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21722
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: CHART VIEWER WEB PAGES The Future Of Earthquake Forecasting?
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CHART VIEWER WEB PAGES The Future Of Earthquake Forecasting? Posted by EQF on January 12, 2021 The following are personal opinions. Comments regarding the information in this post are welcome. They can be posted here or sent to me via an E-mail address available at the bottom of the Chart Viewers Web page that is being discussed here. The Freewebs or Webs site URLs that I ordinarily refer to are no longer available as Webs.com has apparently been recently sold to a new company. A development version of the following Chart Viewers Web page is finally available. Chart-Viewers It is my recommendation that people who are interested in Earthquake Forecasting or disaster management should visit that Web page, read through the information, and give the routines discussed there a try. That Web page explains how people can download and save a number of other Web pages to their Personal Computers (PCs) and then use them. When stored on their PCs, those Web pages will enable people to easily and automatically download and save all of my Web sites earthquake forecasting .png files to their PCs when they are connected to the Internet. Once the .png files have been saved to their PCs, when activated, some of the Web pages will enable people to easily study and evaluate those earthquake forecasting .png files even when they are not connected to the Internet. The Web pages are available for download in both fully operational Web page forms (.html) and text (.html.txt) versions of the Web pages. The text versions are probably the easier of the two to work with. Additionally, as those .html.txt files will display as text files when accessed, their HTML contents can be easily examined and modified if desired before the files are saved to a PC. Each of the downloadable Web pages contains what are being referred to as Multiple Window Chart Viewers. Each of those Chart Viewers enables the PC user to compare my latest earthquake forecasting data (presently overdue for an update) with similar data for past Significant Earthquakes that occurred around the world going from the present back to the start of the year 1973. An absolutely astonishing amount of time and energy has gone into preparing all of those Web pages. That amount of effort was necessary partly because many government and disaster management personnel around the world who will hopefully be examining the Chart Viewers Web page and using the other Web pages, read and speak English as a second or third language. Because the Chart Viewer Web page contains so much detailed information those people should be able to use a language translation program to convert the text to any language that they wish. The meaning of the instruction text should still be clear. Efforts to circulate information regarding the new Chart Viewer Web page to governments and researchers around the world are scheduled to get underway some time in the next few weeks after I review any comments people have made regarding the content of the Web page and the use of the other new Web pages on my Web site. THE FUTURE OF THE SCIENCE OF EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING This subject is discussed in considerable detail on the following Web page. Earthquake Forecasting Breakthroughs Basically, as far as I can tell from working with other earthquake forecasters, there is no single earthquake forecasting method that can provide us with enough accurate and reliable earthquake precursor data to make it possible to tell exactly WHEN, WHERE, and HOW POWERFUL an approaching earthquake is likely to be. Instead, the Multiple Earthquake Precursor Data Evaluation Earthquake Forecasting Method is discussed in detail on that Web page. That method involves collecting a variety of earthquake precursor data and using them to assemble a reasonably accurate Earthquake Forecast much in the same way that Weather Forecasts are made. Weather forecasters dont usually totally rely on single type of weather forecast data such as satellite data. By combining data from just two forecasting methods, mine, and the one that has data available on the following Web page it is at times possible to get a moderately good idea regarding the When, Where, and How Powerful types of information related to an expected earthquake. http://www.dynamicgravity.org/mereni/ Unfortunately, it appears that Flash Player will no longer generate charts using those data. But with a little effort it should be possible to get other computer programs to generate the charts. Anyway, it is my opinion that it should be possible to generate fairly high quality earthquake forecast data using the Multiple Earthquake Precursor Data Evaluation Earthquake Forecasting Method, especially of the precursor data are combined with probability data generated by computer programs that examine when and where past earthquakes occurred. Regards to all, EQF |
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21743
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Note For Roger - Jan. 26, 2021
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Posted by EQF on January 26, 2021 Hi Roger, The latest patch that my ISP sent me finally seems to be working for accessing this Web site. Once again, could you try following the instructions on the following Web page and see if the various Web pages work once you have them stored and activated on your computer? Use an old computer if necessary. Chart-Viewers.html Considering how frequently your computers crash, if YOU can get the various Web pages downloaded and working then anyone should be able to do that. Present plans are to start sending information regarding the Chart-Viewers Web page to governments and other earthquake forecasting researchers around the world some time this week. It would be nice if someone else who uses computers could verify that the downloading and activation processes work. The actual Web pages that need to be downloaded and stored on your computer are the following ones. VIEWER-WEB-05.html.txt VIEWER-PC-05.html.txt When stored on your computer using the SAVE AS and Web Page Complete options and removing the .txt part of the extension, VIEWER-WEB-05.html when activated should make it possible to automatically download all of my important earthquake forecasting charts. During that process VIEWER-WEB-05.html will actually save the copy of itself as VIEWER.html or VIEWER.htm. However, that stored version cannot be used to download new picture files as it will focus on the ones stored on the computer. The original stored copy of VIEWER-WEB-05.html has to be used. When stored on your computer using the SAVE AS option and removing the .txt part of the extension, VIEWER-PC-05.html when activated should make it possible to view the earthquake forecasting charts that were saved to your computer when VIEWER-WEB-05.html was used. When activated, the copy of VIEWER-PC-05.html that was stored on your computer should generate charts that generally look like the following one.  SC-Chile-2019-01-19-1.pngThe early January 2019 Chart C line peaks looked similar to ones for several past destructive Chile earthquakes that can be seen in the upper window. If earthquake forecasting personnel in Chile had seen that information in early 2019 then they might have been able to determine that the following earthquake was approaching. 2019/01/20 01:32:51 30.07S 71.42W 53 6.7 "15km SSW of Coquimbo, Chile" People could have been warned. Several lives might have been saved. These are personal opinions. Regards to all, EQF |
