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21644
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: New program results
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Hi all; I just finished a new program to compute earthquake odds for 10 degree wide columns of longitude with mag 6.5+ quakes. Turns out that there are no such columns with zero probability and 12 with greater than 1.0 probability. This is important for predictors like Amit and EQF who make predictions of that type, specifying longitude but not latitude. Roger |
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21645
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: New program results
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Posted by EQF on October 26, 2020 Hi Roger and all, Some care should be taken regarding what anyone says concerning my forecasting program's capabilities unless a person is thoroughly familiar with all of the information discussed on my Web pages. For example, my earthquake AFTERSHOCK predictions (and those specific forecasts ARE true predictions) provide exact information for latitude and longitude, fairly reliable information regarding likely occurrence time, and some information regarding the likely magnitude. All of those things are discussed in detail in my Web site reports. OTHER TOPICS I have no idea regarding what might have caused Shan to stop posting information to his Web site if that is still the case. I do know that since his method depends on tracking a sun shadow image he was encountering problems as the result of building construction near him that was blocking the sunlight. I also do not know if his calculations are accurate. It is my opinion that his basic method involving tracking the sun shadow might be valid as it seems that it would be in good agreement with research being done in the Europe - Asia area that involves measuring ground tilt before an earthquake. Some of Shan's data regarding WHEN an earthquake is likely to occur also agree with my own data. No high intensity EM Signals were detected during the past few weeks. Most often that means that there are no highly significant earthquakes on the way in the near future. Unfortunately, that situation can change in just a day. Then there will abruptly be plenty of signals often followed by a significant, and frequently destructive, earthquake. This week I am hoping that I can determine why I can access this Web site one minute, not the next, and then access it again the next minute. This might involve some type of signal coordination between this Web site's ISP and my own with my own being the guilty party. These are personal opinions. Regards to all, EQF |
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21648
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: New program results
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EQF; I'm still waiting for that list of all your past quake predictions, the ones you sent to various countries to warn them. Quake aftershocks don't really qualify as predictions. After all, we know where they will happen and approximately when as well. Roger |
21649
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: New program results
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Just noticed Amit Dave has stopped posting. Conditions in India responsible maybe? Roger |
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[21650]
21650
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: New program results
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Cancel that. He just skipped Feb. others continued elsewhere. Roger |
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None
21647
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: New program results
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EQF; There was a mag. 7.5 on Oct 19, south of Alaska. I don't recall you posting anything about it. Roger |
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[21653]
21653
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: New program results
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Posted by EQF on October 29, 2020 Hi Roger, Check this link. http://earthboppin.net/talkshop/rollem/messages/21624.html I stated in that note that recent signals were likely pointing to an approaching earthquake and that using my new, experimental formula, the second Time Window for it would end on October 20, 2020. You stated that the earthquake occurred on October 19, 2020. The first Time Window was also experimental. That was for the time when the sun and moon were on opposite sides of the Earth. I would have to check my past data going back years in time to see if that type of calculation is accurate. The second Time Window is for times when the sun and moon are on the same side of the Earth. It appears to often produce good results. I still have not had time to run the data through my computer programs and don't know if the EM Signals might have been pointing to the earthquake you mentioned. PRESENT EFFORTS With luck the first version of my new Chart Viewer Web page might be done today or tomorrow. All of my free time for months has gone into preparing that Web page. I have not had any time to do any forecasting work. We apparently strongly disagree on what constitutes an earthquake prediction. I believe that an aftershock prediction is a true prediction. People who live where the aftershock is going to occur probably don't care about definitions. Most would likely want to know when a powerful aftershock is approaching. These are personal opinions. Regards to all, EQF |
Responses:
None
21646
From: Alan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: New program results
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" It is my opinion that his basic method involving tracking the sun shadow might be valid as it seems that it would be in good agreement with research being done in the Europe - Asia area that involves measuring ground tilt before an earthquake. Some of Shan's data regarding WHEN an earthquake is likely to occur also agree with my own data." Presumably 'ground tilt' related to local quakes in the vicinity - and not for making predictions all around the world. Shan never or couldn't answer basic questions nor accuracy of his measurements from his crude observatory setup. He also seemed to refuse to contact Jantar Mantar obervatory for collaboration / confirmation of the effects/distortions he claimed to be recording. |
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21651
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: New program results
