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22188 |
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Date: October 21, 2021 at 15:51:15
From: blindhog 6th sense, [DNS_Address]
Subject: I Wonder What's Going on under Greece? A Lot of Quakes There(NT) |
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Responses:
[22190] [22194] [22195] [22191] [22192] [22193] |
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22190 |
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Date: October 21, 2021 at 23:34:36
From: Richter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Forecast: S. Greece or W. Turkey... |
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Forecast:
1. W. Turkey or S. Greece, Crete-probability
2. today October 22, 2021
3. from now 6:33 to 22:59 UTC, +-6h
the method of forecast other.
Let us watch.
But where is Shanmugasundaram-Shan?
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Responses:
[22194] [22195] [22191] [22192] [22193] |
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22194 |
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Date: October 22, 2021 at 19:55:51
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Forecast: S. Greece or W. Turkey... |
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Posted by EQF on October 22, 2021
If I remember correctly, one problem is that his forecasting method relies on observances of the sun shadow as it moves across a wall in his residence.
The area where he lives was getting developed. Buildings were often blocking his view of the sun.
With a second problem, I believe that Shan has a degree in one of the physical sciences. Scientists generally do not like to get into battles regarding their theories, data, and work.
If I remember correctly, Shan decided that there was too much negativity here. So he stopped posting notes.
My own opinion regarding his earthquake forecasting method is that if it does indeed work, it could be highly valuable to people living in areas where expensive earthquake forecasting sensors are not available.
Additionally, based on data from another forecasting method that I believe is similar to his and that produces earthquake precursor data that I believe are often accurate, Shan's method might be valid.
However, as I keep insisting to other earthquake forecasters, the way that things are at the moment, you have to present your data to people in such a manner that they can understand it and also check on its accuracy and reliability.
Also, it helps if there is a detailed explanation somewhere regarding exactly how your forecasting method works. Shan does not have one on his Web site that provides that information to visitors to his site.
His data are somewhat understandable. But it is probably difficult or impossible to easily tell if they are accurate based on the data that are available on his Web site.
These are personal opinions.
Regards to all,
EQF
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Responses:
[22195] |
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22195 |
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Date: October 23, 2021 at 00:44:43
From: Richter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Thank you EQF |
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Responses:
None |
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22191 |
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Date: October 22, 2021 at 03:47:02
From: Richter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: 1st Result: Crete, M4.4 |
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1st Result:
Magnitude ML 4.4
Region CRETE, GREECE
Date time 2021-10-22 10:11:30.8 UTC
Location 35.14 N ; 25.23 E
=================================
In yhe forecast I not wrot magnitude:
But below in forum I wrot: M4.5+
Here M4.4<=M4.5
I expect again earthquake, wait
================================
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Responses:
[22192] [22193] |
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22192 |
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Date: October 22, 2021 at 05:49:35
From: Richter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: 1st Result: Crete, change M4.5 |
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Change in M4.5
and this is small hit
wooow
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Responses:
[22193] |
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22193 |
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Date: October 22, 2021 at 07:44:32
From: rh5919899, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: 1st Result: Crete, change M4.5 |
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richter;
Yeah and the sun came up today too, right on schedule.
I don't know what became of Shan. Maybe he finally realized it was all nonsense and gave up.
Roger
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Responses:
None |
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