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21745
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note For Roger - Jan. 26, 2021
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EQF; I downloaded the files but SAVE AS does not have any WEBSITE COMPLETE option. Roger |
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21746
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note For Roger - Jan. 26, 2021
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Posted by EQF on January 27, 2021 Hi Roger, Try Save Page As Web Page Complete The exact commands are a little different for various Web browsers. Regards, EQF |
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21748
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note For Roger - Jan. 26, 2021
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Posted by EQF on January 27, 2021 Hi again Roger, With some amusement, as I said, considering the history of problems you have had with your computers crashing and burning, if YOU can get those Web pages to work then anyone can. You might try to keep a written log of where problems were encountered with this. Then I can see if I can make the appropriate sections of the Chart-Viewers Web page easier to understand. Regards, EQF |
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21749
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note For Roger - Jan. 26, 2021
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EQF; So far there's only one problem. Saving as web page is not an option and cannot be entered in the save command. I'm using Firefox browser, latest version. Clicking on the html page just opens it with an editor. Roger |
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21751
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note For Roger - Jan. 26, 2021
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Posted by EQF on January 28, 2021 Hi Roger, This is unusual. I have used Internet Explorer, Firefox, and Google Chrome to save the files. Don't you ever save any Web pages? Everyone else does. The reason for asking you to try doing that was to see if anyone would encounter any problems. And the inability to save Web pages would certainly count as a problem. There might be a setting in your browser security that is blocking you from saving the Web pages. If you have a friend or relative that is connected to the Internet then you might try it with his or her computer. I have done that on a different system. Perhaps it is your ISP blocking that. I don't know if a public library would allow you to save a Web page. Perhaps they might if you were storing the information on a flash drive. Regards, EQF |
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21753
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note For Roger - Jan. 26, 2021
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EQF; I've never tried to download a website. Why would anyone want to do that? Roger |
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21755
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note For Roger - Jan. 26, 2021
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Posted by EQF on January 28, 2021 I meant a Web page from a Web site. With humor intended, you should consider hiring yourself out as a product tester. If there any problems in any way associated with anything they will show up on your computers. I still can't believe that you can't download a Web page as a Web Page Complete. I have never heard of that happening to anyone before. Try to store a copy of the following Web page on your computer and then remove the .txt extension so that it will function as a Web page rather than a text page. VIEWER-WEB-05.html.txt Then activate it on your computer. If you are connected to the Internet my Web site files should start to appear. Then see if you can use SAVE AS Web Page Complete to resave the file. It will save as VIEWER.html or VIEWER.htm depending on what Web browser you are using. This is important because now that those new files are available I am going to start discussing current earthquakes and stating that they did or did not appear in my forecast data. Those files will be important for that. Two recent significant ones did apparently appear. One that reportedly claimed about 90 lives was in the Indonesia area. I need to take a closer look at the data to see just how well they did appear in the data. Regards to all, EQF |
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21758
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note For Roger - Jan. 26, 2021
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EQF; OK, now I see the problem. If I right click on a website which is running, the SAVE AS WEBSITE option is there and it saves it to my download folder. BUT if I remove the txt from the file and click on it all I get is the html text in an editor. Roger |
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21761
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note For Roger - Jan. 26, 2021
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Posted by EQF January 28, 2021 This is turning out to be a good lesson for everyone in how not to do research. No wonder nothing ever gets done with the science of earthquake forecasting. If you can't get the .html file to load as a Web page by clicking on it then try opening the browser as is and use the Open File option to load the Web page. If it still displays as text then there must be a setting in your browser that has to be adjusted. Regards, EQF |
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21762
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note For Roger - Jan. 26, 2021
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EQF; I can't find anything about saving as website. The files show as text and I can't change it to anything else. Roger |
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21763
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note For Roger - Jan. 26, 2021
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EQF; I give up. I've tried 3 browsers so far and none of them have SAVE AS WEBSITE COMPLETE as an option. Roger |
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21766
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note For Roger - Jan. 26, 2021