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Posted by EQF on October 29, 2020 These are personal opinions. Once again, It is my opinion that at this time, every forecasting group including Shan and my own efforts are on their own to demonstrate that their method work. SHAN'S METHOD Also as stated earlier, I believe that it is possible that the first part of his method might actually generate some good data. That is the part where I understand that the sun shadow indicates that a fault zone somewhere has strain building. How he does his calculations and their accuracy are for him to demonstrate. EUROPE - ASIA AREA GROUND TILT METHOD This is their Web site address: http://www.dynamicgravity.org/mereni/ Their 30 day graphs are probably the best to check. I just checked it and see that they got their Ida sensor running again. I heard that it had been out of action for a while because of fighting taking place in the European area. That station usually generates the data that agree best with my own. I believe that it is their belief plus my own that their method can track fault zone strain building over great distances. Their data from before that one Hawaii volcano eruption and powerful earthquake are in excellent agreement with mine. Both they and I are located a great distance from both Hawaii and from our own forecast locations. I presently don't know how large an area they cover. I have made efforts over they years to help get their sensor systems established in both the U.S. and in one South American country. The U.S. effort was reportedly close to being successful. They unfortunately reportedly lost funding at the last minute. I don't know what happened to the South American site effort. I never heard what happened or did not happen to it and don't have enough free time to go too far to get information. Regards to all, EQF |
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21652
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: New program results
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EQF; Must disagree. Nothing in science stands without independent confirmation. I can state categorically that Shan's method does not work. Valid methods would stand up to any qualified examination. Your refusal to present your past predictions for examination is cause for concern. Roger |
21654
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: New program results
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Posted by EQF on October 29, 2020 With humor intended, Don't you have something useful to do with your free time? For the moment while I am extremely busy, probably the easiest thing for me to do is to point you to the Table Data Web page on my Web site. You should actually try reading my Web pages now and then. That Web page has not been updated in quite a while. But it lists the times when high intensity EM Signals were detected in the recent past and contains lists of 20 earthquakes that match each signal. In my opinion, some of those data have been frighteningly accurate with identifying locations for approaching earthquakes. Regards to all, EQF |
21655
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: New program results
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EQF; I'm familiar with that web page. Giving information about signals which match 20 past quakes is not helpful and doesn't qualify as a prediction. Each of those quakes were in seismic regions with high probability for additional quakes. Getting an occasional hit that way is no surprise. It seems to me if you had spent the time it has taken you to create the largest website on earth in perfecting your prediction method you would either have abandoned it or made it something useful. Roger |
21656
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: New program results
URL: Comments and News
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Posted by EQF October 29, 2020 With humor intended, as the old saying goes, "Flattery will get you nowhere!" This is a new Web page: Comments.html Remember, these are indirect URLs that are partly intended to keep spam robots away from my forecasting Web site. It is important to remember that an extremely important race is taking place with all of this. It is a race between the time of our next highly destructive earthquake and the creation of this new Chart Viewers Web page that should make it easy for forecasters around the world to view and download my latest forecast data. They can store a simple Web page on their PCs and then just activate the Web page whenever they wish. If they are connected to the Internet the Web page will automatically download all of my latest forecast data for them. Then by doing a Save As and Web Page Complete, those data will be stored on their PC. When activated, another simple Web page that they can store on their PCs will let them examine those new data. They won't need to be connected to the Internet to see them. This is not just a matter of creating these new Web pages. Forecasters and governments around the world need to be told about them with some information regarding how to interpret the data. So, there is a LOT of work still left to do. Another old saying goes, "Nothing in life is certain except death and taxes." "Highly Destructive Earthquakes" could be added to that list. It is just a matter of "When," not "If." This race involves trying to get everything possible created, organized, and ready to use before that next major earthquake. Regards to all, EQF |
21659
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: You lost the race.
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Eqf; The major quake has happened, unpredicted. Roger |
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None
21657
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: New program results
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EQF; You really need to take a look at this site https://phys.org/news/2020-02-earthquakes-deform- gravity.html PEGS may be related to your signals and if so would lend some credence to your claims. Roger |
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21658
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: New program results
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Posted by EQF on October 31, 2020 Happy Halloween to all, Hi Roger and all, I did see that Web page when you first mentioned that method. If the basic phenomenon has some connection with my own forecasting method would have to be determined. That would likely be not too difficult. There might be a connection. OTHER TOPICS Shan is circulating an earthquake warning. I am waiting for more details. Suggestions for dealing with Covid-19 were sent to various parties earlier today as part of one of my humanitarian projects. It should be interesting to see if any of that Covid-19 information makes it into the national and international news. There WILL be widespread coverage of the information if it does. Regards to all, EQF |
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