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21730
From: Skywise, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Did anyone redict it? - M 7.0 - 210 km SE of Pondaguitan, Philippines
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M 7.0 - 210 km SE of Pondaguitan, Philippines https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000d20e/executive Maybe we should start keeping track of all the big quakes that no one predicted. Brian |
21731
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Did anyone redict it? - M 7.0 - 210 km SE of Pondaguitan,...
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Easily done for quakes but who knows all the predictors? Roger |
21732
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Did anyone redict it? - M 7.0 - 210 km SE of Pondaguitan,...
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Just to stir the pot I created a file of 6.5+ quakes from 2015/1/1 to 2020/12/27. There are 249 of them. Now who has the predictions? Roger |
21733
From: Skywise, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Did anyone predict it? - M 7.0 - 210 km SE of Pondaguitan,...
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That's my point. So many people claim to be able to have the magic key and make predictions. Sometimes they get lucky. Many times they fudge something in to claim a hit. But it seems to me like there's a lot of large quakes such as this one that no one predicted. And saying that it was NOT predicted is far easier than arguing fudge factors for stated predictions. Point being, if there are viable methods for quake prediction, and I am open to the possibility, then why are quakes such as this one NOT predicted? Is that not a paradox? Brian |
21734
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Did anyone predict it? - M 7.0 - 210 km SE of Pondaguitan,...
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Skywise; Of course. The first duty of a predictor is to post a list of his predictions together with the predicted quake to show that his method works. That's what I do as an evaluator after the fact. No one has passed the test so far. Roger |
Responses:
[21739]
21739
From: Alan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Did anyone predict it? - M 7.0 - 210 km SE of Pondaguitan,...
URL: Dambusters 'bouncing bomb' sight sells for more than £41,000
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It's like EQF is trying to give away instructions to making his earthquake 'bomb sight' out of sticky plastic and html! Not that ideas can't be novel, simple and effective but they've got to at least do what they claim and demonstrate they can reliably hit a target in testing before its distributed. How the sight works: The bomb aimer held the sight and looked through the round opening, with the legs of the Y pointing away from him. When the two white pegs at the end of each leg of the Y lined up with the towers of the dam, the aircraft was within the correct range and the bomb was dropped. The goal was to drop the bomb at 400 yards (366 metres) from the dam. Determining the precise flying height of 60 feet across the water on approaching the dams was another ingenious but simple idea. https://www.rafmuseum.org.uk/research/online-exhibitions/617- squadron-and-the-dams-raid/spotlights-low-altitude-flying- modification.aspx |
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