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Posted by EQF on January 30, 2021 Hi Roger, Try this. When a Web page is displayed in any browser hold down the Ctrl button and press S. That should cause a screen to appear that will let you chose how you want to save a Web page. Select the Web Page Complete option. Other options are TEXT or HTML only. With humor intended, it appears to me that the problem here is that you were born at an age before that giant rock from outer space sent the dinosaurs off to their eternal reward. (Actually, some attractive present theories propose that hydrogen sulfide in ocean surface water and the loss of oxygen in the water most likely eventually did the dinosaurs in.) Your brain cells are not tuned for Internet uses. What you might do is call one of your grandchildren and ask for help the next time you run into a problem like this. These are personal opinions. Regards, EQF |
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21767
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note For Roger - Jan. 26, 2021
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EQF; Sometimes I feel like agreeing with you. I even have trouble with smart phones. But your suggestion makes no sense. I'm not trying to save a website, I'm trying to display one from the link you posted. Roger |
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21768
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note For Roger - Jan. 26, 2021
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Posted by EQF on January 30, 2021 That sounds different from what I thought you were saying before. Here is the link again. Try clicking on this to see if that Web page displays. It works with every computer I have tried including the Preview Message option on this Web site. I just tried it again and it worked. VIEWER-WEB-05 If you can't get the Web page to display then I expect that there is probably something going on with your ISP or perhaps your virus program. Try to go on a public library computer or a friend's or relative's computer. It should work. If it does then you might have to have a talk with your ISP provider or reset some of your virus program settings. Regards, EQF |
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21769
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note For Roger - Jan. 26, 2021
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EQF; YES! Clicking on that DID bring up a web page. So why did downloading the other one reduce it to html code? Roger |
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21770
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note For Roger - Jan. 26, 2021
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Posted by EQF on February 1, 2021 Hi Roger, So, we are finally making some progress. Now do a Ctrl S and try saving it as a Web Page Complete to a C:\Viewer directory. Then open the file below. VIEWER-PC-05.html.txt Save it to C:\Viewer as the text version. Then save it and in the process remove the .txt extension. It should save just like the .txt version. Then click on the saved .html version and see if reads the .png files that were stored on your computer when you saved the VIEWER-WEB-05.html file. Regards, EQF |
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21772
From: Alan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note For Roger - Jan. 26, 2021
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Quick Question eqf Why don't you put all the necessary html files and images in a pre assembled downloadable zipped folder? thus avoiding all the convoluted malarkey for folk cobbling up your construct. |
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21774
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note For Roger - Jan. 26, 2021
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Posted by EQF on February 1, 2021 If you were a government official in some country where earthquakes occur and you actually used the information on the Chart Viewers Web page then you would have seen that it contains a section that tells people that all of the files are scheduled to eventually become available in a easily downloaded and probably self expanding ZIP file. There is no sense in creating that ZIP file before there is some evidence that people can use the already existing files. As stated before, Roger is a good test subject for that. He has experienced so many computer problems in the past that if HE can get things to work, anyone can get them to work including people for whom English is a second or third language. I am planning to add another section to that Chart Viewers Web page that explains how people can use an Internet translator program to convert the instructions to whatever language they wish. That information is already available on my Earthquake Forecasting Breakthroughs Web page. It is important to add it to the Chart Viewers Web page so that people won't t have to go looking around for it. Regards to all, EQF |
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21782
From: Alan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note For Roger - Jan. 26, 2021
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Are you saying no govt official, nor anyone else apart from Roger has tried to use the instructions to assemble your html viewer tool ? "There is no sense in creating that ZIP file before there is some evidence that people can use the already existing files." By a similar token - has anyone else (govt officials etc. that you know off) used the already functioning online viewer tool on your website? I don't understand why you're going to all the effort writing a crash course in web coding to get folk to assemble a version on their computers when it's already on your website?? PS have you thought of a Mac Safari compatible version ;-) PPS Have you thought adding a key as reference (aide memoire) to what the various coloured symbols on the ECGs mean. As its so up for subjective interpretation*, and you've cherry picked only a couple of examples to demonstrate the feasibility of your comparison charts - can you say if you've ever circulated a false alarm - you briefly hint at the possibility "False positive precursor signals can at times be generated." Agree with Roger a fuller record of your predictictions over the years would be handy to examine. |
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21788
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note For Roger - Jan. 26, 2021
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Posted by EQF February 6, 2021 Given the enormous amount of time and effort required to do this work and the limited amount of time I have to devote to the effort, this is the best that can be done. Remember, it is just a matter of time before we have another major earthquake. It is important to let governments and international researchers know about the availability of these data and how to use them. The way things have been organized, researchers can download my data when they are on the Internet and study them in detail later when they are not on the Internet. There is an enormous Web page on my Web site titled "Earthquake Forecasting Procedures" that goes into a great amount of detail regarding how to use these precursor data. There is still many things I myself don't understand regarding these electromagnetic precursors. But I do know that they can at times provide a good warning regarding approaching significant earthquakes. These are personal opinions. Regards to all, EQF |
