Date: March 13, 2023 at 16:50:54 From: Skywise, [DNS_Address] Subject: Who do I talk to about a refund?
After all, it was "GUARANTEED TO HAPPEN".
Over the past month, almost two, there have been several posts about impending quake activity - EQF, Shan, Leonardo, Jack via Mimi, the "GUARANTEED" guy on YT that Pamela linked to...
None of it happened. NONE.
I make a point of this, that failures must be taken into account.
In attempting to develop any method of doing anything, the failures are just as important as the successes. They can not be ignored.
But MOST importantly, is that the failures drive changes in the method to reach the goal.
To drive the point home, I've been around the quake prediction block for a couple decades at least, and I still see a lot of the same names pop up. And it is my observation that most of these individuals have put in a lot of time and energy into their methods which keep failing, and they have YET to acknowledge those failures. Rather, excuses are made.
There's a saying that one definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
I'm going to be blunt here, because I'm going to say what needs to be heard, not what people want to hear. A lot of this is insanity. Some are so obsessed they they are right and everyone else is wrong and anyone who disagrees is part of the problem. Wake up! Acknowledge that what you've been doing isn't working.
Do you think Edison would have developed a practical light bulb if he ignored all the failed attempts and just kept trying the same thing over and over?
I don't post much any more, so it may have been forgot what my views are on quake prediction. I don't know if it's possible or not. There's a lot of evidence it may be impossible. But there's also a lot we don't know, so there may yet be something that can be used to usefully forecast/predict earthquakes. I am not closed off to the possibility.
But the tool of statistics can be used to assess the viability of any method, and so far NO ONE passes. Not even me. Remember, I had a program over 15 years ago where I was able to successfully predict 94% of earthquakes magnitude 4.5 and greater for about two years. No one has even come close to that record. And I was simply playing the odds. I successfully predicted over 17,000 quakes, and statistically I was still a failure.
So, if those who are actually trying can't even do as good, then what does that say about their methods?
I guess to sum it up, let's see something new. The same old sh*t isn't working.
Date: March 14, 2023 at 20:18:03 From: Sunshine, [DNS_Address] Subject: Re: Who do I talk to about a refund?
Agree, I am so sick of all the lies. I believe no more predictions about anything. Nothing ever happens, but they go on and on and on with predictions for all sorts of things. Just lies and the predictors wanting attention. So tired of it and has made me so cynical about believing any and all predictions, including the useless New Age crappola, pardon my 'french'.
Date: March 14, 2023 at 21:01:14 From: Skywise, [DNS_Address] Subject: Re: Who do I talk to about a refund?
Thanks for your comments, Sunshine.
You have a very valid point. And this applies to ANYTHING. Not just quake prediction.
It's hard to trust something when it fails. I am most certainly the same way. Once bitten, twice shy, as the old saying goes.
Which is why a lot of very smart people over many centuries have thought long and hard about the fact that it is so easy to fool ourselves. That's how we've arrived where we are today, with the mental tools that we have. Things like the scientific method, statistics, and more. These are all tools that if applied properly help prevent us from fooling ourselves.
But one thing that is important is to not confound human failings as a failure of science. Yes, there are a lot of things that were once told to us all by "high science" that certain things are so, only to later find out they were lies and deceit. But if you observe for even a minute, you can see that the lies were human lies, twisting words. Not science. Humans. And it is shameful that there are deceitful people "on the dole" for political and economic reasons using their scientific authority in such a manner. But that IS NOT a failing of science itself.
I can understand that people would be twice shy about when someone says "I'm an authority, trust me" when some of those very authorities lied to us.
My answer to that is to educate ones self of the ways of critical thinking and logical fallacies and the scientific method and to apply those techniques themselves to help them determine for themselves if what they are being fed is true or not.
Applying Carl Sagan's Baloney Detection Kit is a good start to determining if that dramatic YouTube video is telling the truth or just vying for views for monetary gain.
