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21608
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Earthquake Forecasting Update August 31, 2020
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EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING UPDATE Posted by EQF on August 31, 2020 One final Web page needs to be completed before efforts get underway to discuss earthquake forecasting and earthquake triggering matters with government officials and news service personnel around the world. Quite a few international scientists have already be advised to watch for the latest developments. That one remaining Web page will discuss and contain links to downloadable Web pages on my Web site that are associated with Chart Viewers. That Web page and the associated Chart Viewers are still not ready for use even after months of preparation work. This is because everything is so technically complex. However, when viewed and/or downloaded, the Chart Viewers should be extremely easy to use. CHART VIEWERS are multiple window resources that enable earthquake forecasters and researchers to display one .png picture file in the upper window of the Chart Viewer and a different one in the lower window. The charts can be scrolled up and down so that data in the upper and lower windows can be compared with one another. Quite a few Chart Viewer examples can presently be seen on my Data.html Web page. The new Chart Viewer Web pages will make it easy for users to examine and also download the earthquake forecasting and research .png picture files on my Web site. People will be able to store the Chart Viewer Web pages and .png files on their personal computers and automatically update the .png files when the are connected to the Internet, or examine the .png file copies stored on their personal computers when they are not connected to the Internet. People can use the Chart Viewers to compare recent EM Signals data with data for recent significant earthquakes in order to determine if significant aftershocks might be about to occur. EM Signal date can be compared with data for significant earthquakes going back the start of 1973 in order to determine if a NEW earthquake might be about to occur at some location. For an example of how important those data can be, recent notes on my Web site recommended that people watch for possible earthquake activity along the 124 E longitude line because there were strong EM Signal line peaks for quite a while at that longitude. The following powerful earthquake then occurred and reportedly resulted in at least one fatality. 2020/08/18 00:03:48 12.02N 124.12E 10 6.6 "13 km E of San Pedro, Philippines" Within 2 weeks after that earthquake occurred the line peaks shifted to the 70 W area. That provides some evidence that the earthquake and the line peaks were likely related. There was also a very powerful Indonesia earthquake in the 124 E longitude area around that time. But it was likely too deep in the crust to have generated EM Signals that intense. 2020/08/21 04:09:52 6.67S 123.49E 627 6.9 "220 km SSE of Katabu, Indonesia" These are personal opinions. Regards to all, EQF |
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21615
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Earthquake Forecasting Update August 31, 2020
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Update posted by EQF on September 20, 2020 The effort to create a “Chart-Viewer” Web page and its associated Chart Viewers is almost done. It has turned out to be an astonishingly complex project. The “Chart Viewers” themselves are relatively simple Web pages that make it possible for the people using them to automatically download my Web site earthquake forecasting png picture files and then save them to their PCs if they wish and also examine them in detail. They won’t have to actually visit my Web site to see those data. They can then compare older forecasting data with the latest data and hopefully spot the approach of some significant earthquakes. The Chart Viewers all work perfectly with the Windows Internet Explorer browser. But when they are used with Firefox and Chrome they can have different behaviors. The HTML code being used does not work the same with all of those browsers. As a consequence, the main Chart-Viewer Web page has had to be written with detailed instructions for how people can use the Chart Viewers when working with various browsers. The Chart Viewers themselves can be easily modified through the use of any text editor. They will be available with both actual Web page .html and Web page text .html.txt file formats. People are advised that if they want to create customized Chart Viewers but don’t know how to work with HTML code they can ask other people about that. Many people are familiar with HTML code. Once that Chart-Viewer Web page is finally done, information regarding the Chart Viewers and the data on my earthquake forecasting Web pages is scheduled to be sent to scientist, governments, and news services around the world. That should be in a week or two. Preliminary notices were sent to scientists around the world months ago. PREDICTING EARTHQUAKES Once again, my Web site forecast data are not intended to actually “predict earthquakes.” What they do is indicate that a fault zone somewhere (or possibly a volcano) is generating the EM Signals that I work with. When those signals continue to point to the same location for more than a few weeks then it is advised that earthquake forecasters around the world attempt to determine exactly where that fault zone is located. A number of Web pages on my Web site explain in detail how they can attempt to do that. These are personal opinions. Regards to all, EQF |
