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21386
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Earthquake Forecasting Data May 9, 2020
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Posted by EQF May 9, 2020 This report contains information for people who are interested determining when and where significant earthquakes might be about to occur. The report also contains information for people who are interested in earthquake triggering processes, earthquake research in general, and volcano eruptions. This report has been posted to this forum so that people are aware that these data exist and also so that discussions can be held regarding when and where expected approaching might be about to occur. This information is being gradually circulated by E-mail etc. to earthquake forecasters and researchers, and government and NGO officials around the world. Because of scheduling limitations, my responses to any posts could be delayed. Your post is not being ignored. The information in this report represents expressions of personal opinion. TABLE OF CONTENTS Earthquake Forecasting Data Earthquake Forecasting Example # 1 Earthquake Forecasting Example # 2 Earthquake Forecasting Example # 3 Earthquake Triggering Processes Recommendation EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING DATA The following is an indirect URL for a Web page that displays data related to what are believed to be electromagnetic energy field signals that are often associated with activities in earthquake fault zones where powerful earthquakes are getting ready to occur. http://www.freewebs.com/eq-forecasting/Data.html In some cases those data are pointing to the approach of volcano eruptions. However, at the present time it takes too much time to monitor volcano activities. Earthquake lists are easier to use. Their data can be largely automatically processed by computer programs that are being used to generate these earthquake precursor charts. Indirect URLs such as the one above are being used in part to keep spam robots away from the actual forecasting Web site. People who would like to see a direct URL for that Web page can use any major search engine and enter: Earthquake Research Data.html The direct URL should be at or near of the top of the list of URLs. The homepage for that Web page is: http://www.freewebs.com/eq-forecasting/index.html Or, for a direct URL, a search engine can be used with the following: Earthquake Research index.html That homepage contains direct links to all of the Web pages discussed in this report. Numerous detailed explanations and examples for how to make use of the data on that Data.html Web page can be found on the following Web pages: http://www.freewebs.com/eq-forecasting/Earthquake-Forecasting-Procedures.html http://www.freewebs.com/eq-forecasting/Table-Data.html Three of those examples will be discussed in this report. For a number of reasons, earthquake researchers should also be interested in the following Web pages: http://www.freewebs.com/eq-forecasting/Significant-Earthquakes.html That Web page contains lists of deadly earthquakes that have occurred since the start of 1973 plus the number of fatalities that were reportedly associated with each earthquake. The fatalities data are from news reports and from Wikipedia.org Web pages. The Wikipedia data lists are for earthquakes that reportedly claimed 10 or more lives. The Significant Earthquakes Web page lists every known earthquake that was reportedly responsible for the loss of even a single life going back to the start of 1973. It is believed to be the only resource on the Internet that contains that type of information. The Web page also contains information for earthquake researchers such as the locations of the sun and the moon in sky and their distance from the Earth when those deadly earthquake occurred, and Tide Generating Force data for those times. Some of the computer program code used to generate the sun and moon location data were created by Roger who posts notes to this forum. He worked with me and I believe with a celestial mechanics expert on that effort. I created the computer code related to the Tide Generating Force. http://www.freewebs.com/eq-forecasting/Breakthroughs.html That Web page could be regarded as an “Encyclopedia Of Earthquake Forecasting.” That Earthquake Forecasting Breakthroughs Web page discusses a number of different earthquake forecasting methods including ones associated with Earthquake Sensitive Humans, Animals, and even Plants. Yes, Earthquake Sensitive Plants! People have done research on them. At the present time, the best way to forecast earthquakes is probably to use the “Multiple Earthquake Precursors” approach as described on that Web page. http://www.freewebs.com/eq-forecasting/Earthquake-Projects.html That Web page discusses a number of proposed earthquake projects including the development of a Python language computer program that would generate highly advanced data regarding How earthquakes are being triggered. EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING EXAMPLE # 1 This first example explains how to determine that a significant earthquake could be approaching for some location on the planet. The picture file link attached to this report is for an example of a Data.html Web page Chart C earthquake forecasting data picture file that was generated around January 24, 2019.  The chart displays longitude data with 179 W longitude near the left side and 180 E longitude near the right side. As can be seen on the chart there are line peaks around 65 W that first appeared on the chart around October 6, 2018. They persisted at that longitude on that chart and subsequent Chart C picture charts until the following deadly Chile area earthquake occurred. 