Date: March 15, 2023 at 19:35:45 From: Sunshine, [DNS_Address] Subject: Re: Who do I talk to about a refund?
Enjoyed your response Brian, and I don't disagree with any of it. What really has gotten me to the point of disbelief.of so much nonsense out there is not so much about ridiculous earthquake predictions - they are impossible to predict really - but years and years of lying channelings. These so called benevolent beings that channel info to us thro a human person NEVER TELL ONE SINGLE WORD OF TRUTH . I believed them for years - feel so stupid. Not one freaking thing they said EVER happened. The consequence of being fooled for so many years ( my stupidity And lack of critical disurment ) has made me so cynical about almost everything. I do believe science, but not the medical establishment, nor do I believe the govts of the world either. Neither of these establishments have the best intentions for humanity - have always believed that. Anywho, thanks for what you wrote. Enjoyed it.
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Date: March 13, 2023 at 19:22:02 From: pamela, [DNS_Address] Subject: Re: Who do I talk to about a refund?
Date: March 13, 2023 at 19:31:10 From: pamela, [DNS_Address] Subject: Re: Who do I talk to about a refund?
He gave a + - for 7th of March, for energetics happening thru quakes storms or volcanoes this is what came in within the plus minus March 7th watch for quakes only 5.4 northern Colombia 2023-03-10 09:18:41 UTC 159.4 km
6.9 Kermadec Islands, New Zealand 2023-03-04 06:41:22 UTC 205.7 km
6.5 Vanuatu 2023-03-02 18:04:29 UTC 10.0 km
You will note the severe weather was UP as well as volcs.
proves to me you neither watched the vid or read his statement.
Date: March 13, 2023 at 20:02:31 From: Skywise, [DNS_Address] Subject: For Pamela
No, I did not watch the video. Don't have time. I base myself on the text of your post which contains what appears to be a quote from the video and/or it's description.
I will point out that the statement does not give much in the way of specifics, only saying "having the potential to trigger large energetic events like earthquakes or volcanic eruptions." Given such a loose description, I suppose ANY quake or volcanic eruption that happens anywhere in the time frame could be considered a hit.
Think about it. That's like saying there might be rain somewhere on the planet. What use is that?
None.
Since you quoted a quake of magnitude 5.4, I did a little scanning of the USGS database.
Since January 1, 1973, there have been a total of 30,540 earthquakes of magnitude 5.4 or larger.
That's 30,540 quakes over the course of 18,333 days. Or on average 1.67 quakes per day.
So claiming a hit over the course of a 7 day window (" March 7th +/- 3 ") is statistically GUARANTEED TO HAPPEN indeed!!!!
Date: March 13, 2023 at 20:12:18 From: pamela, [DNS_Address] Subject: Re: For Pamela/Skywise
I don't care. I really like that he's a real Geophysicist, explains why the Schumann resonance may be picking up lots of activity. If you don't have time to look into what he does then don't make comments like you know what he does. Cheers.
Can't really argue with that. Meaning, there's no point arguing with someone who doesn't care. I could have all the irrefutable proof and analysis in the world, but if in the end you don't care because you prefer a belief because it makes you feel good....
Ignorance is bliss.
I'm gonna get real mean here for a moment. If it wasn't for statistics and science backed up with cold hard facts, the medical knowledge that might one day save your life wouldn't exist. I hope you care about that.
Don't take that to mean I wish harm upon you. Far from it. I genuinely hope you have a long healthy life. And I am grateful for the medical knowledge gained through the methods of science that will help you do just that.
But the math doesn't lie. The facts don't lie. Or to quote Richard Dawkins,
Date: March 13, 2023 at 20:47:14 From: pamela, [DNS_Address] Subject: Re: For Pamela/Skywise
I don't care if you have the time to search it out and see what he is saying. If you don't have the time, then don't make the claim you knew what the post was telling you including watching the video. Cheers.
