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22116 |
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Date: September 20, 2021 at 05:58:46
From: Richter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Check for Hit:S. Sandwich, below in forum |
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Prediction:
1. South Sandwich Islands region,- 56 / -27,
R=800 km.
(If M6.0+ then R=1200 km.)
2. September 20, 2021
3. 15:02 UTC, +-24h, (If M6.0+ then +-72h)
4. Magn.: M5.6+
5. Prob. P>88%
=======================
Result:
mb 4.8
Region SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
Date time 2021-09-19 21:58:59.0 UTC
Location 58.72 S ; 23.75 W
=====================================
Location-predicted
Date, Time: error 17h 04m-predicted
Magn.: small
Total: near Hit
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Responses:
[22165] [22166] [22167] [22170] [22172] [22171] [22123] [22146] [22154] [22155] [22147] [22148] [22149] [22150] [22151] [22152] [22153] [22157] [22158] [22159] [22161] |
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22165 |
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Date: October 10, 2021 at 19:20:55
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Questions - October 10, 2021 |
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Posted by EQF on October 10, 2021
Hi Richter,
QUESTIONS
I saw your post for an earthquake in Pakistan. Below are your details.
Prediction:
1. Pakistan, 28 / 66, R=500 km., (If M6.0+ then R=800
km.)
2. Sept. 3, 2021
3. 14:33 UTC, +-24h, (If M6.0+ then +-72h)
4. Mag.: M4.6++
5. Prob.:P>88%
The following deadly earthquake did occur.
2021/10/06 22:01:08 30.22N 68.01E 9 5.9 "15 km NNE of Harnai, Pakistan"
That Pakistan earthquake was close enough to your forecast that I believe that it is worth trying to determine how you made the forecast.
There is this totally nonsensical and dangerous opinion within the international scientific community that all earthquake forecasts must be within certain Time Window, Longitude, and Magnitude ranges.
That belief might be acceptable is it is being applied to overall, theoretical earthquake forecasts. However, in the real world of earthquake forecasting, for a number of reasons, Time Window and Magnitude ranges are not realistic or even especially valuable.
The simplest reason for paying little attention to proposed magnitude numbers is the fact that they never include earthquake depth.
The depth is of vital importance to how seriously an earthquake prediction needs to be taken. The fact that many and even most scientists probably never even consider depth when they evaluate earthquake forecasting successes and failures shows just how little they actually know about the science of earthquake forecasting.
Even a relatively low magnitude earthquake near the surface and near a populated area can cause a tremendous amount of damage. In contrast, a fairly high magnitude earthquake that is at a great depth might not result in any problems. Its energy might be spread over a very wide area by the time it reaches the surface where it could cause problems.
Time Windows are also not being properly considered by many or most scientists. This is because earthquakes can easily move from one Time Window to another depending on a variety of factors including the occurrence of other earthquakes that can abruptly shift fault zone strain data TO or AWAY from the fault zone where the expected earthquake is going to occur.
As a result, an earthquake forecast can easily be off by multiples of perhaps one month.
So, your forecast for a Pakistan earthquake might have been fairly accurate after all. Your location numbers were off a bit. But unless you are actually living and working near the fault zone of interest it would not be unusual for the location to have some inaccuracies. Your forecast was not too far off in that regard.
QUESTIONS
Can you explain how your method works? It sounds like it has something to do with the location of the moon in the sky. Is that correct?
If that is correct then I believe that you will never be able to generate too many accurate forecasts because my data clearly show that for the majority of earthquakes that are affected by solar system bodies, the sun location in the sky is also important.
Additionally, and I will say this for the benefit of all earthquake forecasters,
Unless you have a good system such as a personal Web site that lets other people keep track of your forecasts so that they can be evaluated and acted on, you will likely never get anyone to listen to you.
My own forecasting Web site displays my earthquake precursor data going back to the start of 2001. People can easily evaluate my data. There are also lengthy discussions of how the precursor data need to be evaluated.
This is an indirect link for my Web site.
Index.html
These are personal opinions.
