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22091
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING UPDATE - Sept. 12, 2021
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Earthquake Forecasting Update Posted by EQF on September 12, 2021 No notes have been posted by me to this forum for quite a few months for reasons that will be discussed in this present note. The following is an indirect address for my earthquake forecasting Web site. Index.html Another way to find the Web site is to use any search engine and type in the following line. earthquake research index.html data.html My Web site should be near the top of the search engine list. If it is not, then try another search engine. On my Web site there is a Comments And News Web page that provides occasional updates regarding the earthquake forecasting work that I myself am doing. The latest forecasting data available on my Web site can be found on the Data.html Web page. Those data are NOT actual earthquake predictions. The EM Signals being detected and reported on are what are believed to be earthquake precursors that involve electromagnetic signals that are associated with earthquake fault zone activities, with approaching volcano eruptions, and with some solar and geomagnetic storms. When those forecasting data look like they could be pointing to some location, people living in that area and earthquake forecasters around the world should attempt to see if there are other observable earthquake precursor in the suspect area. My data indicate to me that other precursors can be detected in the suspect area around the same times as when high intensity EM Signals I am working with are detected. If there are no observable precursors that can be detected in the suspect area then the approaching earthquake will likely occur somewhere else. Typical local earthquake precursors could include glowing lights on the horizon, abrupt changes in well water levels, earthquake clouds, noise on television and radio signals, unusual behavior by wild, farm, and zoo animals, by pet cats and dogs, and reports of people experiencing unusual and/or intense headaches, vertigo, nausea, pain in their arms and legs, and other medical problems. On the Earthquake Forecasting Breakthroughs Web page on my forecasting Web site there is an account of an astonishing incident where an earthquake sensitive Haiti resident was able survive the incredibly devastating January 12, 2001 Haiti earthquake because he often gets extremely ill when an earthquake is approaching. When the 2001 earthquake occurred he was at home, resting, instead of being in the building where he would normally have been at that time. That building was largely destroyed by the earthquake. Someone whom he would normally have been working with at that time perished when the building collapsed. RECENT ACTIVITIES 1. My earthquake forecasting Web site and earthquake forecasting computer programs etc. have been undergoing major updates. Those updates are now largely completed. 2. There have been so many significant earthquakes lately that as fast as my updated earthquake forecasting computer program now runs, it has been almost impossible to keep up with all of earthquakes. There was a recent powerful one in Alaska plus two deadly ones in Haiti and Mexico. The one in Haiti reportedly claimed more than 2000 lives. In a future note I am planning to present and discuss some extraordinary data that my earthquake forecasting computer program generated related to the following fairly recent and powerful Japan area earthquake. 2021/02/13 14:07:50 37.75N 141.75E 50 7.1 "72 km ENE of Namie, Japan" No other earthquake researcher on the planet can presently generate data like the those in spite of the facts that the basic computer program code associated my forecasting program was formally copyrighted here in the U.S. perhaps some 15 years ago if I remember correctly. The computer code have been available for free use by earthquake researchers around the world for that long. Roger who posts notes here assisted with developing the sun and moon location computer code that my forecasting program relies on. It took us something like six months to create just the sun and moon location computer code. The data that they generate are in excellent agreement with the U.S. government’s MICA program. 3. As a disaster mitigation professional I have been spending a fair amount of time watching the efforts that governments and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) such as the United Nations have been making with developing plans for dealing with Covid-19. Last year I sent several reports to one organization outlining steps that their personnel might take to improve international efforts to deal with the virus. They reportedly considered that information but as far as I can tell, never acted on the main recommendations. So far I have not had time to update those recommendations and send the updates to those people. As a disaster mitigation professional it has been amazing to me to see how many problems governments and NGOs have encountered during the past few years with effectively managing Covid-19. Over the years, governments etc. have spent considerable amounts of time and money learning how to deal with pandemics and viruses such as Ebola and Covid-19 that have been responsible for the pandemics. One of the conclusions that I arrived at by watching the often ineffective government efforts etc. regarding dealing with Covid-19 is that if they are having so much trouble with dealing with this relatively new virus in spite of all of their past work with managing pandemics, then that could partially explain why they have been making so little progress with dealing with other problems such as with generating effective earthquake forecasts. These are person opinions. Regards to all, EQF |
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22092
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING UPDATE - Sept. 12, 2021
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The previous post should have said towards the end, These are personal opinions. |
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22097
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Recent Haiti, Mexico, Alaska, and Japan earthquakes Sept. 13, 2021
