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22206 |
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Date: November 01, 2021 at 01:45:54
From: Richter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: November: 22 Predictions, Taiwan, California, Italy, India, ... |
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Predictions:
1. Nov.2, 0:58, Fiji, -22 / -177
2. Nov.2, 17:18, NC of M. Peru, -10 / -79
3. Nov.6, 0:17, Oregon, 44 / -128
4. Nov.6, 10:48, Iran, 31 / 57
5. Nov.6, 7:18, Philippines, 7 / 127
6. Nov.9, 8:42, New Br.Reg, PNG, -4 / 153
7. Nov.10, 16:06, Kermadec Isl., NZ, -30 / -177
8. Nov.11, 15:22, Hindu Kush, 34 / 70
9. Nov.12, 10:18, Oregon, 40 / -124
10. Nov.16, 0:10, C. Italy, 43 / 13
11. Nov.16, 4:31(or 16:42), Philippines, 9 / 126
12: Nov.21, 15:49, Tonga, -16 / -174 (expect powerful)
13. Nov.21, 3:30, S. Greece(Crete), 37 / 21
14. Nov.21, 8:43, Russia, 46 / 151
15. Nov.22, 3:00, California, 37 / -122
16. Nov.23, 0:18, India, 24 / 94
17. Nov.23, 2:54, S. Iran, 28 / 55
18. Nov.23, 22:18, Taiwan, 27 / 125
19. Nov.25, 6:48, S. Italy, 42 / 14
20. Nov.26, 6:18, Oregon, 40 / -126
21. Nov.27, 11:09, Hindu Kush, 36 / 71
22. Nov.29, 10:48, S. Italy, 42 / 14
=======================================
Errors:
M4.5+
Normal: +-24h, R=500 km.
If M6.0+ then: +-72h, R=900 km.
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Responses:
[22247] [22248] [22249] [22246] [22244] [22243] [22242] [22234] [22227] [22209] [22219] [22210] [22213] [22214] [22211] [22212] |
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22247 |
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Date: November 30, 2021 at 00:55:47
From: Richter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: S. Italy, M4.4, failure...Last prediction |
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Prediction:
22. Nov.29, 10:48, S. Italy, 42 / 14
====================================
Result:
mb 4.4
Region SICILY, ITALY
Date time 2021-11-28 02:52:32.4 UTC
Location 38.70 N ; 14.19 E
==================================
Location: error 420 km.-predicted
M4.5+>M4.4, but near, Aftershock-predicted
Time: error -31:56-near +-24h-not predicted-failure
Total: Failure
near 2021-11-29: had seismic activity
=====================
wait next Month-December
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Responses:
[22248] [22249] |
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22248 |
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Date: November 30, 2021 at 07:40:30
From: rh5919899, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: S. Italy, M4.4, failure...Last prediction |
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Richter;
Thanks for evaluating your predictions, Saves me a lot of time.
But you would do better to concentrate on mag 6+. The litle ones don't matter.
Roger
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Responses:
[22249] |
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22249 |
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Date: November 30, 2021 at 22:23:34
From: Richter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: S. Italy, M4.4, failure...Last prediction |
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Roger, for October below I predicted an earthquake in
California with an error of 1 minute and M4.7. I left a
mistake for 1 minute to have a job and for you to
criticize me....
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Responses:
None |
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22246 |
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Date: November 27, 2021 at 03:21:50
From: Richter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Hindu Kush, M4.0, near hit, but wait... |
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Prediction:
21. Nov.27, 11:09, Hindu Kush, 36 / 71
====================
Result:
mb 4.0
Region HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN
Date time 2021-11-27 02:37:45.0 UTC
Location 36.52 N ; 70.21 E
==========================
Location: predicted
Date: predicted
M4.0 near M4.5+-not predicted
Time: error 8:32, but wait-predicted
Not hit-now, wait
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Responses:
None |
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22244 |
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Date: November 26, 2021 at 01:39:55
From: Richter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Result: India, M6.2, error 71h, HIT |
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Prediction:
6. Nov.23, 0:18, India, 24 / 94
======================
Result:
Mw 6.2
Region MYANMAR-INDIA BORDER REGION
Date time 2021-11-25 23:45:40.7 UTC
Location 22.80 N ; 93.57 E
============================
Location: error 111 km.-predicted
M6.2>>>>M4.5+ and -predicted
Time: error 71:45<72h-predicted
Total: HIT
===========
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Responses:
None |
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22243 |
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Date: November 24, 2021 at 03:12:05
From: Richter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Result: Taiwan, M5.2...near hit |
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Prediction:
18. Nov.23, 22:18, Taiwan, 27 / 125
=================
Result:
mb 5.2
Region TAIWAN REGION
Date time 2021-11-24 09:55:18.9 UTC
Location 24.02 N ; 122.45 E
======================
Location: predicted
M5.2>>>>>M4.5+-predicted
Time: error 11:37-predicted
near hit, becouse M5.2<<<=========================
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Responses:
None |
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22242 |
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Date: November 23, 2021 at 23:35:19
From: Richter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Result: Iran, M5.0...near hit |
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17. Nov.23, 2:54, S. Iran, 28 / 55
====================
Result:
mb 5.0
Region SOUTHEASTERN IRAN
Date time 2021-11-23 21:46:26.7 UTC
Location 28.18 N ; 59.38 E
=====================
Location: error 400 km.-predicted
Date: predicted
M5.0>>>M4.5+-predicted
Time: error 12:52-predicted
================
All predicted, but M5.0<<< |
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Responses:
None |
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22234 |
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Date: November 21, 2021 at 00:15:09
From: Richter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: 1st Result: M5.9-Kermadec, near Tonga, wait... |
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Prediction:
12: Nov.21, 15:49, Tonga, -16 / -174 (expect powerful)
===========
1st Result:
Mw 5.9
Region KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
Date time 2021-11-21 05:12:28.6 UTC
Location 29.30 S ; 177.07 W
=========================
Location: near 1400 km.-near but wait
Date: predicted
M5.9>>>>M4.5+-predicted
I wrot: "expect powerful"-predicted
Time: error 10:37
but wait, wait:
near hit, now
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Responses:
None |
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22227 |
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Date: November 17, 2021 at 01:39:35
From: Richter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Result: Philippines, M4.7, error 4h. near hit... |
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Prediction: 11. Nov.16, 4:31(or 16:42), Philippines, 9
/ 126
Result:
M4.7, Celebes Sea, 3.7 / 124, 2021-11-16, 21:07
==============
Location: error 550 km.
