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21562 |
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Date: July 24, 2020 at 15:46:13
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Public service announcement |
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TO ALL (WANNABE) PREDICTORS;
A valid earthquake prediction requires 3 things;
1) A testable location. Examples are lat/lon
bounded,
defined geographic location such as a state or
country.
2) A specific date range. Examples are a month and
year or a beginning and ending date including year,
month and dates.
3) A specific magnitude range. Example 6 to 7. 6+
will be considered 6.0 to 10.0
If anyone intends to make such predictions I can
tell you the probability of such predictions (given
the details).
This may not be of interest to you, but it should be
because high probability = low value.
Roger
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Responses:
[21590] [21592] [21593] [21595] [21596] [21567] [21570] [21581] [21582] [21571] [21569] |
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21590 |
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Date: July 31, 2020 at 14:01:07
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Public service announcement - revised |
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Attention all;
I've modified my program to make it easier to define
the area of interest.
The testable location is defined as a geographic
rectangle determined by north and south latitudes and
east and west longitudes.
The rest remains the same.
Roger
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Responses:
[21592] [21593] [21595] [21596] |
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21592 |
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Date: July 31, 2020 at 21:03:26
From: Skywise, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Public service announcement - revised |
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What would be nice is a map based system where you can
draw arbitrary polygons.... it's on my "someday" wish
list of programming projects. I've tried in the past
but my skills weren't up to snuff. I'm better now, but
time is lacking.
I'm currently learning some advanced processor tricks
and about to embark on learning how to do multi
threaded processing so I can do calculations using all
available processor cores. (The last is for other stuff
not quake related). And of course, I'm delving into
OpenGL real time 3D graphics again.
Basically, I'm trying to learn the skills I know I'll
need to make ideas like that map system actually work.
Brian
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Responses:
[21593] [21595] [21596] |
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21593 |
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Date: August 01, 2020 at 07:08:34
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Public service announcement - revised |
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Brian;
Arbitrary polygons are beyond me.
Determining in or out for each quake would be
difficult.
What I have in mind is a world map divided up
into 10 degree squares.
The user could select the square(s) of interest
with a mouse click.
Roger
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Responses:
[21595] [21596] |
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21595 |
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Date: August 02, 2020 at 09:34:20
From: Skywise, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Public service announcement - revised |
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There's algorithms for that. Takes a bit of math but it's
not terribly hard.
In fact, there's a wikipedia article on the problem.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point_in_polygon
One of that article's references is:
http://geomalgorithms.com/a03-_inclusion.html
Which has better explanations of the methodologies.
Brian
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Responses:
[21596] |
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21596 |
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Date: August 02, 2020 at 10:02:03
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Public service announcement - revised |
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Skywise;
Thanks but no thanks.
Probability calculations require looking at thousands
of quakes and it's hard enough determining which box
they're in. Adding in all the math involved for
polygons would wear out a hard drive in record time.
Roger
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Responses:
None |
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21567 |
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Date: July 25, 2020 at 08:56:35
From: karen, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Public service announcement |
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How are you so sure... Are you a Seismologists. So it
looks like you are the one that got rid of shan. I was
enjoying his predictions.
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Responses:
[21570] [21581] [21582] [21571] [21569] |
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21570 |
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Date: July 25, 2020 at 11:04:08
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Public service announcement |
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karen;
Yes in fact I was a seismologist with the NEIC in
Golden Co until I retired.
But no, I did not remove Shan. This is not my website.
Roger
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Responses:
[21581] [21582] [21571] |
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21581 |
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Date: July 26, 2020 at 18:18:16
From: Karen, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Ok. Thank u. |
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Dutchsinese must drive you insane then.
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Responses:
[21582] |
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21582 |
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Date: July 26, 2020 at 19:06:32
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Ok. Thank u. |
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Karen;
I don't bother with him.
Roger
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Responses:
None |
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21571 |
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Date: July 25, 2020 at 11:35:40
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Public service announcement |
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karen;
In fact I have a complete list of all his predictions,
converted to a machine readable format.
That's how I know he's doing far worse than chance.
Roger
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Responses:
None |
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21569 |
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Date: July 25, 2020 at 11:04:00
From: Alan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Public service announcement |
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Shan didn't accept scrutiny of his hokum predictions
His website is still up & running so nothing to stop you bizzarly 'enjoying' his
predictions.
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Responses:
None |
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