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RECENT EARTHQUAKES IN MEXICO, HAITI, ALASKA, AND JAPAN Posted by EQF on September 13, 2021 The following powerful earthquakes are being discussed briefly or in detail in this posting. 2021/09/08 01:47:47 16.98N 99.77W 20 7.0 "Acapulco, Mexico" 2021/08/14 12:29:08 18.41N 73.48W 10 7.2 "Nippes, Haiti" 2021/07/29 06:15:47 55.32N 157.84W 32 8.2 "104 km SE of Perryville, Alaska" 2021/02/13 14:07:50 37.75N 141.75E 50 7.1 "72 km ENE of Namie, Japan" NEIS Data MEXICO AND HAITI EARTHQUAKES 2021/09/08 01:47:47 16.98N 99.77W 20 7.0 "Acapulco, Mexico" 2021/08/14 12:29:08 18.41N 73.48W 10 7.2 "Nippes, Haiti" It would take to long to go into much detail here regarding those two earthquakes even though both were important. I will just add that both reportedly resulted in fatalities. There was one fatality associated with the Mexico earthquake and more than 2000 associated with the one in Haiti. My data analyses indicate to me that the approach of both of those earthquakes could probably have been detected if earthquake researchers around the world were using my freely available forecasting data. They might have been able to determine that other types of earthquake precursors were being detected in the suspect areas at the same times that the high intensity EM Signals that I work with were being detected. Alarms could then have been sounded regarding the approach of both earthquakes. Quite a few lives might have been saved. The Chart Viewers Web page on my forecasting Web site provides people with some easily downloaded and used HTML Web pages that can help them with evaluating my forecasting data. I use those Web pages myself when I am examining those data. Those HTML Web page code would likely be regarded as being fairly primitive by experienced computer programmers. But, they were specifically designed so that they could be understood and modified by people who have virtually NO programming experience. They can be very easily customized so that they will display charts that are just the right size for any computer monitor. I was hoping to get Roger to develop a TrueBasic computer program that would do that customization for people. But, no luck with that to date. JAPAN EARTHQUAKE 2021/02/13 14:07:50 37.75N 141.75E 50 7.1 "72 km ENE of Namie, Japan" That earthquake is being discussed here in more detail partly because my forecasting chart data associated with it are so impressive. I recommend that forum visitors who know anyone who is involved with or who is interested in earthquake forecasting, tell them about the data on the chart below. Those data are in my opinion absolutely astonishing!
The following is some explanation information for the earthquake related line shapes on the above chart. The X axis on the above chart is longitude. The filled color circles show the longitude where the listed earthquake occurred. The size and color of the circles are related to the earthquake’s magnitude. When there is a red triangle in the center of one of those circles it means that the earthquake resulted in fatalities. Obviously, that red triangle cannot be seen with the line associated with that extremely powerful Japan area earthquake. Where there is a line peak at some longitude on a line it means that my forecasting computer program determined that the earthquake’s triggering characteristics were generally similar to the triggering characteristics associated with other earthquakes that occurred in the past at the longitude of the line peak. In making that determination, my forecasting computer program uses data from more than 100,000 five and higher magnitude earthquakes that occurred since the start of 1973. Data for earthquakes further back in time than 1973 could be generated if I were willing to devote part of a week to expanding the ocean tide and Solid Earth Tide files that my program uses when it does the calculations. It takes my program about 20 seconds to do the calculations for a new earthquake or EM Signal. The program uses very slow Perl language code to do the calculations. The plan is to eventually convert those calculations to much faster Python language code. Data for each earthquake and EM Signal are then stored in individual files that are presently about 5000 kb in size. When needed, those data are reread by the forecasting computer program. It takes about 0.25 seconds to reread a given file versus the 20 seconds that would be needed to create a new file. The line peaks on Line # 2 on the above chart showed that the incredibly powerful and devastating March 11, 2011 Japan area earthquake (25,000 reported fatalities) that occurred at 142 E longitude had triggering characteristics that were similar to past earthquakes that occurred at that longitude. The Significant Earthquake charts displayed on my Web site indicates how often that type of similarity can be observed with something like 800 past powerful earthquakes. Most of them resulted in fatalities. I haven’t attempted to determine how often that similarity is actually observed. It does happen quite often. If that were not the case my forecasting computer program would not work. Before my latest Web site update, Significant Earthquakes charts were available only for earthquakes that were sorted by Date Of Occurrence and by the Longitude of the Earthquake. With the latest update, charts now available also display those earthquakes sorted by Magnitude and by the reported Number Of Fatalities associated with each earthquake. My Significant Earthquakes Web page shows exactly how many fatalities were associated with each of those earthquakes including ones that resulted in just a single fatality. As far as I am aware, it is the only resource on the Internet that contains that type of detail regarding fatal earthquakes. That Web page is presently in need of an update. Data regarding the most recent fatal earthquakes need to be added. That update might be done some time this week. In contrast with Line # 2 on the above chart, the line peaks for the Japan area earthquakes associated with Lines 3 and 4 looked more like earthquakes that occurred in the past at around 165 E. The following is what is so remarkable about the data on that chart. When the February 13, 2021 earthquake occurred, every report on the subject that I read proposed that the earthquake was likely an aftershock for that extremely powerful March 11, 2011 Japan area earthquake that had occurred 10 years earlier in time. 2011/03/11 05:46:24 38.30N 142.37E 29 9.1 "near the east coast of Honshu, Japan" However, the extremely good line peak shape similarities on my chart for Lines 3 and 4 show that the February 13, 2021 Japan earthquake could probably be more accurately described as an aftershock for the following powerful March 9, 2011 Japan area earthquake. 