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21616
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Earthquake Forecasting Update August 31, 2020
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Hi EQF; So you're posting an alarm and expecting someone else to find out where/when a quake will happen. That's just not gonna happen. You haven't proven that your signals are related to quakes at all. Until you do that, any random date is as good as your signal because some of them will correlate with a quake by chance. Roger |
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21617
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Earthquake Forecasting Update August 31, 2020
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Posted by EQF on September 21, 2020 Hi Roger, These are personal opinions. Your comments might have a higher level of credibility if you had actually visited my Web site and read any of its reports that go into a considerable amount of detail showing that at least some Earthquakes Can Be Predicted and that the EM Signals that I work with do often appear to be pointing to actual approaching earthquakes. Would you listen to a music critic who has never heard some song or a book reviewer who has never read a book or a movie reviewer who only listened to what other people had to say about a movie without ever having seen it himself or herself? Most people would not. So, why would anyone want to listen to your comments regarding the value or accuracy of some earthquake forecasting program that you appear to know nothing about? This gets back to something I have said before. It is my belief that governments are not going to be able to do any effective earthquake forecasting work as long as they allow scientists and other technical people to run their forecasting programs. Those programs need to be run, at least at this time, by experienced, competent, disaster management professionals. The most difficult step in running those programs probably involves learning how to warn the general public that an earthquake could be on the way for where they live and work. Professional disaster managers would already know or be willing to learn how to do that. Most scientists and other technical people would not have the right type of training and background to be able to do that. It is like expecting professional weather forecasters to organize efforts to evacuate entire cities when major storms are approaching. They are technical people. The city evacuation efforts need to be run by disaster managers. It is the same with earthquake forecasting. TB COMPUTER PROGRAMMING If you want to dramatically increase the power of your True Basic computer language then a PC Basic program could be written that would make that possible. It would watch for information in certain files and then act on that information when it appeared. PC Basic can send commands to the operating system. Apparently, TB cannot do that. I believe that routines could also be written using PC Basic that would enable TB to indirectly generate high quality graphics that were compatible with the operating system. Those things could also be done using Perl and Gnuplot. But it would be overly complicated. Regards to all, EQF |
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21618
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Earthquake Forecasting Update August 31, 2020
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EQF; I'd be willing to bet I've read more of your website than anyone online. I have a fair understanding of your method and I also know you have not evaluated the accuracy of it. Neither have I since getting the required information is very difficult. PC Basic seems to be DOS's GWBASIC. I don't need it for graphics. TB does that very well. Roger |
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21619
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Earthquake Forecasting Update August 31, 2020
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Posted by EQF on Tuesday, September 22, 2020 It appears to me that no matter how much reading you have done, you still don't understand how this forecasting method works. It uses two dramatically different procedures. In the past it used a third procedure that generates valuable data but requires too much time and effort to use on a regular basis. One being presenly used is based on the AVERAGE of large numbers of EM Signals. The other is based on analyses of INDIVIDUAL high intensity EM Signals such as one that was detected a day or two before that absolutely devastating January 12, 2010 Haiti area earthquake. That signal was very likely associated with the approach of the earthquake. Had people been able to interpret the signal and act on it then an incredibly large number of lives might have been saved. I believe that an international group of scientists formally published a technical paper that summarized much of the information in my Earthquake Forecasting Breakthroughs Web page. They obviously carefully studied my data. In any case, with so many lives on the line when a significant earthquake occurs, every forecasting method should be carefully examined. Years ago, another researcher in Mainland China and I attempted to do that with Shan's forecasting method. I still believe that his method has tremendous potential and value. If I remember correctly, he was presented with some type of formal recognition by the Indonesian Government. TB PROGRAMMING Studies done in the past indicated to me that the TB graphics are not easily compatible with the Windows operating system. Gnuplot graphics are. And reading suggests to me that this would also be the case for PC Basic. I believe that PC Basic is likely far more powerful than GW Basic. GW Basic is limited regarding program size and memory usage and might use 100% of a CPU time. TB generates nice, compact .exe files. That is not the case for Perl and is apparently not the case for PC Basic. But for someone who insists on programming with TB, the two programs would probably work quite well together. Regards to all, EQF |
