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21941
From: Richter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Prediction for Peru, today June 22
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1. Near Coast of Northern Peru, -6 / -81, R=200 km.+ 2. June 22, 2021 3. 20:36 UTC, +-6h 4. Magnitude: Between M4.0 and M5.3+ 5. Probability: P>88% ===================== |
21960
From: Skywise, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Prediction for Peru, today June 22
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1. Near Coast of Northern Peru, -6 / -81, R=200 km.+ If you mean 6° south latitude and 81° west longitude... The quake was at 12.6874° S -76.7208° W This is 880 km distance. Four times your radius. So based on this alone, a miss. 2. June 22, 2021 3. 20:36 UTC, +-6h The actual time of the quake is: 2021/06/23 02:54:18.922000 This is 17 hours and 44 minutes before your stated time. That's 11h 44m BEFORE the start of your window. Thus, also a miss. 4. Magnitude: Between M4.0 and M5.3+ With the + on the high end, that means anything greater than that is included, so you could have just said 4.0+. If it weren't for that symbol it would have been a miss. But because it is there, you got the magnitude. Over all, a miss. And although it's close in time it's still very far from your location. Brian |
21962
From: Richter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Prediction for Peru, today June 23
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1. On 1 degree=111km in the Earth. 2. 12-6=6.111=666 km. // 81-76=5.111=555 3. Average: (666+555)/2=1221/2=610.5 km. but for me. You are right. ================ About Date: 2:54 June 23-earthquake Prediction time: 20:36 24h-20:36=3h 24m + 2:54=5h 78m=6h 18m-error====================================== |
21963
From: Skywise, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Prediction for Peru, today June 23
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1. On 1 degree=111km in the Earth. 2. 12-6=6.111=666 km. // 81-76=5.111=555 3. Average: (666+555)/2=1221/2=610.5 km. but for me. Not the correct way to calculate distance on a sphere. You seem to be trying to use the Pythagorean theorem (and then not even correctly), which only applies to plane (flat) surfaces. The correct formula for a sphere uses trigonometry. Given two locations: lat1 lon1 lat2 lon2 Brian |
Responses:
[21969]
21969
From: Richter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Ok, I am agree...
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I would use spherical trigonometry, but these are approximate calculations just for me. There I wrote that this method is not scientific. It is easier and more lazy. =========== |
Responses:
None
21947
From: Richter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Result for Peru, M5.7. Roger, you're on your way.
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Prediction: 1. Near Coast of Northern Peru, -6 / -81, R=200 km.+ 2. June 22, 2021 3. 20:36 UTC, +-6h 4. Magnitude: Between M4.0 and M5.3+ 5. Probability: P>88% ===================== Result: M 5.7 Region NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL PERU Date time 2021-06-23 02:54:19.2 UTC Location 12.66 S ; 76.62 W =================================== Roger, you're on your way. |
Responses:
[21948]
21948
From: Richter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Result for Peru, M5.9. Roger, you're on your way.
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Result: Mw 5.9 Region NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL PERU Date time 2021-06-23 02:54:18.6 UTC Location 12.69 S ; 76.70 W Depth 50 km ================== No M5.7 But last M5.9 |
Responses:
None
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