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22548 |
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Date: May 18, 2022 at 22:59:01
From: Leonardo, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Mag. 7.4+ 19-27 May 22, 02:18 utc Timing forecast |
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Forecasting a magnitude 7.4 + or
larger quake to strike somewhere in
the world during the eight (8) day
period starting at 02:19 AM, 19 May
2022.
This is an experimental "timing only"
forecast _"for entertainment purposes
only"_. Also read the disclaimer
above.
This is a test to see if previous
results duplicate moving forward or
if they were merely the results of
coincidence.
Posted: 05:58 AM utc, 19 May 2022 to
RAR /EB.
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Responses:
[22553] [22554] [22555] [22556] [22559] [22573] |
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22553 |
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Date: May 26, 2022 at 06:22:02
From: sher, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Mag. 7.4+ 19-27 May 22, 02:18 utc Timing forecast(NT) |
URL: https://m.emsc.eu/index.php#page2 |
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Responses:
[22554] [22555] [22556] [22559] [22573] |
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22554 |
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Date: May 26, 2022 at 06:23:30
From: sher, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Mag. 7.4+ 19-27 May 22, 02:18 utc Timing forecast(NT)(NT) |
URL: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000hcmn/executive |
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Responses:
[22555] [22556] [22559] [22573] |
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22555 |
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Date: May 26, 2022 at 09:28:00
From: Leonardo, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Mag. 7.2 26 May 2022, 12:02 utc Peru (within time window) |
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M 7.2 - 13 km WNW of Azángaro, Peru
2022-05-26 12:02:20 (UTC)
14.863°S 70.308°W
217.8 km depth
as sher pointed out & quickly too.
(It's a little short on magnitude
by 0.2 mag. but it may still be
"statistically significant" at
the lower magnitude threshold. I'll
have to check when I get the chance.)
16:27 u
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Responses:
[22556] [22559] [22573] |
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22556 |
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Date: May 26, 2022 at 17:38:08
From: Skywise, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Mag. 7.2 26 May 2022, 12:02 utc Peru (within time window) |
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Technically a miss due to the magnitude.
A quick back of the envelope calculation that's probably
not 100% accurate suggests a success probability on your
prediction at about 1 in 10, based on USGS quake data for
1950 through 1999.
Can you share what your experimental method is?
Brian
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Responses:
[22559] [22573] |
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22559 |
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Date: May 28, 2022 at 14:39:50
From: Leonardo, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Mag. 7.2 26 May 2022, 12:02 utc Peru (within time window) |
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>Technically a miss due to the magnitude.
Yes- That's what this means: "(It's a little short on
magnitude by 0.2 mag. " ....
>suggests a success probability on your prediction at
about 1 in 10, based on USGS quake data for
1950 through 1999.
Or 1 in 10.6 (9.37 %) ...
>Can you share what your experimental method is?
Not at this time....
L.
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Responses:
[22573] |
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22573 |
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Date: June 07, 2022 at 21:13:04
From: Leonardo, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Mag. 7.2 26 May 2022, 12:02 utc Peru (within time window) |
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B. >>suggests a success probability on your prediction
at
about 1 in 10, based on USGS quake data for
1950 through 1999.
L. >Or 1 in 10.6 (9.37 %) ...
Just for clarification:
That's the (quickly) estimated odds of "just for the
quake (time period only as no location is given)".
As you may know, this does not include the odds of the
"signal data" (under test) - which is multiplied by
the quake (timing period) odds to get the combined
odds of both the signal /data being tested and the
(forecasted) quake (timing period).
L.
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Responses:
None |
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