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22250 |
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Date: December 02, 2021 at 01:47:45
From: Richter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Prediction, China, today Dec.2 and Japan... |
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Predictions:
1. China, today Dec.2, 10:27 UTC, N. Xinjiang, 42 / 84
errors +-6h, R=600 km.
If M6.0+ then: +-72h and R=900 km.
==============================
2. Japan, Dec.3-4, Volcano Isl., 22 / 144, or and
Ryukyu, 24 / 125
======================
Magn.M4.5+
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Responses:
[22262] [22258] [22251] [22253] [22254] [22257] [22259] [22263] [22260] [22261] [22266] |
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22262 |
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Date: December 05, 2021 at 02:59:29
From: Richter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Results: China and 2nd in Ryukyu, Japan... |
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Prediction:
2. Japan, Dec.3-4, Volcano Isl., 22 / 144, or and
Ryukyu, 24 / 125
======================
Magn.M4.5+
============
2nd Result:
Mw 5.0
Region RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
Date time 2021-12-05 02:14:29.0 UTC
Location 29.28 N ; 129.42 E
==========================
Location: error 555 km.-predicted
M5.0>>>M4.5+-predicted
Time: error near Dec.4-predicted
Total: Predicted, becouse near Dates Dec. 3-4
earthquake activity in region Ryukyu, Japan
and China:Dec.5, S. Xinjiang, M4.5
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Responses:
None |
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22258 |
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Date: December 04, 2021 at 08:19:51
From: Richter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Result, 4.9, Japan... |
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PREDICTION:
2. Japan, Dec.3-4, Volcano Isl., 22 / 144, or and
Ryukyu, 24 / 125
======================
Result:
mb 4.9
Region RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
Date time 2021-12-04 15:08:15.7 UTC
Location 29.33 N ; 129.13 E
===================
Hit
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Responses:
None |
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22251 |
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Date: December 02, 2021 at 23:19:09
From: Richter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: 1st Result: China, M3.9-failure... |
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Prediction:
1. China, today Dec.2, 10:27 UTC, N. Xinjiang, 42 / 84
errors +-6h, R=600 km.
If M6.0+ then: +-72h and R=900 km.
==============================
Result:
M 3.9
Region EASTERN XIZANG
Date time 2021-12-02 17:40:50.0 UTC
Location 31.34 N ; 90.85 E
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Location: too long-failure
M3.9<<Date: predicted
Time: error 7:13-predicted
Total: failure
But: the Method is other
=========
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Responses:
[22253] [22254] [22257] [22259] [22263] [22260] [22261] [22266] |
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22253 |
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Date: December 03, 2021 at 11:30:28
From: rh5919899, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: 1st Result: China, M3.9-failure... |
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Richter;
Since you have a complete list of all your predictions,
take the next step.
Count all your hits and misses and divide the number of hits by the total number of predictions.
If the answer is 0.50 or less you've proved you are worse than chance.
Let us know how it comes out.
Roger
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Responses:
[22254] [22257] [22259] [22263] [22260] [22261] [22266] |
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22254 |
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Date: December 03, 2021 at 23:47:48
From: Richter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Roger, nothing personal... |
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Roger, you do it, please.
I will not be mad. Nothing personal.
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Responses:
[22257] [22259] [22263] [22260] [22261] [22266] |
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22257 |
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Date: December 04, 2021 at 06:48:53
From: rh5919899, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Roger, nothing personal... |
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Richter;
I don;t have a comprehensive list of all your predictions.
Do you have one I can download?
Roger
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Responses:
[22259] [22263] [22260] [22261] [22266] |
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22259 |
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Date: December 04, 2021 at 12:52:28
From: rh5919899, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Roger, nothing personal... |
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Richter
If you don't have a list of your predictions I can't do a proper evaluation.
I don't have the energy (at my age) to compile such a list and edit it into something computer readable.
Sorry
Roger
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Responses:
[22263] [22260] [22261] [22266] |
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22263 |
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Date: December 05, 2021 at 03:02:27
From: Richter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: ОК, Roger, but wait end of December... |
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Roger, I'm going to calculate the probability of 47
predictions for December. We have to wait ..
Below in forum my 47 Predictions for December.
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Responses:
None |
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22260 |
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Date: December 04, 2021 at 19:32:05
From: Skywise, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Roger, nothing personal... |
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Roger, would you be able to send me a copy of your
evaluation code? As I rewrite my Quake3D program I
eventually want to add prediction evaluation tools to the
software and your code could serve as a resource for me
to write my own routines based on the methods you use.
Admittedly, it will be quite a while before I get to that
point.
Brian
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Responses:
[22261] [22266] |
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22261 |
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Date: December 04, 2021 at 20:33:12
From: rh5919899, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Roger, nothing personal... |
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Brian;
Do you want math or code?
The math is as I said to richter; hits divided by number of predictions.
Roger
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Responses:
[22266] |
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22266 |
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Date: December 05, 2021 at 21:07:04
From: Skywise, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Roger, nothing personal... |
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I meant the Jones stuff.
Brian
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Responses:
None |
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