2011/03/09 02:45:20 38.44N 142.84E 32 7.3 "near the east coast of Honshu, Japan" It occurred just a relatively short time before the highly destructive one. It is absolutely astonishing that my computer program could determine that this was the case for earthquakes that occurred around the same location, but 10 years apart in time! Earthquake researchers in Japan should be amazed by that information. As far as I am aware, even with all of their resources, none of them can generate data anything like those chart data. It was not a coincidence that my forecasting computer program generated those Japan earthquake data. My Web site pages display data for numerous earthquakes and their aftershocks where those earthquake triggering similarities were observed. My earthquake forecasting computer program is based on effects that I believe clearly demonstrate that many powerful earthquakes are being triggered by and many EM Signals are being generated by forces related to interactions between the sun's and moon's gravities and the crust of the Earth. Those computer code have never been optimized. That would be easy to do and would likely move the science of earthquake forecasting and earthquake science in general forward at an accelerated pace. There are probably at least two dozen forecasting procedures already developed that can provide valuable information regarding possible approaching earthquakes. Although probably none of them is totally accurate and reliable, if the precursor data that they were generating were combined, we could generate some fairly good earthquake forecasts. The BEST forecasting method that I have seen to date was developed years ago by a group in the Europe / Asia area. Their technology relies on detecting slight amounts of ground deformation that are associated with approaching earthquakes. Their fault zone strain data collected more than a thousand miles away from where I live and work are in amazingly good agreement with my electromagnetic signal data. Unfortunately, the people who developed that technology are geologists, not disaster management professionals. When they were unable to get the funding they needed to install their equipment at additional locations including ones that I found for them here in the U.S. and Chile, they apparently largely abandoned efforts to get their technology installed anywhere even though I offered to help them get some funding. Experienced disaster management professionals would have instead said: "This particular type of forecasting technology is critically important to earthquake forecasting efforts. We will keep pressuring governments and nongovernmental organizations to generate the funding needed to provide governments around the world with this technology." If you are a government official and you have a disaster on your hands or something that might become a disaster in the near future such as an approaching earthquake, you need to bring in COMPETENT, experienced disaster management professionals to deal with the problem. If you instead ask scientists and other technical people to deal with the approaching disaster you will likely not get much accomplished. If you live near an earthquake fault zone (I don't) and you are wondering why your government can't predict approaching earthquakes for you so that you can get out of the way, then THAT appears to me to be the main problem. They are asking scientists to solve a problem that actually needs to be addressed by competent disaster management professionals. When it became known that Covid-19 could lead to a global pandemic, if governments had called in competent disaster management professionals then those people would have said the following. “We can expect that a vaccine will eventually be developed that can diminish the effects of the virus. But instead of waiting until such a vaccine is developed we should get vaccine distribution procedures developed and also determine WHO will get the first vaccine doses.” That didn’t happen as far as I am aware. Governments apparently expected medical professionals to do that for them. As a result, invaluable response time was lost when the vaccines DID eventually become available. Many lives might have been unnecessarily lost as the result of those delays. We are seeing the same thing happen with earthquake forecasting. Competent disaster management professionals would be saying the following. “We can expect that reasonably reliable earthquake forecasting technologies will eventually be developed. Instead of waiting until then we should be getting procedures developed for quickly warning the general public that a destructive earthquake might be approaching for the area where they live or work. Effective procedures should also be developed for rapidly getting large numbers of people away from the danger areas.” Those things are not being done except perhaps in the Mainland China to a certain extent. Some of my own forecasting data were presented years ago to earthquake researchers in that country at a disaster management conference. Most governments are apparently expecting their scientists and technical people to do all of that earthquake forecasting preparation work for them. That hasn’t happened and it isn’t going to happen! I am personally happy that I don’t live near any active earthquake fault zones. ALASKA EARTHQUAKE I originally thought that the approaching deadly Haiti was responsible for many of the earthquake precursor EM Signals that I had been detecting for months. But further analyses indicate to me that most of the signals that were being detected were likely linked with the following powerful approaching Alaska earthquake. 2021/07/29 06:15:47 55.32N 157.84W 32 8.2 "104 km SE of Perryville, Alaska"