Regards to all,
EQF
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Responses:
[22166] [22167] [22170] [22172] [22171] |
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22166 |
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Date: October 11, 2021 at 01:41:36
From: Richter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Questions - October 10, 2021 |
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Hello,
about the method I use the seals and ebbs on the earth's
surface caused by the moon.
I have many predictions on Facebook with the name: Boyko
Iliev. The White House is following a lot of my
predictions. Donald Trump is evaluating my predictions.
My goal is when I make predictions to know the date, time
and place. The outlook for Pakistan is my failure. I know
that in the world scientists cannot know the exact date
and time, they make an interval of time and place. That
does not satisfy me. ...
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Responses:
[22167] [22170] [22172] [22171] |
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22167 |
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Date: October 12, 2021 at 14:58:30
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Questions - October 10, 2021 |
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Posted by EQF on Tuesday, October 12, 2021
You should not be of the opinion that I am saying anything bad about your forecasting method. At the moment I am mostly just trying to see what you are doing.
When I come across a forecasting method that someone else is using and I understand it and trust it I will often recommend that other people take a look at it.
That has been the case for years for one forecasting method running in the Europe / Asia area that I think should be used in every country.
The best approach at this point is probably to just ask you one question at a time.
Can I ask how you determine where peaks and troughs are in the Earth's crust?
I am guessing that this is what you are watching.
If that is not what you are watching, then could you explain things a little better?
I have a Solid Earth Tide computer program that I use myself for that information. It was written many years ago by a highly regarded physics expert. He passed away a while ago but his free computer program can still be found on the Internet.
For determining sun and moon locations in the sky I use a computer program that Roger and I developed years ago. Roger got the basic equations from an astronomy expert.
Finally, with humor intended, President Trump left office last January. But, it sounds like he often has a different opinion regarding that.
Again with humor intended, you might want to update the list of people whom you believe are following your forecasts!
Regards to all,
EQF
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Responses:
[22170] [22172] [22171] |
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22170 |
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Date: October 12, 2021 at 22:49:50
From: Richter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Questions - October 10, 2021 |
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I have been asked many times how I predict earthquakes. I
have always avoided answering this question. If you had
asked me about 10-20 years ago, I might have answered
you. But now I've sunk deep and I'm making predictions
almost like a machine. It's hard for me to go back in
time. But one day I will do that. Maybe, if my forecasts
are accepted as the best, only then ...
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Responses:
[22172] [22171] |
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22172 |
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Date: October 13, 2021 at 00:19:16
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Questions - October 10, 2021 |
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Posted by EQF on Wednesday, October 13, 2021
If I remember correctly, I did ask you about that 10 to 20 years ago when you were posting notes to Canie's Earthwaves forum.
Regards,
EQF
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Responses:
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22171 |
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Date: October 12, 2021 at 22:54:28
From: ryan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Questions - October 10, 2021 |
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they will be accepted as the best if they are accurate and save lives...make it so...
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Responses:
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22123 |
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Date: September 20, 2021 at 22:51:22
From: Richter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: 2nd result, Now is HIT: S. Sandwich, below in forum |
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2nd Result:
mb 5.4
Region SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
Date time 2021-09-20 19:07:43.8 UTC
Location 59.79 S ; 26.40 W
==================================
Location: predicted
Date: predicted
Time: error 4h 05m-predicted
Magn.: M5,4 near M5.6-predicted
All predicted
Total: This is HIT
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Responses:
[22146] [22154] [22155] [22147] [22148] [22149] [22150] [22151] [22152] [22153] [22157] [22158] [22159] [22161] |
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22146 |
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Date: September 29, 2021 at 13:15:42
From: Skywise, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Aftershocks don't count |
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These quakes are aftershocks to the 7.5/8.1 pair of
quakes occurring less than 3 minutes apart on August
12, 2021.
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000f4ly/executive
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000f53e/executive
You should avoid predictions in aftershock zones.
Aftershocks are expected. There have been 33
aftershocks mag 5.6 or greater so far. It's like
predicting the sun will rise tomorrow.