Date: March 14, 2023 at 20:44:47 From: Skywise, [DNS_Address] Subject: Re: For Pamela/Skywise
I based my critique on what you posted.
So, the text you posted is different from what the video itself actually contains?
I checked, the text you quoted is from the text description on the video.
So the only rectification is if what the author describes about the video is different than the video itself.
If the description of the video is different than the content of the video, that raises a new set of questions. Perhaps it's all just attention getting click bait?
Brian
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Date: March 13, 2023 at 17:17:44 From: mimici/socal, [DNS_Address] Subject: Re: Who do I talk to about a refund?
I don't remember ever saying Jack "guaranteed" anything. In fact he contacted me the other day to say all those signals he'd been receiving for over a year, very strange cluster signals incredibly loud and chaotic and therefore misleading in a way, turned out to be for Turkey mega quake and all the aftershocks. He waited a month after Turkey to make this determination to be confident.
Date: March 13, 2023 at 20:57:00 From: mimici/socal, [DNS_Address] Subject: Re: For Mimi...
Like I said, he's telling me that the signals were actually for Turkey. That luke character announces a major quake every other day, Jack has an actual method but doesn't always nail it.
Date: March 14, 2023 at 05:35:28 From: Shan, [DNS_Address] Subject: Observation only...
Well. Thanks for the credit. My website speaks my level of success that too more or less on daily basis. I need observations for finding more locations that too with one observatory than conversations will spoil my time. Regards,
Shan
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Date: March 13, 2023 at 20:21:56 From: Skywise, [DNS_Address] Subject: For Jordan
umm ok I get what you're saying and I agree no one yet has hit the date time location.
I agree jack Coles to turn and say that all the signals where for turkey after the quake was not earthquake prediction it is like failing a test and turning around and saying i passed.
Earth currently has an axial tilt of about 23.44°. This value remains about the same relative to a stationary orbital plane throughout the cycles of axial precession. But the ecliptic (i.e., Earth's orbit) moves due to planetary perturbations, and the obliquity of the ecliptic is not a fixed quantity.
did you see this. I don't know about tilting. Melting Glaciers Have Shifted the Earth’s Axis
Date: March 14, 2023 at 21:17:23 From: Skywise, [DNS_Address] Subject: Re: For Jordan
Yes. I am aware of the slow changes of the axial tilt of the Earth over time. It's caused by many factors such as those pointed out in that article. And others.
But this is different than what Shan is claiming.
Shan claims that the Earths axis is wobbling around on a daily basis, enough so that he can visually see this by measuring fuzzy shadows of his window on a wall.
But if this were so, it would be detected very easily. And it simply isn't seen.
A simple example are astronomical telescopes. These scopes, both professional and amateur, have to be calibrated and aligned to the Earth's axis in order to track celestial objects accurately otherwise the pictures they take would be smeared.
Let's say you set up a telescope one day and accurately align it with the Earth's axis. Then you point to a particular star and note it's coordinates while it's being tracked in the center of the imaging system. Then the Earth's axis shifts. The next time you point the scope to those same exact coordinates, what happens? That star will NOT be centered as it was before. And even the tiniest of misalignment will be noticed. Telescopes are capable of measuring positions better than a thousandth of a degree. If the Earth's axis tilted enough one day to where it can be noticed by a Sun shadow (surely a good fraction or more than a degree), do you think such a high precision instrument would miss it?
Ah!! But this is a conspiracy!!! "They" are hiding it from us!!!
OK. Even if we grant for a moment the ridiculous idea that every professional astronomer in the world has been threatened to the point of hiding this from the public, what about all us amateur astronomers who are free to speak on the interwebz?
Where is even one astronomer, professional or amateur, showing the proof that the Earth's axis is not behaving as predicted?
That alone is all that's needed to dismiss Shan. I conjecture that the task of measuring a fuzzy shadow on a wall by eye is simply too subjective to have any meaningful accuracy.