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From: Roger , [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note For Roger - Jan. 26, 2021
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EQF; Once again I say no reputable seismologist is going to devote the time and effort required to study and use your method without some good evidence that it works. If you could show that you predicted the last 20 or so major quakes correctly you might have a case. Until then, you don't. I can tell you from personal experience that letters from people like you are filed away in a cylindrical container (otherwise known as a trash can). Roger |
21793
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note For Roger - Jan. 26, 2021
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Posted by EQF on February 7, 2021 Hi Roger, Some time this coming week I am planning to post another note that I believe will clearly show how these data often signal the approach of powerful earthquakes. World governments generally have a high regard for my advice etc. As I stated in an earlier note, years ago I was personally invited by top level United Nations personnel to present a talk on my forecasting data and methodology. At the time I was just too busy to accept their invitation. I plan to contact U.N. personnel again some time in the next few weeks. These are personnel opinions. Regards, EQF |
21794
From: Roger , [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note For Roger - Jan. 26, 2021
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EQF; Often is not good enough when major destructive quakes are concerned. Too many false alarms will discredit you. "World governments..." does not include the USGS where I worked. Are you still using a 10 degree longitude band with no latitude predicted? Not good enough for prediction purposes. You need to predict a specific enough location that safety measures can be implemented. Believe me when I say I'm trying to help. If I can show your predictions are better than chance you'll have a talking point that might get some attention. Remember, I did this for 2 years for the USGS, looking for anyone who could predict quakes by any method. None were found. Roger |
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From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note For Roger - Jan. 26, 2021
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Posted by EQF February 8, 2021 Hi Roger, You are just wasting your time stating that this or that needs to be done regarding my forecasting method. I am already comparing notes with some of the top earthquake forecasting personnel on the planet regarding the new Chart Viewers Web page. None of them live in the U.S. I do want to find out if you have been able to get those downloadable Web pages to work properly. More on that later. Regards, EQF |
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21790
From: Alan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note For Roger - Jan. 26, 2021
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"researchers can download my data when they are on the Internet and study them in detail later when they are not on the Internet." How often are researchers without internet in this day & age, and needing to follow your crash course in assembling the package? Was this something 'researchers' have asked for? Or is it something you think that they need? |
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21792
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note For Roger - Jan. 26, 2021
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Posted by EQF on February 7, 2021 I am using those Chart Viewers myself to try to tell where earthquakes are going to occur. Trust me, the data are highly complex. The best way to evaluate those data is to do that while you are off the Internet. That way, some of the especially large .png files will display instantly. It won't be necessary for a person to wait while the files download. It is my belief that researchers working for one particular government spent a lot of time, energy, and probably money attempting to collect these precursor data. They even bragged in public that they were attempting to do that. Unfortunately, they did not ask me for assistance. They were apparently using the wrong technology to detect the signals. Their efforts appeared to have totally failed. I actually wanted them to be successful with their efforts. Some of the data now available at my Web site are largely designed to help those particular government officials with their efforts. Regards to all, EQF |
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21795
From: Alan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note For Roger - Jan. 26, 2021
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"That way, some of the especially large .png files will display instantly" The largest image files I can see are 1.3 MB - not especially large You can make them smaller still - 904 KB by saving as a PNG-8 in 8 colour. Again if the size worries you so much just make it into a readily downloadable zipped or rar archive package to save your intended audience having to faff about. So no one apart from Roger as far as you know has tried to follow the procedure to download the html files and image files and reassembled them - let alone used what is readily avaible on the webpage as is for divination. |
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21798
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note For Roger - Jan. 26, 2021
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Posted by EQF on February 8, 2021 The new Chart Viewers Web page contains a small section related to Internet security. ZIP files can I believe be easily loaded with computer virus material. That could happen with any ZIP file that I stored on my Web site without my even knowing that if someone got access to my account. This is one of the main reasons that my downloadable Web page files are available in .txt (text) versions. People can easily examine their contents before they convert them to .html Web page files that are to be stored and run on their PCs. Text files are easy to check for virus material. I don't presently believe that .png files can contain active computer virus material. But I am not an authority in that area. I have been told that some people in various countries still use the old telephone modems to download information. With the way that my files are organized, they might have to download some of the larger files only once. Regards, EQF |
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From: Alan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note For Roger - Jan. 26, 2021