The above chart displays averaged EM Signal line peaks. The integration time for each line is the 3 month period of time before the date associated with the line. That long integration time smoothes out the dramatic fluctuation that are observed between individual successive EM Signals. Those line peaks are clear matches with the line shape associated with the powerful July 22, 2020 Alaska earthquake that occurred near where the July 29, 2021 earthquake eventually occurred. 2020/07/22 06:12:44 55.03N 158.52W 28 7.8 "105 km SSE of Perryville, Alaska" I don’t have time to predict everyone’s earthquakes for them. It requires all of my available free time just to generate my forecasting data. Had earthquake forecasters and researchers used my freely available data to spot those similarities then they might have been able to also tell that there were other earthquake precursors that were pointing to the approach of that July 22, 2021 earthquake. It did not result in any fatalities. But with an 8.1 magnitude, had it occurred near a populated area the results would likely have been devastating. It is my expectation that some time in the next year, the approach that I am presently using to get government and NGO officials to stop insisting that “Earthquakes Can’t Be Predicted” should have some positive results for at least one government and likely the United Nations. I have not discussed the details of that approach in this forum for a number of reasons including the fact that Earthquake Forecasting Deniers might attempt to find ways to stop the effort. In the mean time, if you want to listen to people who keep insisting that “Covid-19 is not a real threat to the human race” or if you live near an earthquake fault zone and you continue to listen to people who insist that: “Earthquakes can’t be predicted. Earthquakes can’t be predicted. Earthquakes can’t be predicted.” Then, good luck to YOU! I expect that you might need it. These are personal opinions. Regards to all, EQF |
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22100
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Significant Earthquakes - Sept. 16, 2021
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Posted by EQF on September 16, 2021 The four charts below this one display data related to Significant Earthquakes. Those are earthquakes that occurred since the start of 1973 that produced at least 1 fatality plus 8 and higher magnitude ones even if they were not fatal, and some lower magnitude ones that have been included for research reasons. In the charts, the earthquakes are sorted by Date, by Longitude, by Magnitude, or by the reported Number of Fatalities associated with the earthquake. The X axis on each chart is longitude. The longitude of a line peak on a given earthquake line indicates that the computer program used to generate the charts determined that the earthquake associated with the line had earthquake triggering characteristics that were similar to earthquakes that occurred in the past at the longitude of the line peak. In theory, there should be a line peak at the same longitude as the earthquake itself. However, as can easily be seen, that happens only some of the time. There are a number of reasons that the main line peak and the earthquake longitude are at the same location some of the time. The main reason is likely that the earthquake was triggered by sun and moon gravity types of forces on the Earth's crust that were different than most of the other 5 and higher magnitude earthquakes that occurred at the earthquake's longitude. The sorted by Magnitude chart is probably the easiest one to examine to see how well the earthquake longitude and main line peak longitude agreed with one another. No calculations have been done on this to date. But I expect that the agreement between those longitudes is likely much better than mere chance would allow. For people who are not familiar with how the Internet works, According to my understanding, this present Web page and forum are not doing all of the work with displaying those lengthy charts. This Web page just provides your computer with the location of the chart. Your own Internet Service Provider (ISP), my own Web site ISP, and your PC are doing most of the work. These are personal opinions. Regards to all, EQF |
22104
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Significant Earthquakes - Magnitude Sort - Sept. 16, 2021
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Posted by EQF on September 16, 2021 The chart below displays Significant Earthquakes that were sorted by Magnitude with the highest magnitude ones at the top of the chart. This chart is probably the easiest one to study in order to determine if my computer program determined that a given Significant Earthquakes was triggered by the same son and moon related gravity forces as other earthquakes that occurred at the longitude of the earthquake.
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22103
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Significant Earthquakes - Sept. 16, 2021
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Posted by EQF on September 16, 2021 The chart below displays Significant Earthquakes sorted by date. The most recent ones are at the top of the chart.
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22102
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Significant Earthquakes- Longitude Sort - Sept. 16, 2021
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Posted by EQF on September 16, 2021 The chart below displays Significant Earthquakes that were sorted by Longitude with the farthest east earthquakes at the top of the chart. A few west longitude earthquakes are actually at the top ones on the chart. They were added for display continuity.
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22101
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Significant Earthquakes - Fatalities Sort - Sept. 16, 2021
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Posted by EQF on September 16, 2021 The chart below displays Significant Earthquakes sorted by the reported number of fatalities that were associated with the earthquake. The Significant Earthquakes Web page on my earthquake forecasting Web site provides the actual number of fatalities associated with each of the earthquakes.