2019/01/20 01:32:51 30.07S 71.42W 53 6.7 "15km SSW of Coquimbo, Chile" NEIS data That earthquake reportedly resulted in 2 fatalities. It is believed that the persistence of those longitude peaks at 65 W for so many months was an accurate indicator that a significant earthquake was approaching for a fault zone located roughly along that longitude line. The difference between 65 W for the line peaks and 71 W for the actual earthquake has to do with how the computer programs that generate these charts do their calculations. With this first forecasting example, earthquake forecasters would regularly check those Chart C picture files to see if line peaks were remaining at some longitude line for a month or more. When that happened they would check for other earthquake precursor signals such as Jet Stream Anomalies and Total Electron Content signals that might be appearing somewhere along those line peak longitude lines. If no such earthquake precursor signals were detected along those line peak longitude lines then they could use other procedures discussed on my Web site to locate fault zones along other longitude lines where precursor signals might be appearing. The detection of the other types of precursor signals such as Jet Stream Anomalies could provide earthquake forecasters with exact location information for an expected approaching earthquake. When other types of precursor data are not available, other procedures and data available on my Web pages can at times be used to determine the exact location for an expected earthquake. More sophisticated computer programs could be developed and used to automatically link together various types of earthquake precursor data being generated by earthquake forecasters around the world. At the present time that has to be done manually. These particular electromagnetic earthquake precursor signals are being monitored from a single location in the United States. They appear to often be associated with high magnitude earthquakes occurring at any depth, and less powerful ones that are going to occur close to the surface. Those are two of the types of earthquakes that can be destructive should they occur near a populated area. This detection method works for earthquakes that can occur anywhere on the planet. The precursor signals appear to be stronger for U.S. and nearby location earthquakes. Signals associated with approaching volcano eruptions appear to be stronger than the earthquake signals. The EM Signals are also apparently affected by solar and geomagnetic storm activity. The storm activity can increase the strength of the signals. On various Web pages on my Web site there are lists of the days when these signals were detected going back to the start of 2001. Those lists make it possible for earthquake researchers to see if any of their own precursor signals were detected around the same time as when these signals were being detected. That appears to often be the case. As examples on my Web site pages show, other types of signals can be detected a few days before or after these signals are detected. It is believed that different fault zone processes are responsible for the generation of the various signals. That is why various types of signals can be offset from one another by a few days. In some cases, different types of precursor signals have apparently been detected within hours or even minutes of one another. EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING EXAMPLE # 2 This second example explains how earthquake forecasters could make use of these precursor signal data as support data when they are already expecting that an earthquake might be about to occur at a specific location. On my Web site’s Data.html Web page and on other Web pages at the site there are multiple window chart viewers. There are also two charts that display Chart C types of data for deadly earthquakes that have occurred going back to the start of 1973. Those charts show display the earthquakes sorted by date on one chart and by longitude on the other. Earthquake forecasters can display the latest Chart C in the top window of one of the chart viewers, and then display the Earthquakes Sorted By Longitude chart in a lower chart viewer window. They can focus the Longitude Sort chart on past earthquakes that occurred at whatever location they are interested in and then see if the chart data line peak shapes for past earthquakes at that location matched the line peak shapes displayed on the latest version of Chart C. When there are good matches between those two different window line peak shapes it can serve as an indicator that an earthquake might be approaching for the location that is of interest to them. EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING EXAMPLE # 3 This example can provide an indication that a significant aftershock might be about to occur for a powerful earthquake that has occurred in the relatively recent past at some location. As with Example # 2, Data.html Web page multiple window chart viewers would be used. But instead of the Significant Earthquakes Sorted By Longitude chart, the Significant Earthquakes Sorted By Date chart would be used. The Date Sort chart would be displayed in the chart viewer’s lower window. The focus would be on some relatively recent significant earthquake. The line peak shapes for that earthquake would then be compared with the line peak shapes displayed on the latest version of Chart C. If good matches were observed then that could serve as an indicator that an aftershock might be approaching for that past significant earthquake. Other examples of these forecasting procedures displayed on my Web pages show how data for individual earthquake precursor signals can be used as indicators that a significant aftershock might be about to occur for some earthquake. I have used those procedures myself over the years to prepare and then circulate earthquake warnings for significant aftershocks. During the 48 hours after a significant earthquake has occurred the precursor signals associated with this particular earthquake forecasting method can be “false positive” signals for a significant aftershock. However, after that time period they can then become reliable again. This might be the only forecasting method in existence that can recover so quickly after a significant earthquake occurs. Others forecasting methods might take weeks or months to recover and again begin generating accurate and reliable data. EARTHQUAKE TRIGGERING PROCESSES My data clearly show that at least our more powerful earthquakes are often being triggered by forces associated with the gravitational pulls of the sun and the moon on the crust of the Earth. To generate forecasting charts such as Chart