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If you're that paranoid - password protect the zipped file and give them the pw to it if they email you. The image folder (if properly optimized) and html files only come in at 5MB in total. "I have been told that some people in various countries still use the old telephone modems to download information." Who told you that? which countries still use tel. modems? Your method of file assembly puts it beyond the use of mobile device users, and your IT ideas are at least 20+ years out of date. Your website contains more info on your crash web assembly than any useful information on the data and your obscure interpreptation at divination. What third-world (?)country are you from? |
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21796
From: Roger , [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note For Roger - Jan. 26, 2021
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Help wanted; I'm being plagued by trivial errors in programming that I can't readily find. It's probably signs of aging (I'm 86) but it's damn annoying. Right now I have a trivial program to reformat quake files. It reads 10 numerical variables for the quake date, time, location, depth and mag., then writes an output file in the proper format. But it fails on the first line, leaving mag blank and I can't figure out what's wrong. Roger |
21799
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note For Roger - Jan. 26, 2021
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Posted by EQF on February 8, 2021 Hi Roger, As I said before, it can be easy to check for errors by using the "Divide and conquer" method. One method I use to find errors is to have any information being read printed to the screen with a delay of a few seconds to see if it is accurate. Usually I will add "x" to be printed just before the variable being checked and "y" for printing after the variable. That is an easy way to tell exactly what is being read. So an accurate printout would look like this. xdatay Inaccurate printouts might look like the following. xy x y xata y x daty Often I have a longer string of text printed so that I can see if the start and stop points are correct. For example, x these are the data for the y Then the range is set to keep getting smaller until it is correct. xdatay Regards, EQF |
21801
From: Roger , [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note For Roger - Jan. 26, 2021
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EQF; In this case I know exactly which line is involved. It's a simple unformatted input statement involving 10 numbers. The last number (mag) is not getting read and prints out as zero. I have no idea why it isn't being read. It's in the file but the program doesn't see it. Roger |
21802
From: Skywise, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note For Roger - Jan. 26, 2021
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Sounds like an off-by-one error. As in, you know how arrays start at element zero, that is an array of 5 elements have element numbers 0, 1, 2, 3, 4. This may be the opposite. You may not be reading far enough into the input text line. Is the input text fixed position? And then using a mid$ or right$ commands? Are you sure you have the start points and lengths correct? But in this case, the first element of a string *IS* element one. So for example... 123.45 67.89 3.14 Trying to get that last number would be MID$(a$, 14, 4) which is "3.14". And then of course convert it to a number, so MAG = VAL(MID$(a$, 14, 4)). Ahhh... flashbacks to my BASIC days.... it's a little more complicated in C, but a million times faster. Speaking of programming, my current project just broke 10,000 lines of code. Brian |
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From: Roger , [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note For Roger - Jan. 26, 2021
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Skywise; No strings are involved. The data is in comma delimited form. Roger |
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From: Roger , [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note For Roger - Jan. 26, 2021
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Skywise; As a historical note, I first started programming in FORTRAN IV, long, long ago. Then switched to True Basic when graphics became necessary and stayed with it thereafter. Currently I'm using Version 6 thanks to EQF. Roger |
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From: Skywise, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note For Roger - Jan. 26, 2021
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EGAD!!!!! Can you image if disaster mitigation personnel had to go through all these steps just to see a weather chart so they can prepare for a hurricane? NO!!!!!! They simply click on weather.gov and it's all laid out for them. Point. Click. Digest easy to read or visualize info. Done. Brian P.S. They probably have more direct channels than a public website. But the point is made. |
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From: Roger , [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note For Roger - Jan. 26, 2021
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EQF; Sadly, your comments about me are true but they still hurt. Roger |
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21789
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note For Roger - Jan. 26, 2021
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Posted by EQF on February 6, 2021 Hi Roger, As I always say, these comments are made with humor intended. Everyone says to everyone else, "If you encounter an Internet problem, ask your grandchildren for help!" Regards, EQF |
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From: Skywise, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note For Roger - Jan. 26, 2021
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Roger, it's not you. You are not the problem here. Sure, maybe you're not the most tech savvy person but that doesn't make you an idiot. Not everyone is a computer genius (especially the duds at the genius bar!) On the other hand, it's the job of those designing user interfaces to make them as simple and easy to use as possible. It's up to Ed to present his data in a way that is easy to access. He could have the next best thing since sliced bread, but if he keeps insisting people jump through hoops to get to it, no one's gonna know how tasty it is. They're just gonna walk away. Brian |
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21778
From: Roger , [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note For Roger - Jan. 26, 2021
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Skywise; Thanks Brian, I appreciate your comment. I still can't convince EQF to let me evaluate the predictions he has sent out in the past. I'm pretty sure they would fail and of course aftershocks are not worth bothering with. I don't understand why he thinks his method is worthwhile. He has signals of an unknown source with no evidence to show they are related to quakes. Until he can show a reliable correlation no one will bother with them. Roger |
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21779
From: Skywise, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note For Roger - Jan. 26, 2021