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22098
From: rh5919899, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Recent Haiti, Mexico, Alaska, and Japan earthquakes Sept. 13, 2021
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EQF; If everyone would systematically look for the precursory phenomena you specify in their area no forecast would be necessary. Roger |
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22099
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Recent Haiti, Mexico, Alaska, and Japan earthquakes Sept. 13, 2021
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Posted by EQF on September 16, 2021 Hi Roger, As I have stated repeatedly, the main problem with earthquake forecasting appears to be shared with other problems such as organized international efforts to get Covid-19 under control. There is no one in charge. No one is attempting to get anything organized. I am with earthquake forecasting. But one person can accomplish only so much. I talk with other forecasters around the world. They and their governments seem to have no sense of direction. At the present time it doesn't look like that situation is going to change. Local forecasting observations or organized government efforts, someone or some group has to take charge. But there are no COMPETENT disaster managers anywhere that I know of who are taking any interest in earthquake forecasting efforts. Regards, EQF |
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22093
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Note for Roger - Sept. 13, 2021
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Note for Roger, Posted by EQF on September 13, 2021 Hi Roger, This note assumes that Covid-19 has not sent you off to your eternal reward (humor intended). Quite a while ago I posted a note that stated that I could help you develop a simple DOS procedure that should make TrueBasic a lot more powerful. Actually, the procedure would work with virtually any programming language. In the past I didn't have time to go into more detail. But now that the work on updating my forecasting Web site has been largely completed I do have some free time. So, if you would like to work on that TrueBasic - DOS procedure just let me know. The entire effort would likely require less than an hour of work. Once that procedure has been developed the details can be posted here. Other people might find the procedure to be helpful for their own programming efforts. Regards, EQF |
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22094
From: rh5919899, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note for Roger - Sept. 13, 2021
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Hi EQF; I've been wondering what happened to you. Your website hasn't been updated in ages. Yes, I would be interested in such a program. Roger |
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22095
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note for Roger - Sept. 13, 2021
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Posted by EQF on September 13, 2021 Glad to hear that the virus apparently gave you a free pass. More about that TrueBasic - DOS procedure, likely this coming week. EQF |
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22105
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note for Roger - Sept. 13, 2021
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Posted by EQF on September 16, 2021 Hi Roger, The power addition that I am talking about regarding TrueBasic and other programming languages involves the creation of a few Windows shortcut files and small DOS bat files. These files would enable TrueBasic or any other programming language to send commands to the Windows operating system. For example, the system could be told to open a folder for display the same as you get by clicking on a link. The system could be told to open a Web page using Firefox or some other browser etc. Perl and a number of other programming languages and even some versions of BASIC have system or shell commands that let you do that. But as far as I am aware, TrueBasic and some versions of FORTRAN do not. So, those link and bat files could be quite useful. As I said, this is actually really easy to do. However, it might have taken me a decade of trying this and that before I finally learned how to get the process to work. Let me know if you are still interested in trying this. I personally find that the ability to have a program send commands to the operating system to be extremely useful. Regards to all, EQF |
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22110
From: rh5919899, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note for Roger - Sept. 13, 2021
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EQF; What commands are you talking about that couldn't be part of a program? Roger |
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22106
From: rh5919899, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note for Roger - Sept. 13, 2021
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EQF; I haven't written a BAT file in years and don't think TB does it at all. I'll look into itand let you know. Roger |
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22107
From: rh5919899, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note for Roger - Sept. 13, 2021
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EQF; TB has changed to a new forum and I can't seem to find out how to use it in order to ask questions. I've scanned the book and found nothing on the subject. Any ideas on how to procede? Roger |
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22108
From: rh5919899, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note for Roger - Sept. 13, 2021
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EQF; I managed to post the question so we'll see what the answer is (maybe). Roger |
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22109
From: rh5919899, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note for Roger - Sept. 13, 2021
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EQF; I found that TB will execute external programs. Sounds like what you're looking for. Roger |
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22112
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note for Roger - Sept. 13, 2021
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Posted by EQF on September 17, 2021 This is all actually really simple. The BAT files would be only about 2 lines long. From what I remember about TrueBasic and certainly about some other programming languages, direct commands cannot be sent to the operating system. For example, as far as I can remember, TrueBasic can't tell the operating system to open a Notepad file. I will get to it when I have some free time, possibly this weekend, most likely by some time next week. Regards, EQF |
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22114
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note for Roger - Sept. 13, 2021
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Posted by EQF on September 20, 2021 This can get done by E-mail rather than fill the forum Web page with computer code notes. EQF |
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22117
From: mr bopp, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note for Roger - Sept. 13, 2021
| thanks! |
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22128
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note for Roger - Sept. 13, 2021
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Posted by EQF on September 21, 2021 Hi Mr. Bopp, What you are seeing discussed here is some of the most advanced earthquake forecasting work being done anywhere on the planet. It is fortunate that this forum exists so that the work can be discussed in "Real Time" rather than in publications that can take years to get written and circulated. If you someday want to create a new branch for your forum where other earthquake researchers from around the world can post notes about their latest research then just let me know. It would have to have some special rules in place. One would be that only scientists and other people doing actual research could post their notes there. Another rule would be that no one other than the person posting the note could respond to a note. If that rule did not exist then flame wars would eventually get started. I don't expect that you would want to go through the trouble of creating that new forum branch. But, it would be quite interesting if you did. You might eventually see notes posted regarding some of the most advanced forecasting and earthquake research being done in countries around the world. I have what I believe is an advanced version of the software that this forum uses for these posts. I also have a Web site where the program could run. But I don't have time to both do research and run a forum. Again, thanks for running the forum. If and when Roger and I get those programs settled that we have been discussing, the final results will likely be posted here. In the mean time, it makes no sense to clutter your forum with software discussions. These are personal opinions. Regards, EQF |
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22130
From: Skywise, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Oh for cripes sake!!!!
