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22842 |
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Date: March 15, 2023 at 20:04:56
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Comments for Mr. Bopp - March 15, 2023 |
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Posted by EQF on March 15, 2023
Wow. Once again, just in time!
Things have been fairly quiet and pleasant on this forum for a while. I was just about to start telling other scientists etc. to consider reading posts on this forum.
Once again there has been a note posting storm. So, it appears once again that recommending this forum to other scientists will permanently be impossible.
On the other hand, THANKS, seriouosly, for hosting this forum. There is MUCH valuable information being posted here.
SCIENTISTS
I myself have several degrees in the physical sciences. I ALSO have a few extraordinary science publications. Most involve standard physics and chemistry etc.
One publication that few people know about discussed earthquake forecasting. I actually own the U.S. copyright for that paper. That formal copyright cost me a few bucks to obtain.
If you check the following recent post you will see that I agreed with Shan that a significant aftershock could be headed for the Turkey - Syria area.
http://earthboppin.net/talkshop/rollem/messages/22784.html
2023/02/20 17:04:29 36.11N 36.02E 16 6.3 "3 km SSW of Uzunba?, Turkey"
That Turkey - Syria earthquake occurred just as I expected it might, around February 20, 2023. I believe that something like 10 fatalities were reported in the news.
My posts here are deliberately relatively bland. That is to intended to keep people reading the notes from getting frightened about an expected approaching earthquake.
In all the years that I have been generating forecasts, no one to my knowledge has ever gone into a panic after seeing one of my forecasts. Some have been both highly accurate and very public. After one of my Newsgroup posts, the earthquake occurred when and where it was expected. Some 4000 lives were reportedly lost.
Back on 2015 I sent a specific earthquake aftershock warning to multiple parties working for one particular government plus international disaster management personnel.
The earthquake occurred exactly when and where I proposed to them it would. 125 people reportedly lost their lives.
A major goal at the moment is to develop some way of EFFECTIVELY warning Turkey and Syria government officials if my forecasting method indicates that a powerful and destructive aftershock might be about to occur. Several are probably likely to occur during the next few years. Everyone already knows that.
The important part is to let people know WHEN one of those aftershocks is likely to occur.
I am also making an effort to get governments ete. to start working with my highly complex earthquake forecasting computer program code and develop a more advanced program that should eventually be able to learn how to improve its own performance.
I also own the formal U.S. copyright for that computer code. That cost me a few bucks as well.
The computer program uses sun and moon location data along with data for ocean tides and Solid Earth Tides.
Roger helped develop the sun and moon location code that were based on information he got from a celestial mechanics science expert.
The sun and moon data that computer code generates is in good agreement with a U.S. Navy computer program. If I remember correctly, it is called MICA. It cost me a few bucks to get a computer disk version of that program quite a few years ago.
My Solid Earth Tide computer code (ETGTAB) were originally developed by (the late) internationally known scientist George Wenzel.
My ocean tide data are from the following Web site:
http://tbone.biol.sc.edu/tide/
EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING
Earthquake forecasting is a solid, very real science.
Forecasting earthquakes is almost exactly like forecasting the weather. Different data are simply being used.
Earthquakes are actually probably easier to predict than the weather.
The MAIN problem appears to be that if you make repeated inaccurate weather forecast you might at worst just lose your job at a news service or government agency.
in contrast, if you make a very specific and inaccurate public earthquake forecast you could get the general public and your own government upset.
That type of possibility is highly frightening to many researchers around the world. That fear is having a dramatic slowing effect on the science of earthquake forecasting.
People in my own specialty area of science are largely fearless, but also careful about the information they circulate in public.
I have been over all of this multiple times with different groups attorneys here in the U.S.
I obtained one formal written professional opinion from one of them regarding the legality of predicting earthquakes here in the U.S.
Earthquake Forecasts are considered "Protected Speech" here in the U.S. under the U.S. Constitution's Bill of Rights.
However, SELLING earthquake forecasts here in the U.S. is regulated in California and perhaps other states.
You had better know what you are doing before you try to sell any forecasting information here in the U.S. One forecasting group that I know about got into quite a bit of trouble with that.
I decided long ago that it would be difficult to sell earthquake forecasting data as they have inherent accuracy limitations just as weather forecasting data have.