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I'm not even going there. Yeah, I am very skeptical of his ideas, and in the past I've also been very critical of his attitude, but these are separate issues from being able to present his ideas. As I said, even if he's absolutely 100% right and has the magic key to quake prediction, he's writing the formula on a paper bag and tossing it in the rain gutter and expecting folks to hunt it down and unravel the muddy mess. This relates to my current project. You remember that 3D quake display program I've been wanting to write? Well, I'm getting somewhere finally. My C++ and OpenGL skills have reached a point where I can actually get something working. There's still a lot of work to be done, though. But, I'm already thinking of how I'm going to design the user interface. It's got to be simple. Intuitive. Easy to use. Yes, the program will have some serious power user capabilities but that will be behind menus. To get to the "pretty pictures" the interface will be very simple. Brian |
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21780
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note For Roger - Jan. 26, 2021
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Skywise; Yes I remember and look forward to seeing the new version. I wrote a similar program a LONG time ago using GWBASIC, I'd suggest using the mouse to move things around onscreen. Makes the smartphone crowd feel at home. Roger |
21781
From: Skywise, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note For Roger - Jan. 26, 2021
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A hint of things to come. No quake plotting just yet. Most of the info on the left is just for testing. Brian 
|
21783
From: Roger , [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note For Roger - Jan. 26, 2021
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Skywise; That's BEAUTIFUL! Where did you get such a detailed earth? Roger |
21784
From: Skywise, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note For Roger - Jan. 26, 2021
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Made it myself using DEM data (Digital Elevation Model) and GIS software (Geographic Information Systems). Just another skill needed to make this project happen. Right now it's 72 tiles arranged in a 12x6 grid. Each tile is 3600x3600 pixels. That's 30 arc-second resolution. At the equator that's about 926 meters or about 3038 feet. It's also about 936 megabytes of .png files. Though that is a reduction from the original 1.8 gigabyte data file. The Lat/Lon grid is not part of the map. That's an overlay made within my program. I'm not happy with the results. It's a lot of work to make the tiles and it results in a fixed data set that the user cannot change, such as the color palette. I'm already looking at having my program work with the DEM data directly. That's a whole new can of worms programming wise, but will be more efficient and opens up new possibilities. Brian |
21785
From: Roger , [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note For Roger - Jan. 26, 2021
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Skywise; Phew! Just a little spare-time project, eh? I'm impressed! Roger |
21786
From: Skywise, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note For Roger - Jan. 26, 2021
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Just a little. Current effort has been going on for a year and a half, now. It's mostly been writing little programs to do simple tasks, each with a different purpose. But now I'm working to bring it all together into one program. And I've had to stop along the way to focus on learning specific skills and programming techniques. And, I just resolved an issue that's been bugging me for nearly a week. Long story short, don't try to use a 32 bit library on a 64 bit compiler. Why didn't I see this sooner? That's what happens when you update things. It breaks. Forgot I switched to a 64 bit compiler. Brian |
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From: Roger , [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note For Roger - Jan. 26, 2021
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Skywise; Know how that goes. I have XP dual booted with 7 and lots of old dos programs stashed away. Rogert |
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From: Roger , [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note For Roger - Jan. 26, 2021
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Alan; That would make a lot more sense than the convoluted mess I've been trying to deal with (and failing) Roger |
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21771
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note For Roger - Jan. 26, 2021
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EQF; OK, viewer folder has 17 files in it. Clicking on one of them brings up a green screen, clicking on another one brings up a white screen. Progress of a sort. Roger |
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21764
From: Skywise, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note For Roger - Jan. 26, 2021
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I know he ignores me. Probably doesn't even click on my posts. If true, he's missed out on some very valuable suggestions. To put it simply, his process is too complex. KEEP IT SIMPLE, STUPID. No one is going to go through all this ordeal to do what amounts to nothing more than displaying two images next to each other so the user can compare them. (to be honest I was seriously nonplussed with his product, given all the time and effort he's obviously put into it. Literally, "That's it?!") If that's all he's trying to accomplish, it would be better of him to use a little javascript and ajax to make a webpage that does it all automatically. That way the end user just goes to the web page and it simply works. Users are stupid. Users want simple. "ooohh... pretty picture. Me click on button. Oooooh. Another pretty picture." Not meaning to put anyone down, but that's the way it is. K.I.S.S. And my comments are in no way a reflection of my opinion of his quake prediction/forecasting efforts. Just commenting on the design of his "user interface". Brian |
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From: rh588668@gmail.com, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note For Roger - Jan. 26, 2021
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Hi Brian; I agree. He's created the largest website I've ever seen to promote an idea based on signals from an unknown source which he thinks are related to quakes but refuses to let me test the predictions he's made. Why he thinks others would be interested is a mystery to me. Roger |
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21757
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Note For Roger - Jan. 26, 2021
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EQF; I've already done that. If I click on it all I get is html code in an editor. Roger |
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21728
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: CHART VIEWER WEB PAGES The Future Of Earthquake Forecasting?