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Still trying to control the conversation, Ed? You've been trying to tell people what they can and cannot say, to whom, and what about regarding your posts for decades!!! And in all these decades you've accomplished what, exactly? You've been being called out on your vague forecasts or whatever obfuscating word salad you want to call it for decades by all sorts of people, including other predictors!!! I recall Petra and Don (both RIP) challenging you at least 15 years ago in sci.geo.earthquakes. Although I disagreed with some of their work, they were highly respected amongst many and even they questioned you. They even questioned your identity and credentials. (although I figured you out years ago) You are but a charlatan. Brian |
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22131
From: ryan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Oh for cripes sake!!!!
| i imagine that is the kind of feedback you want to stifle ed...lol... |
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22134
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Actual Scientists
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Posted by EQF on September 22, 2021 The people who are perhaps the worst to deal with in all of this are probably the actual scientists around the world who are attempting to forecast earthquakes. Like cats and dogs, they are constantly fighting with one another over who has the best forecasting method, or even who has one that actually works. The next ones the strange list are our world governments. People get upset when government scientists forecast an earthquake and the earthquake doesn't occur (happened quite often in the past). They complain to their government officials. The government officials then dump on the scientists who go off and hide in a corner so that they won't get fired. When they next appear in public, it is, Earthquakes can't be predicted. Earthquakes can't be predicted. Earthquakes can't be predicted." Translation: We don't want to get fired so we will tell people whatever our government bosses tell us to say. We like getting paid! Well, if the scientists had first taken a course in public speaking before they circulated inaccurate forecasts that unnecessarily frightened everyone they wouldn't have just blurted out the warnings and gotten themselves into trouble. Somehow many people in the scientific community have never seemed to learn that. This is a real problem in the international scientific community with many scientific, technical, and medical matters including Covid-19, Global Warming, and Renewable Energy. I know a lot about Renewable Energy but am not an expert on Global Warming and can't express an expert opinion on it. But, I have a lot of respect for the many true experts on the subject who have stuck to their opinions in spite of at times even being fired by their government bosses for their saying what they believe. Government officials, especially U.S. officials trust me and often use my advice because I am fairly careful about what I say in public. My public statements are carefully prepared and don't cause problems for them. Just look at all of the not too friendly things I have been saying about the wisdom or lack of wisdom of some scientists and their government bosses in these posts. Do you see any U.S. officials censoring these posts? The only person who has an actual degree in a science area and who is complaining is Roger. But then, he used to work for the U.S. government. On the other hand, he has been quite helpful with developing computer code. So I largely just ignore his "Government Speak." His negative comments are actually somewhat helpful because they are constant and valuable reminders of how quite a few government scientists and technical people think. You can read up on the "Stockholm Syndrome" effect to learn more about why many government scientists often act in such a manner and say the things that they do. These are personal opinions. Regards, EQF |
22135
From: rh5919899, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Actual Scientists
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EQF; There's a certain amount of truth in what you say and I hope you understand that my comments are not meant to be personally offensive. But I stand by what I have said; you should be concentrating on demonstrating the truth of your method before anything else. I'm personally willing to help with programming as far as I'm able but that's as far as it goes. Roger |
22136
From: rh5919899, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Actual Scientists
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EQF; To my surprise, Win10 ran the bat file with no problem except that it ignored the final "get key z$" comand to wait for a keypress before clearing the screen. Roger |
22137
From: rh5919899, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Actual Scientists
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The main reason being that the command is "pause", not what I entered. Roger |
22138
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Actual Scientists
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Posted by EQF on September 23, 2021 We need to stay with E-mail on this. The final results can then be posted here. EQF |
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22139
From: rh5919899, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Actual Scientists
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EQF; Agreed. Roger |
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22132
From: Skywise, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Oh for cripes sake!!!!
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Apologies Ryan, if I've bent the rules a bit. Brian |
22133
From: ryan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Oh for cripes sake!!!!
| not at all brian...don't you think i've mellowed over the years? |
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From: Sunshine Superman, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Oh for cripes sake!!!!
