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22840 |
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Date: March 15, 2023 at 08:34:33
From: Mikhail, [DNS_Address]
Subject: NorCal M6.0 +/- 0.2 on 4/9 +/- 3d PDT |
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PREDICTED TIME: Sunday, Apr. 9,
2023, Noon Pacific Daylight Time, plus or
minus 72 hours (mainshock only, aftershocks are
irrelevant to this prediction).
PREDICTED MAGNITUDE: 5.8 - 6.2
(moment magnitude, USGS).
PREDICTED LOCATION: Within
California west of I-5 and
north of 36 degrees N. (including offshore
to edge of continent).
PROBABILITY of hitting all parameters by random
coincidence: ~0.33% (chance of success: 1 in ~300)
based on prior 100-year EQ history (USGS)
NO CONFIDENCE LEVEL PROVIDED -- INSUFFICIENT TRACK
RECORD.
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Responses:
[22871] |
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22871 |
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Date: April 26, 2023 at 12:27:31
From: Mikhail, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: NorCal M6.0 +/- 0.2 on 4/9 +/- 3d PDT - RESULTS |
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RESULTS:
M 6.0; 238 km SW of Port McNeill, Canada; 49.207°N
129.620°W; 2023-04-13 08:54:53 (UTC-07:00)
Magnitude (6.0) = HIT (exactly)
Time (April 13, 2023, 8:54:53 AM PDT) = 20 h 54 m
after close of 6-day window
Location (49.207°N 129.620°W) = on ocean floor
(Solvanco fracture zone); 850 km (530 mi) NW of
predicted area
PREDICTION FAILED.
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Responses:
None |
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