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23002 |
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Date: September 09, 2023 at 09:22:12
From: Skywise, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Morocco |
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It does not appear anyone predicted the devastating earthquake in Marrakesh.
It would be a good idea for predictors and forecasters to evaluate their methods
and data to see why they missed this.
Morocco does not get quakes like this, so the odds of a successful prediction
would have been extremely low. However, that means a successful prediction would
have been very much worth noting.
Brian
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Responses:
[23009] [23010] |
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23009 |
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Date: September 14, 2023 at 20:26:16
From: mimici/socal, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Morocco |
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I talked to Jack about this. He said that the East is a
blind spot for him. Because of his limited equipment and
location, his forecasts cover the areas of CA (where he
is) the ring of fire. He did receive a ton of initial
signals which could have been for Morocco but he has no
way of knowing. A large part of his forecasts rely on
documentation of previous quakes and there hasn't been a
large quake in that area for a very long time.
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Responses:
[23010] |
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23010 |
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Date: September 14, 2023 at 22:32:35
From: Skywise, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Morocco |
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Thank you. I understand Jack pretty much sticks to California only. So I
wouldn't include him in my view of "failed the predict" Morocco.
It is obvious that I am skeptical of predictors in general, but want to
make clear than I am not 100% skeptical of prediction itself. Although I
have reasons to believe that prediction may be impossible, I recognize
that science does not know everything and therefore I leave the door open a
bit to the possibility, however slim.
But predictors simply fail the 'smell test', for many reasons. Many,
the basis of their predictions is demonstrably and provably false. Others
fail to provide necessary information to make judgement possible (its a
secret). A few get very testy when you try to critique them. And of all I
have seen so far, none have a track record to get excited about. Anyone can
get a hit by chance. Even I have. But no one has passed any statistical
test that would pass muster. On this last part, my test prediction program
I ran years ago did not pass statistically and I had literally thousands of
hits. The math doesn't lie. (Some will retort that math is lie, so that
means they are successful predictors. Oh!!! The irony!!)
Have a great day.
Brian
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Responses:
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