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Posted by EQF January 16, 2021 Until the last week in January I will continue to be extremely busy with matters not related to earthquake forecasting. The question asked in my original post was: If you follow the steps on that Chart Viewers Web page, do the downloaded Web pages work? The post was not intended to be a discussion of the philosophy of earthquake forecasting. I created a C\Viewers directory myself on one of my PCs and followed the steps. They worked. So, can other people get them to work? I would have to say that the science of earthquake forecasting seems to be going downhill. Those dynamic gravity Web site data are invaluable in my opinion. But with Flash Player no longer working, the data are largely unavailable to anyone. I am considering creating a program that will generate charts from the original text data that are still available on that Web site. Regards to all, EQF |
21729
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: CHART VIEWER WEB PAGES The Future Of Earthquake Forecasting?
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EQF; You might want to find out if anyone is interested before going to all that work. Roger |
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From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: CHART VIEWER WEB PAGES The Future Of Earthquake Forecasting?
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From EQF January 22, 2021 Hi Roger, I have today free and will be attempting to update my forecasting Web site files. Then I will be busy again for the next three days. Instead of spending all of your time going around in circles, you might try doing something positive. For something positive, try to see if you can follow the instructions on that Chart-Viewers Web page, download the Web files as directed, and then get them to work. One of the important goals there is to have the VIEWER-WEB-05.html file saved on your PC so that it will automatically download the picture files from my Web site and allow them to be saved by use of the SAVE AS, WEBPAGE COMPLETE options. It will save as the file VIEWER.html or VIEWER.htm rather than VIEWER-WEB-05.html. Then activate your computer copy of VIEWER-WEB-05.html again and make certain that it reads the picture files from my Web site rather than the ones that were automatically stored in the VIEWER_files subdirectory. Chart-Viewers.html Regards to all, EQF |
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21724
From: Alan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: CHART VIEWER WEB PAGES The Future Of Earthquake Forecasting?
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"to easily and automatically download and save" "will enable people to easily study and evaluate" "contents can be easily examined" Reading your word salad - 'easily' isn't the appropriate word for what you have set out. If you want it to as easy as weather forecasting then you need to make forecasts up front and demonstrate any accuracy in the method - not get folk undergo a crash course in html editing plus hassle of downloading a variety of under the bonnet files to cobbble together. Giving folk access with explainers is great secondarily but not primarily. Why not use a Joomla type CMS website which uses sql databases and get a custom component written to do the heavy lifting and display on the fly. |
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21736
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: CHART VIEWER WEB PAGES The Future Of Earthquake Forecasting?
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Posted by EQF January 22, 2021 As I have said before, I am an experienced, professional disaster manager. One of the most important rules for doing this type of works is covered by the popular phrase: KEEP IT SIMPLE !!! Having people download simple Web pages that are available in a text form is the simplest and safest way to do all of this. Forecasters need to be able to do the research part of this forecasting work while they are not connected to the Internet. That can be done with the approach I am using. These are not "Earthquake Predictions" that require detailed instructions for how to evaluate them and proof that the forecasting method works. They are EARTHQUAKE PRECURSOR DATA that people can compare with other precursor data in the hopes of determining that an earthquake might be about to occur at some location. On my Web site there are PNG files that provide graphical histories of how my data compared with past significant earthquakes going back to the start of 2001. I believe that they clearly prove that this type of forecasting method will work for some approaching earthquakes. For many people, these might be the ONLY precursor data that they are going to have that are easily available. I wish that Shan would try to do more to make his forecasting method available and also show if it was able to accurately predict some of our more powerful earthquakes. I have no idea regarding what the Dynamic Gravity people are presently doing. They travel a lot and can be difficult to contact. These are personal opinions. Regards to all, EQF |
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21737
From: Alan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: CHART VIEWER WEB PAGES The Future Of Earthquake Forecasting?
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"These are not "Earthquake Predictions" that require detailed instructions for how to evaluate them and proof that the forecasting method works. They are EARTHQUAKE PRECURSOR DATA that people can compare with other precursor data in the hopes of determining that an earthquake might be about to occur at some location." "He or she might then decide that it is important to determine if that could be an indicator" ...he or she could display significant past Chile earthquakes in the Chart Viewer upper window and compare their line shapes with Line blah blah..." " Those line peak shape similarities could be interpreted..." Seems like all you are doing your best to create is an overly complex online tarot/rune psuedo-random generator. Using a divination system such as runes can help trigger intuitive associations: when a specific rune symbol is chosen at random, the symbol is interpreted for the deeper meaning it signals. "As I have said before, I am an experienced, professional disaster manager." "KEEP IT SIMPLE !!!" So what, why should anyone trust and invest time & effort on your anonymous clunky coding and dubious underlying methodology and principles. Plus what you you have set out isn't simple fails to demonstrate what it claims - and as for Shan how many people did he convince to replicate his supposedly relatively simple method of tracing analemma's on a dodgily plastered wall - that generated a relentless glut of worthless predictions for years without reflection. |
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21738
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: CHART VIEWER WEB PAGES The Future Of Earthquake Forecasting?
