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21365 |
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Date: April 17, 2020 at 10:06:07
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Shan evaluation |
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Hi all;
Here's my latest evaluation of Shan's "predictions"
In this effort I have skipped the probability
calculation as it tends to destroy expensive disk
drives.
I looked at all his predictions from Oct 20, 2019
to Jan 9, 2020, 272 in all.
Comparing them to the NEIC catalog of mag 4.5+
quakes
Shan had 124 hits and 148 misses.
A quake can satisfy only one prediction in this
program. Shan's predictions overlap, causing
multiple hits for a single quake.
Even this simple test shows how poorly he is doing.
124/148 is worse than coin toss results.
Roger
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Responses:
[21366] [21396] |
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21366 |
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Date: April 17, 2020 at 11:17:26
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Shan evaluation |
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If anyone is interested I'll send a copy of the
program output for examination.
Roger
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Responses:
[21396] |
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21396 |
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Date: May 12, 2020 at 18:43:28
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Shan evaluation |
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Another test involving 309 predictions shows the same
results; fewer hits than misses.
Shan needs to forget predictions and spend more time
with his family.
Roger
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Responses:
None |
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