog 6th sense, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Good. So In Layman's Terms What on Earth Were You Saying in Your Post(NT) |
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Responses:
None |
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