Besides, they're both misses anyway. Claiming a 5.4 is
a hit on a 5.6+ prediction is cheating.
Close enough doesn't count. Given that the magnitude
scale is logarithmic, a .2 difference is about a
factor of two. So a 5.6 is twice as big as a 5.4 in
terms of energy.
Brian
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Responses:
[22154] [22155] [22147] [22148] [22149] [22150] [22151] [22152] [22153] [22157] [22158] [22159] [22161] |
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22154 |
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Date: October 01, 2021 at 03:55:04
From: Richter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: In Conclusion: My Method CAN predict ... |
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In Conclusion:
My Method CAN predict Earthquakes and Aftershocks.
.....
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Responses:
[22155] |
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22155 |
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Date: October 01, 2021 at 08:57:06
From: rh5919899, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: In Conclusion: My Method CAN predict ... |
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The problem here is that I deal with large quakes because they are the ones which cause all the damage.
I will grant that small shocks may be affected as the article explains but who cares?
Roger
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Responses:
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22147 |
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Date: September 30, 2021 at 07:51:39
From: Richter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Then I CAN predict Aftershocs... |
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But Aftershoc is earthquake again.
The reason of Aftershocs and earthquakes is the moon.
The moon makes the Tides raising up Ocean and the Earth
crust. and e.t.c...
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Responses:
[22148] [22149] [22150] [22151] [22152] [22153] [22157] [22158] [22159] [22161] |
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22148 |
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Date: September 30, 2021 at 11:41:09
From: rh5919899, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Then I CAN predict Aftershocs... |
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Richter;
Wrong.
Moon has nothing to do with quakes.
Aftershocks follow major quakes, releasing further energy and are inevitable so no prediction is needed.
Roger
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Responses:
[22149] [22150] [22151] [22152] [22153] [22157] [22158] [22159] [22161] |
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22149 |
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Date: September 30, 2021 at 12:10:42
From: ryan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Then I CAN predict Aftershocs... |
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"Moon has nothing to do with quakes. "
i would say it hasn't been proven...
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Responses:
[22150] [22151] [22152] [22153] [22157] [22158] [22159] [22161] |
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22150 |
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Date: September 30, 2021 at 14:23:47
From: rh5919899, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Then I CAN predict Aftershocs... |
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Ryan;
I lean toward disproven as it always comes up negative in the tests I've run.
Roger
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Responses:
[22151] [22152] [22153] [22157] [22158] [22159] [22161] |
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22151 |
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Date: September 30, 2021 at 18:21:11
From: ryan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Then I CAN predict Aftershocs... |
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that is not conclusive and you know it...
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Responses:
[22152] [22153] [22157] [22158] [22159] [22161] |
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22152 |
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Date: September 30, 2021 at 21:07:33
From: rh5919899, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Then I CAN predict Aftershocs... |
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Ryan;
No, it's not conclusive but it's hard evidence and there's NOTHING supporting the moon theory.
Roger
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Responses:
[22153] [22157] [22158] [22159] [22161] |
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22153 |
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Date: September 30, 2021 at 23:05:49
From: ryan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Then I CAN predict Aftershocs... |
URL: https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/can-position-moon-or-planets-affect-seismicity-are-there-more-earthquakes-morningin-eveningat-a?qt-news_science_products=0#qt-news_science_products |
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USGS does allow that lunar tides can be a factor...and my own opinion is they are quite ignorant as to the effects of the moon and planets on earthly phenomenon...just my opinion, ntohing to back it up that you would consider "reliable"...lol
......................
Can the position of the moon or the planets affect seismicity? Are there more earthquakes in the morning/in the evening/at a certain time of the month?
Earthquakes are equally as likely to occur in the morning or the evening. Many studies in the past have shown no significant correlations between the rate of earthquake occurrence and the semi-diurnal tides when using large earthquake catalogs.
