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22859 |
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Date: March 29, 2023 at 19:15:16
From: Leonardo, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Mag. 7.4+ 30 Mar-7 Apr '23 01:54 U Timing Forecast |
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Forecasting a magnitude
7.4 + or larger quake to
strike "somewhere in the
world" during the eight (8)
day period starting at:
01:54 UTC, 30 March 2023 to
01:54 UTC, 7 April 2023
This is an experimental
"timing only" forecast
__"For Entertainment
Purposes Only"_.
This is a test to see if
previous experimental
results/ inferred correlations
duplicate moving forward
OR
if they are merely the
result of coincidence (or
chance odds) and therefore any
presumed
physical linkages would then
be unfounded.
Posted: 30 March 2023, 02:06
UTC
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Responses:
[22862] [22863] [22869] |
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22862 |
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Date: April 03, 2023 at 21:00:02
From: Leonardo, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Note: 5 sources assigned a Mag. 7.3 to PNG eq. on 2 Apr (preliminary) |
URL: https://www.tsunami.gov/ |
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F.Y.I.,
https://www.tsunami.gov/
(Note: 5 sources assigned a
Mag. 7.3
To this event (preliminarily))
04-02-2023 18:04:12
7.3
46 Mi. 4.3° S 143.2° E
NEW GUINEA PAPUA NEW GUINEA
Guam/CNMI Informational #1
Select Resource
04-02-2023 18:13:42
04-02-2023 18:04:12
7.3
46 Mi. 4.3° S 143.2° E
NEW GUINEA PAPUA NEW GUINEA
American Samoa Informational
#1
Select Resource
04-02-2023 18:13:22
04-02-2023 18:04:12
7.3
46 Mi. 4.3° S 143.2° E
IN NEW GUINEA, PAPUA NEW
GUINEA AK/BC/US West Coast
Informational #1
Select Resource
04-02-2023 18:13:16
04-02-2023 18:04:12
7.3
46 Mi. 4.3° S 143.2° E
NEW GUINEA PAPUA NEW GUINEA
Hawaii Informational #1
Select Resource
04-02-2023 18:12:14
04-02-2023 18:04:12
7.3
46 Mi. 4.3° S 143.2° E
NEW GUINEA PAPUA NEW GUINEA
Non-US/Canada Pacific
Informational #1
Select Resource
Posted at 04:00 UTC 4 Apr 2023
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Responses:
[22863] [22869] |
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22863 |
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Date: April 04, 2023 at 10:02:35
From: ryan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note: 5 sources assigned a Mag. 7.3 to PNG eq. on 2 Apr... |
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technically a miss (under the predicted mag) but close enough to be interesting...
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Responses:
[22869] |
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22869 |
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Date: April 24, 2023 at 12:16:17
From: Leonardo, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note: 5 sources assigned a Mag. 7.3 to PNG eq. on 2 Apr... |
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True....
(Where you tamping down any troll's urges to post by stating that? (Just curious... & looks like it worked :).
The wide variation previously seen to no variation recently (at the same website) seems a bit suspect to me.
Like __maybe__ somebody went and changed their algorithm for setting the magnitude (so they're all on the same page?).
With stated magnitude variation above mag. 7.4 threshold I might have considered it a "hit" (with more than one source & a reviewed posting by a "credible source(s).")
Forecasts appear to be "statistically significant" when using a Mag. 7.3 instead of a mag. 7.4 as the low threshold magnitude for claiming a "hit" / " successful forecast". (& setting aside the "way late post" issue for at least one of the forecasts).
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Responses:
None |
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