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EQF; I agree with Alan. Also I don't know HTML so can't be of any use in that regard. Additionally, you need to show that your method actually works before anyone would be willing to spend any time trying to work with it. What I AM doing is to work on a program which will determine the probability of a quake of a given mag happening in a given longitude box of a given width. Roger |
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21740
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: CHART VIEWER WEB PAGES The Future Of Earthquake Forecasting?
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EQF; I've got the program running finally. It still gives error messages about quakes that are not in the file. That strikes me as spooky. Anyway, if you will direct me to a file of your past predictions I'll determine the probability of them and then you'll have a basis for your posts. Roger |
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21741
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: CHART VIEWER WEB PAGES The Future Of Earthquake Forecasting?
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EQF; Here's a challenge for you. I'm willing to bet that all your predictions have a high probability and I state this without having tested any of them. Roger |
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21742
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: CHART VIEWER WEB PAGES The Future Of Earthquake Forecasting?
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Posted by EQF January 26, 2021 Hi Roger, How about the following for a prediction? On January 25, 2001 I had an on and off 5 hour telephone conversation with one of the top disaster mitigation officials at the United Nations. That person is still working though no longer at the UN. He (or she) could verify that this happened. I stated that my earthquake forecasting data were indicating that a highly destructive earthquake could be about to occur and that UN disaster management personnel should prepare for it while I attempted to see if I could generate any probable location data for the expected earthquake. Unfortunately, at that time my present location generation computer programs had not yet been developed and I could not generate any high accuracy location information. In less than 24 hours the following devastating earthquake occurred. 2001/01/26 03:16:40 23.42N 70.23E 16 7.7 "Gujarat, India" My records indicate that it claimed some 20,000 lives. I don't know if my warning was helpful with getting UN disaster response personnel prepared for the earthquake. However, the official that I spoke with did invite me to the United Nations headquarters in New York to give a lecture on my earthquake forecasting work with all travel expenses etc. paid. Unfortunately, at the time of the invitation I was too busy with other work and could not accept the invitation. These are personal opinions. Regards to all, EQF |
21744
From: rh588668@gmail.com, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: CHART VIEWER WEB PAGES The Future Of Earthquake Forecasting?
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EQF; That doesn't even qualify as a prediction. You didn't say when, where and how big. You just said a big one was going to happen. Roger |
21747
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: CHART VIEWER WEB PAGES The Future Of Earthquake Forecasting?
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Posted by EQF on January 27, 2021 Hi Roger, You also don't believe that very precise earthquake aftershock predictions are true predictions. You appear to me to be making it up as you go along! As I have said before, generally what I circulate are earthquake warnings. The data on my Web site are just precursor data. My only true earthquake predictions are the aftershock warnings. Regards, EQF |
21750
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: CHART VIEWER WEB PAGES The Future Of Earthquake Forecasting?
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EQF; No, I don't consider aftershocks as predictions since they are inevitable after large earthquakes. Roger |
21752
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: CHART VIEWER WEB PAGES The Future Of Earthquake Forecasting?
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Posted by EQF January 28, 2021 Hi Roger, I am willing to bet that you would change your mind about aftershock predictions if you ever got caught in one and buildings started collapsing around you! It is important to remember the reason for doing all of this. It is to possibly save some lives. And aftershocks claim lives quite often. People in the way of a deadly earthquake are not going to be concerned about whether or not the timely warning they got beforehand met someone's prediction criteria. Regards, EQF |
21754
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: CHART VIEWER WEB PAGES The Future Of Earthquake Forecasting?
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EQF; But your predictions are too vague to be useful. If you gave specific dates for aftershocks I would agree. But your dates are merely based on the moon's location and that's not been proven to be correct. Roger |
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[21756]
21756
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: CHART VIEWER WEB PAGES The Future Of Earthquake Forecasting?
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Posted by EQF on January 289, 2021 I sent a VERY clear aftershock prediction with a VERY clear date to officials working for one government back in 2015. The earthquake occurred right when expected. There were numerous fatalities. These are personal opinions. Regards, EQF |
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21725
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: CHART VIEWER WEB PAGES The Future Of Earthquake Forecasting?
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EQF; I agree with Alan. First demonstrate you have a working method to predict quakes. Then show others how to do it. Roger |
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21723
From: Skywise, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: CHART VIEWER WEB PAGES The Future Of Earthquake Forecasting?
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"Information overload". It's just too much. And it doesn't flow very well. Ever heard of the KISS principle? "Keep It Simple, Stupid." Just an idea, but maybe the first page you direct people to should only have the end result, the "chart viewer" and a few lines of simple explanation on what it is and how to use it. Keep it so that it all fits onto a single screen without having to scroll down much if at all. Provide links to further documentation pages. That way if anyone is interested, they can still get the details. Second, your web code does not follow standards. https://validator.w3.org/ Shows 53 errors and 2 warnings. Most having to do with your commenting style. Not sure how you develop your web pages. I used to use a program but now write my pages manually in a text editor. Prefer Notepad++. As far as I know all my website pages pass W3 validation. I intend this as constructive criticism. Brian |
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