As a consequence, I simply make my forecast data available for free on my Web site for anyone to use.
Several of my earthquake forecasting charts were created specifically for earthquake researchers in the People's Republic of China to use.
My data and earthquake forecasting method and computer program (and Roger's computer program code) were discussed in detail quite a few years ago by one of my research colleagues during a disaster mitigation conference in Beijing.
These are personal opinions.
Regards to all.
EQF
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[22860] [22846] [22844] [22848] [22850] [22849] [22845] [22843] |
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22860 |
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Date: March 30, 2023 at 05:44:04
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Comments Update - March 30, 2023 |
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Posted by EQF on March 30, 2023
There is a fair amount of earthquake forecasting activity taking place.
As I have said before, I had been planning to start talking with government officials etc. about the science of earthquake forecasting when I had my earthquake forecasting computer program working to the right degree.
That happened several weeks ago.
During the past few weeks I had a VERY public meeting with one U.S. government official and then a shorter personal meeting. During the personal meeting I stated that many of our earthquakes can be predicted and that they are likely easier to predict than the weather.
I stated that perhaps the main reason that the U.S. government and other governments are not accurately predicting earthquakes is because the scientists who are SUPPOSED to be doing this work are dragging their collective feet.
I said, "Governments are giving earthquake forecasting money to the wrong people. As those people are not doing the work they SHOULD be doing, you need to transfer responsibility for predicting earthquakes to people who ARE actually interested in doing the necessary work."
What I would personally recommend is that one particular group in the Europe - Asia area should get some funding. They have perhaps the most useful earthquake forecasting program of any. It relies mainly on ground tilt measurements collected in no longer working coal mines etc. They are also doing some gravity sensing work.
I also followed those two meetings with a strongly worded E-mail addressed to that particular government official.
There has been no response so far. I am not actually expecting one. But at least this effort is now formally underway.
I do actually know how to get things done with regard to government officials. But, it usually takes a lot of time and effort. On occasion, they will react quickly, depending on the subject matter.
These are personal opinions.
Regards to all,
EQF
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22846 |
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Date: March 16, 2023 at 02:37:34
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Comments for Mr. Bopp - March 15, 2023 |
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Posted by EQF on March 18, 2023
I think that I can say with a considerable amount of confidence that many people who have actually gone through the trouble and expense of getting one or more degrees in science would be embarrassed to read some of the notes being posted here.
However, there ARE some notes that appear to me to contain valuable information for scientists who might want to learn about earthquakes and earthquake forecasting.
One common courtesy rule when posting public notes to forums is to refer to other people by using their chosen "Pen Names." I personally regard it as being impolite at the least to do otherwise.
Over the years, Roger and I had sharp differences regarding whether or not earthquakes can be predicted. But, we both have degrees in science and know that professional courtesy is important even when there are sharp differences in opinion regarding some subject.
These are personal opinions.
Regards to all,
EQF
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22844 |
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Date: March 16, 2023 at 00:42:47
From: Cinnamon in Oregon, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Comments for Mr. Bopp - March 15, 2023 |
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Is it just me or....I would expect even good forecasts to often fail. Because conditions and contributing factors often change. Sun activity changes, etc.
Rather like the weather forecasts. Conditions change, which means that the forecast will change - or fail.
I always take the forecasts here "that" way. As a "watch" alert. Then I check my own symptoms, animal behavior in the area, and make my own assessment.
If the forecasts are "often" right but "often" wrong - then I see the glass as "half-full". When we are dealing with a menace as potentially destructive as earthquakes....isn't "half" a glass better than none at all?
It's rather like the Covid vaccine that was not fully tested when it was first released. The overwhelming menace of getting Covid and being intubated far outweighed the inconvenience of the uncertainty of a not-fully-tested vaccine that did not work 100% of the time.
You have to do a a mental risk/benefit analysis. I choose to accept the uncertainty of not-so-perfect forecasting. If the forecast fails, then I consider it a valuable "fire drill". An emergency preparedness drill. On the other hand, it the forecast winds up being accurate, lives are saved.
Just saying....
Many things in this world just aren't perfected yet.
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22848 |
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Date: March 19, 2023 at 05:48:00
From: blindhog 6th sense, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Based on Paragraph 5, U Aren't Smart Enough to Give Any One Advice |
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According to the Jew who, in his own
words, helped the Nazis, George Soros,
said Covid-19 "helped also legitimize
instruments of control". (A video of him
saying those exact words is in the
documentary found on Rumble, "Died
Suddenly".)