Several recent studies, however, have found a correlation between earth tides (caused by the position of the moon relative to the earth) and some types of earthquakes. One study, for example, concludes that during times of higher earth and ocean tides, such as during times of full or new moon, earthquakes are more likely on shallow thrust faults near the edges of continents and in (underwater) subduction zones. Lunar or solar eclipses represent, of course, special cases of full and new moon, but do not cause any special or different tidal effects from full and new moon.
Earth tides (Earth's surface going up and down by a couple of centimeters) and especially ocean tides (surface of the ocean going up and down by a meter or more) raise and lower the confining pressure on shallow, dipping faults near continental edges and in subduction zones.
When the confining pressure is lessened, the faults are unclamped and more likely to slip. The increased probability is a factor of ~3 during high tides. But you must stop and realize that the background probability is, in general, very low in a given place and year (fractions of a percent), so that raising this tiny probability by a factor of 3 during high tides still results in a very tiny probability.
There have also been some small but significant correlations reported between the semi-diurnal tides and the rate of occurrence of aftershocks in some volcanic regions, such as Mammoth Lakes.
The moon, sun, and other planets have an influence on the earth in the form of perturbations (small changes) to the gravitational field. The relative amount of influence is proportional to the objects mass, and inversely proportional to the third power of its distance from the earth.
The stresses induced in the earth by an extraterrestrial mass are proportional to the gravitational field gradient dg( r ) / dr and NOT to the gravitational field g( r ). g( r ) = GMm / r^2 thus: dg( r ) / dr = -2 * g( r ) / r = -2GMm / r^3
(From UC Berkeley with contributions from Gary Fuis)
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Responses:
[22157] [22158] [22159] [22161] |
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22157 |
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Date: October 01, 2021 at 13:39:19
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Then I CAN predict Aftershocs... |
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Posted by EQF on October 1, 2021
Just to add to the discussion,
Once again, I believe that my data clearly show that the sun and moon gravities can affect the times when many of our powerful earthquakes occur.
One of the problems is that other researchers are apparently using the wrong calculations when they attempt to study those relationships. As a result they are not easy for them to see.
My earthquake forecasting computer program, copyrighted years ago, provides a good picture of the nature of those relationships.
However, my present theory is that although the sun and moon gravity numbers that my computer program is generating work quite well, what is actually triggering the earthquakes is just a little different than what is being measured by my computer program.
I have a different computer program written years ago by a highly regarded physicist that can probably provide more accurate numbers. But it would take tremendous amount of time and energy to do the research needed to use it.
My research in this area is I expect decades ahead of anything anyone else on the planet is doing. Other scientists will eventually conclude that my theories and data are correct. One scientist already published a technical paper that I believe was based on effects that I had discovered and my data.
These are personal opinions.
Regards to all,
EQF
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Responses:
[22158] [22159] [22161] |
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22158 |
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Date: October 01, 2021 at 17:46:46
From: rh5919899, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Then I CAN predict Aftershocs... |
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EQF;
That post contains practically no information, just a lot of claims.
Roger
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Responses:
[22159] [22161] |
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22159 |
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Date: October 02, 2021 at 09:20:46
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Then I CAN predict Aftershocs... |
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Posted by EQF on October 2, 2021
Hi Roger,
All of that sun and moon gravity information can be found on my Web site. You should try reading those files some time before you claim that you are an expert on the subject matter.
Would you go to a doctor who finished medical school and then stated that he or she would never read another medical report?
That is basically what you are doing.
Again, the emphasis is on getting governments etc. to start moving in the right direction regarding earthquake forecasting. So, it isn't worth arguing with you about this.
For people who are actually interested in this subject matter, my theories and data are accurate. Also, it is usually the combined sun and moon gravity related forces, not just the moon gravity.
These are personal opinions.
Regards to all,
EQF
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Responses:
[22161] |
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22161 |
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Date: October 02, 2021 at 13:43:53
From: rh5919899, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Then I CAN predict Aftershocs... |
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EQF;
Your website goes into great detail on how someone can use your method to predict earthquakes.
What is missing is information on how accurate predictions made in this way can be expected to be.
Given the size and complexity of your website I may have missed it. If so, please tell me where to find it.
Roger
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Responses:
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