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From smoking all those banana peels? They call you "Mellow Fellow"...(quite rightly!) You're just mad about saffron! |
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22129
From: mr bopp, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note for Roger - Sept. 13, 2021
| you and others can prety much do that right here...i moderate pretty fairly imho...a post could be flagged as "no reply"...although it seems you would want feedback from your peers... |
22140
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Moderated Forum Branch - Sept. 23, 2021
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Posted by EQF on September 23, 2021 Hi Mr. Bopp It is a little difficult to keep track of these posts. Regarding this special forum group matter, It would be really difficult to tell you just how complex this would be. We are talking about some of the top earthquake research scientists on the planet. I am including myself in that group. No one or any government can even begin to duplicate the type of information that I am posting here. There could be millions, billions, and even tens or hundreds of billion dollars worth of research that would be discussed. Nobel Prizes might even be decided by what was posted. Each of the researchers would need to be invited to post by me and have my personal approval. They would be given specific instructions for what they could and could not say. I would be telling them that I would be watching their posts. If they didn't conform to the rules they would no longer be able to post notes. In at least one country, even discussing this type of information in public can land you in jail. These top scientists can be so competitive that I could not host a forum at my own Web site because they would consider me to be part of "The Competition." A neutral site such as this forum would be okay. Roger would not be allowed to post notes in that group. Just one of his statements that "Earthquakes can't be predicted" would drive everyone away. As I said in an earlier post, I doubt that you would want to go through the trouble to create another group in this forum. But if you did it is likely that there would be some very interesting information posted. It might help move earthquake science forward a lot faster. Right now, there is nothing like this proposed group anywhere, at least not in public. These are personal opinions. Regards, EQF |
22143
From: mr bopp, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Moderated Forum Branch - Sept. 23, 2021
| not convinced yet about the eagerness of "top" scientists to participate in such a venture...the way you describe it, it sounds exclusively restrictive... |
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22141
From: rh5919899, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Moderated Forum Branch - Sept. 23, 2021
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EQF; I don't contend that quakes cannot be predicted. My position is that prediction will require equipment we do not currently have and methods which have not yet been devised. But I DO contend that individuals currently trying to predict quakes cannot succeed with the methods and concepts they are employing, such as planetary configurations or mysterious signals from unknown sources. Roger |
22142
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Moderated Forum Branch - Sept. 23, 2021
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Posted by EQF on September 23, 2021 Surprise, surprise! In spite of what so many learned scientists are saying, there actually is a reasonable chance that planetary alignments can and might affect earthquakes. The scientists are I believe correct that the gravity pull of any planet on the Earth's crust is so small that it likely can't affect anything. But, the actual mechanism that my latest theory proposes is dramatically different. That theory is not based on data showing that this occurs but rather on the physics of how our solar system works. I discovered what might be the key part of the puzzle when I was reading an obscure geology book written by someone who went off to his eternal reward years ago. I might tell you what the theory is in an E-mail but won't post it here because just by itself, it might be worth a publication. No one I have ever heard of has ever proposed what might be happening though some people have discussed a few parts of the theory. It is highly complex. These are personal opinions. Regards, EQF |
22144
From: rh5919899, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Moderated Forum Branch - Sept. 23, 2021
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EQF; Are you talking about something you haven't told me? Roger |
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22156
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Moderated Forum Branch - Sept. 23, 2021
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Posted by EQF on October 1, 2021 Hi Roger, This theory has not been discussed with anyone so far. It is highly complex. In any case, the emphasis is on getting governments and earthquake forecasters and researchers and even the general public organized so that we can effectively forecast earthquakes and get people out of their way. Other topics such as earthquakes and planetary alignments are not being given any attention. A new earthquake forecasting information Web page intended as an E-mail and surface mail letter for circulation to governments and earthquake researchers around the world is being prepared at the moment. It discusses a variety of topics including interactions between solar and geomagnetic storms and approaching earthquakes. There is a lot of research being done regarding the solar storms. What is strange is that the various groups doing the work don't appear to be aware that other groups are also working on this and publishing technical papers about it. Regards, EQF |
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From: rh5919899, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note for Roger - Sept. 13, 2021
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Just to clarify; do you want All posts between EQF and myself to stop, or just posts related to programming between us? Roger |
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22119
From: mr bopp, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note for Roger - Sept. 13, 2021
| no need to post code/programming discussions here (unless someone else is interested), other stuff i don't mind... |
22121
From: rh5919899, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note for Roger - Sept. 13, 2021
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Mr Bopp; I agree. You da boss! Roger |
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From: Skywise, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note for Roger - Sept. 13, 2021