Hmm, it seems he's still helping them!
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22850 |
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Date: March 19, 2023 at 12:18:50
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Based on Paragraph 5, U Aren't Smart Enough to Give Any One... |
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22849 |
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Date: March 19, 2023 at 10:05:04
From: Cinnamon in Oregon, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Based on Paragraph 5, U Aren't Smart Enough to Give Any One... |
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After reading your posts over the years, I've long since surmised you wouldn't know the difference between fact and fiction if it bit you on the rear.
It is pointless arguing with you folks. So...I will now continue my usual M.O. of just not responding.
Outta this conversation.
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22845 |
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Date: March 16, 2023 at 02:12:31
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Comments for Mr. Bopp - March 15, 2023 |
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Posted by EQF on March 16, 2023
I totally agree that when a location has been identified for a possible approaching earthquake, a variety of precursors should be checked for that area. They could help verify that an earthquake is or is not approaching.
Precursors could include unusual animal behavior, glowing lights on the horizon, and fresh or growing larger cracks in building foundations.
There are existing groups that forecast earthquakes like that. I have had many conversations with a number of them over the decades.
I live and work far from any fault zones and cannot myself make any direct measurements like that. I have to rely on other forecaster's data to confirm my own.
These are personal opinions.
Regards,
EQF
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22843 |
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Date: March 15, 2023 at 21:51:27
From: Skywise, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Comments for Mr. Bopp - March 15, 2023 |
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"Wow. Once again, just in time!
Things have been fairly quiet and pleasant on this forum for a while. I was just about to start telling other
scientists etc. to consider reading posts on this forum.
Once again there has been a note posting storm. So, it appears once again that recommending this forum to other
scientists will permanently be impossible."
I knew I should have posted about this. I knew you'd chime in exactly like this, like you always do. I could
have earned points for a successful prediction. But alas, I kept my mouth shut. My bad.
Ed, you have got to understand that YOU cannot control other people's forums. What other people post or say. You
do not own or control this forum.
It has become quite obvious to me over the years by your reaction to any sort of criticisms even vaguely thrown
your way that you have some sort of mental issue. Don't get me wrong. I'm not judging you negatively for that.
If there's one thing I've learned is that we ALL have our issues, neuroses, hangups. Even myself. For most folks
they are mild, but there's also some to the extreme. It's because of this that I pretty much leave you alone any
more. As much as I'd like to really rip into you at times, I feel it would be shameful to do so to someone who
obviously has problems to deal with.
A point of fact, my job involves working with people who have personal barriers, some of them who couldn't hold
a regular job in a 'normal' environment and need routine coaching and assistance. I manage a crew of people with
various levels of problems and the experience has helped me to adapt to my own personal hiccups.
But I am going to rip into you just a but anyway, because even people who have mental problems need to be told
the truth to help them learn to cope with the realities of the world they live in.
You are certainly entitled to your "personal opinions". And I am entitled to disagree with them. And you are
certainly entitled to disagree with me. That's freedom. That is what free speech is all about.
And, I agree with you that your forecasts and opinions are free speech protected in the USofA by our
Constitution.
What is NOT protected is your demand to control who, what, where, how, or when anyone else expresses their
Constitutionally protected right of their free speech. To attempt to do so is being a hypocrite.
If you post something and someone wants to comment about it, THAT is protected as well as what you wrote.
This forum is a private forum, run by Ryan/Bopp. He makes the rules. He controls things. I respect that even
though he and I have had our disagreements in the past about how he runs things. But I still respect it. Nothing
is forcing me to participate here. Nothing is forcing YOU to participate here.
So, although I feel you have some sort of mental issue for which, again, is why I don't engage you hardly ever
more, the fact that every time I pop up and express my Constitutionally protected right to my "personal opinion"
about what you anyone else said, you get all bent out of shape and try to claim that I can't do that, sometimes
with implied consequences.
As the old saying goes, if you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen.
Sorry. But that's the facts of the world. Cruel as it is.
Criticism is a cornerstone of scientific debate. If you really are a scientist with multiple degrees and having
published papers as you claim, then you would know this.
Brian
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