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22631 |
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Date: September 21, 2022 at 11:18:16
From: Mikhail, [DNS_Address]
Subject: NorCal M6.4 +/- 0.2 on 10/27 +/- 3d PDT |
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PREDICTED TIME: Thursday, Oct. 27,
2022, Noon Pacific Daylight Time, plus or
minus 72 hours (mainshock only, aftershocks are
irrelevant to this prediction).
PREDICTED MAGNITUDE: 6.2 - 6.6
(moment magnitude, USGS).
PREDICTED LOCATION: Within
California north of 36 degrees N.
(including offshore to edge of continent).
PROBABILITY of hitting all parameters by random
coincidence:
<0.02% based on prior 100-year EQ history (USGS)
(odds of success: 1 in ~6000)
NO CONFIDENCE LEVEL PROVIDED -- INSUFFICIENT TRACK
RECORD.
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Responses:
[22656] [22653] [22654] [22632] [22633] |
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22656 |
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Date: October 30, 2022 at 19:39:38
From: Mikhail, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: NorCal M6.4 +/- 0.2 on 10/27 +/- 3d PDT (RESULT) |
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MISS -- by 1.1 M units.
Magnitude: 5.1, 15km ESE of Alum Rock (San Jose), CA
Time: 2022-10-25 11:42:02 (UTC-07:00)
Location: 37.312 deg N, 121.672 deg W
Depth: 8.4 km
Quake was reported felt throughout CA and in seven
surrounding states, and garnered ~24,000 reports to the
USGS Did You Feel It website.
But...a miss, nevertheless.
счастливого Хэллоуина!
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Responses:
None |
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22653 |
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Date: October 25, 2022 at 11:53:38
From: Mikhail, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: NorCal M6.4 +/- 0.2 on 10/27 +/- 3d PDT |
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M5.1 - 14km E of Seven Trees (San Jose), CA, 2022-10-25
18:42:02 (UTC)37.311°N 121.677°W6.9 km depth
MISS. Too small by 1.1 M units.
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Responses:
[22654] |
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22654 |
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Date: October 25, 2022 at 12:21:06
From: ryan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: NorCal M6.4 +/- 0.2 on 10/27 +/- 3d PDT |
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Responses:
None |
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22632 |
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Date: September 21, 2022 at 22:01:32
From: Skywise, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: NorCal M6.4 +/- 0.2 on 10/27 +/- 3d PDT |
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I come up with better odds... about 1.48% or 1 in 676.
I found 9 events in the past 100 years meeting your prediction
criteria that were not aftershocks of something larger.
Event ID Date/Time Latitude Longitude Depth Mag Event Type
iscgem910175 1926/10/22T13:35:27.000000 36.72500000 -122.18000000 10.0000 6.300 earthquake
iscgem906203 1932/06/06T08:44:26.000000 40.73000000 -124.21100000 15.0000 6.400 earthquake
nc1032447 1976/11/26T11:19:32.070000 41.03516670 -124.94966670 41.7800 6.300 earthquake
nc1053177 1980/05/27T14:50:56.810000 37.50333330 -118.80550000 13.7950 6.200 earthquake
nc17204 1984/04/24T21:15:18.760000 37.30966670 -121.67883330 8.1930 6.200 earthquake
nc10085763 1986/07/21T14:42:26.000000 37.53800000 -118.44283330 8.8040 6.400 earthquake
nc71338066 2010/01/10T00:27:39.320000 40.65200000 -124.69250000 28.7370 6.500 earthquake
nn00725272 2020/05/15T11:03:27.176000 38.16890000 -117.84970000 2.7000 6.500 earthquake
nc73666231 2021/12/20T20:10:31.310000 40.39016670 -124.29800000 27.0400 6.200 earthquake
Using the Jones consecutive windows method.
9/21/1922 to 9/21/2022 is 36526 days.
Prediction window is 6 days, so that's 6087.6667 windows.
9 had hits, so that's 9/6087.6667 = 0.001478
Brian
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Responses:
[22633] |
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22633 |
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Date: September 22, 2022 at 06:40:07
From: Mikhail, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: NorCal M6.4 +/- 0.2 on 10/27 +/- 3d PDT |
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Thank you, Brian. Quite right, sir. I mistakenly included
an aftershock of the big Mendocino EQ in 1992, and I
mistyped an extra zero early in my arithmetic. Chance
odds of 1 in ~600 are sufficiently remote for me. (I
should stay in my lane and stick to squirt-gun painting.)
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Responses:
None |
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