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21620
From: Alan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Earthquake Forecasting Update August 31, 2020
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http://earthquake.itgo.com/great.htm Not good - yes Shan got a letter from an Indonesian politician Andi Arief who it seems has a fondness for crystal meth... not a great endorsement.  And another pic Shan shows on his site supposedly of a Tsunami "wave" shown in the photograph is in reality a large dust storm that hit the town of Griffith, NSW Australia in 2002. |
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21621
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Earthquake Forecasting Update August 31, 2020
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EQF; I've evaluated Shan and keep a running list of his predictions. Below chance results. Roger |
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21622
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Earthquake Forecasting Update August 31, 2020
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EQF; I have over 1300 of Shan's predictions so I can be sure of my evaluation. But I have nothing similar for your predictions. If you wish to claim some status in this area you would do well to provide such a list for evaluation. Otherwise..... Roger |
21624
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Earthquake Forecasting Update August 31, 2020
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Posted By EQF on September 27, 2020 As stated in other posts, it can be as much as a week between my visits to this forum. So response posts and updates might take a while. For goodness sakes, Roger, You said that you have visited my Web site and examined at least some of the files. Try reading the material with the intention of understanding it instead of looking for reasons to say that it doesn’t prove anything. My “predictions” at the site are found in the “Year Chart,” Year Charts,” EQ-EMS,”, and “EMS” files. They clearly display my forecast record going back to the start of 2001. I expect that they could be the best records of earthquake forecasting activity that can be found anywhere on the Internet. Once again, these are not actual predictions. Persistent line peaks at some longitude are indicating that a fault zone or volcano somewhere is generating signals. And it can be vitally important that people determine where that fault zone is located. That should not be too difficult as there will likely be other easily observable earthquake precursors at that location around the same time the signals are being generated. EARTHQUAKE AFTERSHOCK FORECASTS With my forecasting method, determining exactly where an expected earthquake is going to occur is often possible. But the process can be complicated as my Web site reports indicate. However, since it can be a matter of life and death for forecasters to determine WHERE an expected earthquake is going to occur it should be worth the effort. Earthquake aftershocks are different. It is relatively easy to predict them as we already know where they are likely to occur. If the approaching aftershock is going to be powerful enough that signals are being generated then it is likely to have a fairly high magnitude. Also, if signals are being generated then the aftershock is likely to occur fairly soon, probably within a week. In the past I have been able to circulate some highly accurate aftershock type predictions. EARTHQUAKE ADVISORY This has not yet been posted to this forum as a formal advisory because I have not had a chance to run the data through my computer programs to do any location determinations. But it probably will be posted here some time this week. A potentially significant earthquake is likely approaching based on recently detected EM Signals. A new and still experimental Time Window determination procedure indicates that it might occur before October 3, 2020. It relies on sun and moon location data. The sun and moon will be on opposite sides of the Earth around October 1, 2020. That should be a time of high tidal forces stress. If the expected earthquake does not occur by then then the next Time Window would end around October 20, 2020 when the sun and moon will be in line with one another on the same side of the Earth. That is another time of high tidal forces stress. SHAN’S FORECASTING METHOD I don’t know myself if his data are accurate. Another researcher and I evaluated his data years ago. But my part was with preparing the reports. I was not involved with the calculations and could not even clearly understand the results. So, I don’t have an opinion regarding the matter. However, it appears that there are two parts to his forecasting method. The FIRST