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22082 |
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Date: August 30, 2021 at 09:52:06
From: Richter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Attempt to demonstrate the resolution of the method-2 predictions |
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Predictions:
1. Loyalty Islands, -22 / 171, R=500 km., (If M6.0+
then R=800 km.)
2. Sept. 4, 2021
3. 3:04 UTC and 2nd time 20:54 UTC ( this is
resolution)
4. Mag. :M5.6+
5. Prob. : P>88%
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Responses:
[22089] [22090] [22088] [22087] |
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22089 |
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Date: September 06, 2021 at 14:00:34
From: Skywise, [DNS_Address]
Subject: No hits. |
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Both of those quakes are misses based on both distance and magnitude.
Time is also technically missed since you gave exact times and not a
window, but since you also missed on magnitude and location, time is
irrelevant.
Note that magnitudes have changed since you posted. You should wait a
few days before claiming results. Longer on weekends and holidays. The
first results reported are automatic computer generated 'guesses'. When
the USGS staff comes back in to work they manually verify the quake and
the parameters will change, especially the magnitude.
Brian
Predicted Claim 1 Claim 2
Location: 22°S, 171°W 22.387°S 179.580°W 20.848°S 178.704°W
Distance: <500 km 884 km 808 km
Magnitude: 5.6+ M4.6 M4.2
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Responses:
[22090] |
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22090 |
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Date: September 08, 2021 at 04:08:33
From: Richter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: OK |
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Responses:
None |
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22088 |
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Date: September 04, 2021 at 21:43:02
From: Richter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: 2nd Result: Resolution is true |
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Predictions:
1. Loyalty Islands, -22 / 171, R=500 km., (If M6.0+
then R=800 km.)
2. Sept. 4, 2021
3. 3:04 UTC and 2nd time 20:54 UTC ( this is
resolution)
4. Mag. :M5.6+
5. Prob. : P>88%
=======================
2nd result:
mb 4.2
Region FIJI REGION
Date time 2021-09-05 01:17:05.8 UTC
Location 20.90 S ; 178.71 W
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Location: near
Date: near
Time: error 4h 23m-predicted
Magn.: small-not predicted
Total: 2 earthquakes near 2 forecasts
======>>> we can talk about resolution
of method.
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Responses:
None |
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22087 |
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Date: September 03, 2021 at 21:48:49
From: Richter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: 1st Result-1st HIT: |
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Predictions:
1. Loyalty Islands, -22 / 171, R=500 km., (If M6.0+
then R=800 km.)
2. Sept. 4, 2021
3. 3:04 UTC and 2nd time 20:54 UTC ( this is
resolution)
4. Mag. :M5.6+
5. Prob. : P>88%
=======================
1st Result:
mb 5.1
Region SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
Date time 2021-09-04 02:15:13.9 UTC
Location 22.42 S ; 179.60 W
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Location: near
Date: predicted
Time: error 0h 49 min.-predicted
Magn.: near
Total: near HIT, wait 2nd result
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Responses:
None |
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