| Roll & Rock
|
[
Roll & Rock ] [ Main Menu ] |
|
|
|
21405 |
|
|
Date: May 16, 2020 at 17:30:47
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Input requested |
|
|
Attention predictors!
I need to know the minimum size for a predicted
location and the minimum length in days for a
predicted date.
My program uses the entire NEIC quake file
(877518)quakes currently) and all days from 1973 to
2020/1/1, (17066.75 days) so obviously a 1 degree
wide window 1 day long is gonna cause problems.
(I destroyed a 1Tb HDD that way)
So, what's reasonable?
Roger
|
|
|
|
|
Responses:
[21423] [21409] |
|
21423 |
|
|
Date: May 18, 2020 at 19:50:13
From: georg, [DNS_Address]
Subject: i have not idea but Coso seems destined to be a hot bed of activity (NT) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Responses:
None |
|
21409 |
|
|
Date: May 16, 2020 at 21:40:44
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Input requested |
|
|
Posted by EQF May 16, 2020
Hi Roger,
Based on my own observations and from years of discussions with other earthquake researchers I am of the opinion that what you appear to be hoping to do would likely be nearly impossible given the limited resources that you have to work with. This type of work would need to be done by some international foundation or a government agency.
There are two major problems among others.
First,
Every earthquake forecasting method appears to generate data that are different from every other forecasting method. There are already quite a few forecasting methods out there.
One method such as watching for Jet Stream Anomalies might provide highly accurate location information. But it might not be especially reliable for Time Window information. The expected earthquake might be a week away or a year away.
Another method such as watching for the buildup of strain in fault zones could be fairly good for Time Window information but not very good with pointing to the exact location of an expected earthquake.
Second,
The earthquakes themselves don't appear to be especially cooperative with regard to generating reliable precursor information. There might be large number of precursors before some earthquakes and very few or even none before others.
A POSSIBLE ANSWER
Step One
What my Earthquake Forecasting Breakthroughs Web page recommends is that some relatively simple organization be created that would have the task of just trying to collect and organize information regarding each of the many earthquake forecasting programs that presently exist.
The United Nations could create and run such an organization without much trouble or expense.
Step Two
This step would involve creating a much larger and better funded organization that would attempt to collect forecasting data from different sources, evaluate the data, and then circulate the best forecasts that they could using the available data.
Different groups and even governments have apparently attempted to do this over the years. But for a variety of reasons, they don't appear to have had much success to date.
Good luck anyway!
Regards,
EQF
|
|
|
|
|
Responses:
None |
|
[
Roll & Rock ] [ Main Menu ] |