part involves determining that strain is building in a fault zone somewhere. This is determined by observing changes in the normal shape of a shadow trace cast on the wall of a building as the sun travels across the sky. For a variety of reasons that would take too long to explain in this present posting, I believe that this part of his forecast methodology could be valid. The SECOND part involves using that shadow trace to determine the location of the fault zone where strain is building. In theory I believe that this might be possible. But I don’t know if his measurements along those lines are accurate. I cannot clearly decipher his data for lack of time. My own forecasting method takes quite a bit of time to keep running. Some of his recent data have generally agreed with mine regarding signs that a significant earthquake could be approaching. In my opinion, the potential value of his forecasting method has to do with its simplicity and the fact that it could be used by people in remote villages without even the need to be connected to the Internet. Something that I have said repeatedly to other forecasters is that at the present time, they are on their own with regard to proving that their forecasting method works and with regard to making their data available to people around the world. Shan’s data are available. But there are no details available that I am aware of regarding how he does his calculations etc. I myself can’t clearly understand his forecasts. And as far as I am aware, there are no records at his site for the accuracy of past forecasts. My conclusion is that he still has some work to do in order to demonstrate that his forecasting method works and with getting governments and forecasters etc. to evaluate it and use it. These are personal opinions. Regards to all, EQF |
21625
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Earthquake Forecasting Update August 31, 2020
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EQF; I can't use your graphs for evaluation. What I need is a chronological list of all your predictions. Roger |
21626
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Earthquake Forecasting Update August 31, 2020
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Posted by EQF on Thursday, October 1, 2020 Hi Roger, It is important that this Chart Viewer Web page I have been working on get done before I work on anything else. That might get done this week. I finally got the HTML code for individual Web pages set so that it would work with a variety of Internet browsers. Then the latest EM Signal data need to be processed. That won’t take too long. TB AND WINDOWS BATCH FILES It occurred to me that True Basic can be made quite a bit more powerful through the use of 1 or two Windows shortcut files and 1 or 2 extremely simple Windows DOS batch files. My Perl programs use routines like that all the time to do a variety of tasks. For example, when one of my Perl programs is running, by pressing one key or a selection of keys I can have the program tell Internet Explorer or Firefox to automatically go to any Web site, ask for, download, and then process earthquake data. Or the latest world news can be displayed. It did not occur to me until earlier today that any interactive program such as TB or even GWBasic could also do those things. If you are interested I will explain how you can get TB plus those Shortcut and Batch files to do those things. |
21627
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Earthquake Forecasting Update August 31, 2020
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EQF; By all means! New procedures are always welcome. I'm familiar with batch files from my DOS days. It should be easy for TB to access one. Just never occurred to me. Roger |
21628
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Earthquake Forecasting Update August 31, 2020
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EQF; Nothing in the books either and I think I know why. The .bat file is just a set of fixed expressions to save repetitive typing but those can be included in a TB program and selected by an input keypress. Roger |
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21629
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Earthquake Forecasting Update August 31, 2020
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Posted by EQF on October 6, 2020 Hi Roger, Using BAT and Windows shortcut files to increase the power of TB or any such program is actually quite simple. But it has to be done exactly right. It took me years, perhaps even a decade or more to learn the right combination of steps needed to get this to work. Since you are interested, the present plan is to get the necessary files running on my PC and then explain the steps here with any necessary text supplied for the BAT files. But, as I said, I am still focusing on the creation of that Chart Viewers Web page. The effort has such a high priority because I want to try to get everything set before we have another major earthquake. Forecasters and governments around the world should then be able to easily access my data both before and after the earthquake. No high intensity EM Signals have been detected lately. But everyone knows that powerful and destructive earthquakes will continue to occur. I still have not had time to process the EM Signal data that were responsible for my saying in an earlier post that I plan to circulate an Earthquake Advisory. Regards to all, EQF |
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