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I'm interested, but participation is unlikely. I've already refrained multiple times from posting. I know Ed ignores me. But he's really going about things the hard way. Everything he's been wanting to do I could do in one program using C/C++. Probably could do the same with Python, maybe Ruby. Not sure as I don't use those languages. Heck, even XBASIC which I used for years before switching to C/C++ could do it in one go. He's spent years - how many man-hours? - trying to kludge together his algorithms. How much of that could have been spent learning to use the right tools and actually getting somewhere? I still kick myself sometimes for not switching to C/C++ sooner. My opinions that kept me from doing so long before were so wrong. But I don't like speaking up much any more. Mostly a waste of my time. People only want to hear validation, not learn and grow. Brian |
22122
From: rh5919899, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note for Roger - Sept. 13, 2021
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Skywise; Aw come on, I'm 86 years old, too old to be learning gibbersh languages. True Basic is hard enough for me. Roger |
22125
From: Skywise, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note for Roger - Sept. 13, 2021
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I totally understand, Roger. And you do this for fun, so unless you find learning a new computer language fun, you are by all means justified in being happy with what you do with TB. Ed, on the other hand, is attempting to accomplish a serious goal. As such, one needs to use the appropriate tool for the job. My opinion on the goal is irrelevant. I bring up these points because I am very interested in software engineering as a hobby. And, I feel I can offer some valid points on the topic. Although I am becoming proficient in C/C++, I do recognize it's not the solution for everything. It all depends on numerous factors. For example, the small microcontroller I sometimes dabble with, I've used three different languages to program it, including C. It all depends on the task. For what Ed is trying to accomplish, he really should consider taking the time to peruse the many languages available and begin learning one that will help him do the job he needs. Instead, it seems he's taking bits and pieces of code written in various languages and trying to force them to work together. It just seems like he could get more done if he chose one language that can do everything. Yes, that means rewriting a lot of the existing code from scratch in the new language. But that is also a very common thing to do in the serious business of software engineering. I've done it myself. I also know of major commercial software that was rewritten from scratch. If implemented properly this can improve the software tremendously, and lead to great success. But if not approached properly, it can fail, too. Whole books can be written on the topic. But it seems like Ed is just making things hard for himself, at least from my perspective. Although, maybe he's feeling too old to take on a new language though I'm not really sure of his age. There could be a myriad of reasons his unwilling to share why he must do what he does the way he does. I've even wondered more than once if he doesn't do any coding at all, but instead convinces others to make some small program for him in whatever language they know, and now that's what he's trying to kludge together. I don't know. But that's also a problem I see for him. He makes such a secret of everything it's a wonder he gets any help at all. How can anyone suggest good solutions for him if he won't provide enough details of what he's trying to do? Brian |
22126
From: rh5919899, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note for Roger - Sept. 13, 2021
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Brian; You raise some interesting points. I did some essential programs for him. Sun and moon positions because I had done them before on my own tests of others theories and plotting for the same reason. I don't think that his ideas have any merit but I'm amazed by the size of his website where the goal is to get other people to use his unproven ideas to predict quakes in their own areas. To me, this is backward. He should prove that his method works and then people would be lining up to BUY his program. I'd be willing to bet good money that his method does NOT work based on my own investigations of sun/moon positions and earthquakes. I don't intend to evaluate his method because it isn't well defined and is too much work to design the program it would take to evaluate it properly. I'm willing to write smaller programs for the exercise; keeps the brain cells from rotting too soon, very important at my age. Roger |
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22127
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note for Roger - Sept. 13, 2021
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Posted by EQF on September 21, 2021 For goodness sake Roger, How many times to I have to explain this? The data on my Web site are what are believed to be Earthquake Precursor signals, not actual earthquake forecasts. You can see the dates that individual signals were detected by looking at my EMS and EQ-EMS files. My computer program represents an effort to make sense of the individual data points that appear to be all over the place until you understand how they are being generated. One of the reasons for having the individual data points displayed there is because scientists working for one government apparently attempted to duplicate my forecasting program and probably spent a lot of money on the effort. Unfortunately, they were apparently basing their efforts on a "Working Theory" that I had circulated internationally back in 2014 regarding how the signals are being generated. As I evaluated more and more data I found that this first "Working Theory" did not explain certain effects I was observing and I formulated a second, new theory. With even more data evaluations I replaced that second theory with a third one that now appears to explain how the signals are being generated. Briefly, there appear to be things taking place in fault zones around the world that people in the international scientific community don't yet know about. Those events can at times be linked with approaching volcano eruptions and solar and geomagnetic storms. My data on this are in excellent agreement with that one group in Europe that uses ground deformation type earthquake precursors versus my electromagnetic signal data. Scientists working for the government I mentioned apparently had no idea regarding what they were doing and they did not consult with me. So when I revised my theories they were unaware that this had happened. Those individual signal data are intended in part to let scientists in that country know when the signals are being detected so that they can develop instrumentation of their own to detect them. I am in the process of preparing E-mail letters explaining all of this. They will be circulated to earthquake researchers around the world including ones working for that one government. If they are successful with the technology development efforts then they will then undoubtedly once again announce to the entire world that they have created a new earthquake forecasting program. Perhaps this time, they will be right! In the mean time, you might try reading through all of the files on my Web site to develop an understanding of the subject material before you make any judgements regarding whether or not my data represent useful earthquake precursors. These are personal opinions. Regards to all, EQF |
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