| Roll & Rock
|
[
Roll & Rock ] [ Main Menu ] |
|
|
|
22634 |
|
|
Date: September 25, 2022 at 20:35:01
From: Leonardo, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Mag. 7.4+ 26 Sep to 4 Oct 2022, 00:01 UT Timing Forecast |
|
|
Subject: Mag. 7.4+ 26 Sep to 4 Oct 2022, 00:01 UTC,
00:01 PM Timing Forecast
Forecasting a magnitude 7.4 + or larger quake to
strike somewhere in the world during the eight (8) day
period starting at:
00:01 UTC, 26 Sep 2022 to
00:01 UTC, 04 Oct 2022 UTC.
This is an experimental "timing only" forecast
__"For Entertainment Purposes Only"_.
This is a test to see if previous experimental results
duplicate moving forward or if they were merely the
results of chance or coincidence.
Posted: 03:33 UTC , 26 SEP 2022 UTC.
---------------------------------------------------
((Hazarding) a previous "closest match" using a sparse
data set a > 300 km deep M 7.7 hit within ~16 hours of
detection of experimental "signal data" under test.
This statement is not part of the forecast nor does it
imply any confidence in it's reliability for any
purpose other than _maybe_ "entertainment")
|
|
|
|
|
Responses:
[22636] [22638] |
|
22636 |
|
|
Date: September 26, 2022 at 17:16:04
From: Skywise, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Mag. 7.4+ 26 Sep to 4 Oct 2022, 00:01 UT Timing Forecast |
|
|
Using the USGS database from 1950 to present, I found a
total of 373 events mag 7.4 and greater.
Using the Jones consecutive window method, that gives a
probability of about 11.2%.
Manually examining the list, I eliminated 45 quakes as
aftershocks (admittedly subjective), resulting in a total
of 328 events and a probability of about 9.9%.
Good luck!
Brian
|
|
|
|
|
Responses:
[22638] |
|
22638 |
|
|
Date: September 28, 2022 at 14:12:35
From: Leonardo, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Mag. 7.4+ 26 Sep to 4 Oct 2022, 00:01 UT Timing Forecast |
URL: http://earthboppin.net/talkshop/rollem/messages/22573.html |
|
L. >Or 1 in 10.6 (9.37 %) ...
Just for clarification:
That's the (quickly) estimated odds of "just for the
quake (time period only as no location is given)".
As you may know, this does not include the odds of the
"signal data" (under test) - which is multiplied by
the quake (timing period) odds to get the combined
odds of both the signal /data being tested and the
(forecasted) quake (timing period).
L.
------------------------------------------------------
http://earthboppin.net/talkshop/rollem/messages/22573.
html
The combined (chance) odds are bigly way lower ....
L.
|
|
|
|
|
Responses:
None |
|
[
Roll & Rock ] [ Main Menu ] |