C, my earthquake forecasting computer program processes sun and moon location data plus ocean tide and Solid Earth Tide crest and trough location data. Over the years, quite a few people have attempted to link the position of the moon in the sky, for example, with the approach of an earthquake. Unfortunately, simple calculations such as those will have only a limited amount of success. Data evaluations that actually show the links between sun and moon gravity forces and approaching earthquakes need to be far more sophisticated. My own forecasting program does millions and millions of probability calculations for each earthquake and each earthquake precursor signal. And those equations could be dramatically improved with some research. The science of Earthquake Triggering Processes is an interesting and important area of science where very little successful work has been done. I believe that my own theories and data are likely presently by far the most advanced of any that have ever been developed! Unfortunately, I myself don’t have enough free time available to be able to do much research in that area. It presently takes a considerable amount of my free time just to generate earthquake precursor data. RECOMMENDATION It would presently take too long for any one person to use my data to attempt to determine where significant earthquakes were going to occur around the world. Instead I recommend that people who live in areas where earthquakes are a threat focus on learning how to use my data to determine when a destructive earthquake might be about to occur where they themselves live and work. The Windows Paint program can be used with my Significant Earthquakes Charts Sorted By Date And By Longitude to create small charts that display data for past deadly earthquakes that occurred at specific locations such as in California, USA. Printed copies of those charts could then be generated. People would periodically check my Chart C picture charts to see if the latest line peak longitude data were similar in shape to the line peak shapes for deadly earthquakes that occurred in the past where they themselves live and work. Then when matches like that were seen, people could go looking around for local earthquake precursors such as fresh cracks in building foundations, unusual lights on the horizon, earthquake clouds, unexpected well water level changes, and unusual behavior by pet, farm, and wild animals. They could serve as invaluable warnings that a powerful earthquake might be approaching. Regards to all, EQF |
21387
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Web page update
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The Significant Earthquakes Web page on my Web site was just updated to include information regarding a recent earthquake in Iran that reportedly claimed several lives. 2020/05/07 20:18:22 35.73N 52.04E 10 4.6 "2km WNW of Damavand, Iran" NEIS Data |
21388
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Comments for Mr. Bopp
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Posted by EQF May 9, 2020 Hi Mr. Bopp and all, Over the years I have developed an extensive list of international contacts in the fields of earthquake forecasting and earthquake research. If comments posted to this forum remain moderately civilized then I plan to start telling quite a few of those people that they might want to watch the forum for interesting and helpful information regarding earthquake forecasting. It takes too much time to try to update my Web pages with comments. Forums such as this one are a lot easier to use. Finally, One of the main reasons to post these notes is to get other people's comments regarding where they believe my latest earthquake forecasting data might be pointing. Based on discussions with other forecasting personnel, I suspect that the most recent data might be linked with a volcano that has been erupting in the Japan area. Unfortunately, those data also match a recent earthquake that got quite a few people upset. Luckily there were no fatalities. I hope that this won't be a powerful aftershock for that earthquake. Regards to all, EQF |
21392
From: Skywise, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Comments for Mr. Bopp
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If comments posted to this forum remain moderately civilized... Just don't forget that this is Bopp's forum. Not yours. His rules. Not yours. You can start by remembering that you don't get to dictate who gets to post here, who gets to reply to you, and what they are allowed to say to you. Brian |
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21389
From: mr bopp, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Comments for Mr. Bopp
| it seems kind of lazy to piggyback your stuff on this forum...there are plenty of free forum scripts out there you could use on your own site...but be that is it may....hopefully any new people you direct here will be civil and can abide by the few rules that govern this site...see the FAQ page for more info... |
21390
From: EQF, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Comments for Mr. Bopp
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From EQF May 9, 2020 The preliminary posts for this effort are done. It now becomes a matter of conversation. What future posts will mostly say is: "The data on my Web site indicate that an earthquake or volcano eruption is likely approaching. Where do people think it might occur?" That input from multiple parties such as Shan and others is vitally important to this type of effort. Most other forecasters will simply read the posts and send me information by E-mail. Then I will try to report what I can. I would not expect to see very many people post notes on their own. There are no so many earthquake forecasting programs in existence that it would probably be impossible for anyone to even to keep track of them all. Hopefully, these posts will help with getting things a little better organized. Time will tell. Regards, EQF |
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[21391]
21391
From: mr bopp, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Comments for Mr. Bopp
| ayep, time will tell... |
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