Date: predicted
M4.7>>M4.5+-predicted
Time: error 4:25-predicted
Total: near hit, becouse M4.7<<<near hit
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Responses:
None |
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22209 |
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Date: November 01, 2021 at 23:57:44
From: Richter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: 1st Result: Fiji, M4.9, error 1h 25m-HIT |
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Result:
Nov.2, M4.9, 2:23, S. Fiji, -23 / 179
M4.9>>M4.5-predicted
Location: near 400 km-predicted
Date: predicted
Time: error 1h 25m-predicted-hit
================================
All predicted
then this is HIT
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Responses:
[22219] [22210] [22213] [22214] [22211] [22212] |
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22219 |
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Date: November 07, 2021 at 02:46:06
From: Richter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: 2nd Result: Philippines(Molucca Sea, M5.9),...near Hit |
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Result:
Nov.6, Molucca Sea, -0 / 124, 14:37, M5.9
=========================================
Philippines: 7 / 127
7:18 UTC
Location: error 750 km., M5.9 near M6.0 then predicted
Date: predicted
M5.9: near M6.0
Time: error 7:19-predicted
Total: near Hit
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Responses:
None |
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22210 |
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Date: November 02, 2021 at 06:04:55
From: rh5919899, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: 1st Result: Fiji, M4.9, error 1h 25m-HIT |
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Richter;
Aftershocks don't count.
Roger
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Responses:
[22213] [22214] [22211] [22212] |
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22213 |
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Date: November 02, 2021 at 23:03:57
From: Richter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: OK, Count this: M5.7, S. Fiji, error ... |
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1st Result:M5.7, Nov.3, 3:19, S. Fiji, -24 / -176
M5.7>>M4.5+-predicted
Location: error 300 km-predicted
Time: error 26h 21m-near predicted
Total: OK, not hit, but predicted
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Responses:
[22214] |
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22214 |
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Date: November 03, 2021 at 07:05:18
From: rh5919899, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: OK, Count this: M5.7, S. Fiji, error ... |
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Richter;
"not hit but predicted"?
That's a miss.
Roger
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Responses:
None |
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22211 |
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Date: November 02, 2021 at 08:18:35
From: Skywise, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: 1st Result: Fiji, M4.9, error 1h 25m-HIT |
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I don't think this was an aftershock. There isn't
anything big in the region recently.
However....
The area in question is rife with moderate and larger
earthquakes. It's extremely active
Since Jan 1, 1990 there have been 3,869 quakes of Mag 4.5
or larger within 500 km of the predicted location of
22 south 177 west (Richter's prediction parameters).
That's 3,869 quakes over the course of 11,628 days, for
an average recurrence interval of 3.0054 days.
His base window is only 2 days wide, so on that alone
he's got a 2 out of 3 chance of a random hit.
To put it in simple terms, guess two numbers from 1 to 3.
If you guess my number, you win!!! Pretty good odds, eh?
And, if you play the game enough you will win a few times
given those odds. So it means little that he got a hit.
Richter, think of betting on a horse race. If the odds
favor a particular horse, then picking the winner doesn't
pay much. But if you pick a horse that has little odds
of winning, then if you do get it right, the payoff is
much bigger.
So, getting a hit where a lot of quakes like this happen
all the time doesn't pay much. Sure, you got the hit, but
it's not worth anything.
Roger, maybe I should resurrect my Earthquake Dart Board?
Except I don't really have the time. Working too much and
what free computer time I have is dedicated to my Quake3D
program. I'm still working on it. Doing a rewrite from scratch
because I learned a lot while writing it and have come to
realize that I made some poor design choices in the beginning.
Brian
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Responses:
[22212] |
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22212 |
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Date: November 02, 2021 at 08:32:32
From: rh5919899, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: 1st Result: Fiji, M4.9, error 1h 25m-HIT |
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Brian;
I stand corrected. Maybe foreshock would have been better, maybe not.
Either way, small high probability quakes just don't count for much as predictions.
Roger
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Responses:
None |
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Roll & Rock ] [ Main Menu ] |