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21277
From: Alan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Question to Shan re. OWEN FRACTURE ZONE
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Shan just noticed you have a prediction for: PREDICTION Dt. 15th to 20th March 2020: OWEN FRACTURE ZONE (14.34 N 55.91E) 4~5+M may occur between 19th March to 8th April 2020. http://earthquake.itgo.com/today.htm Looked where it was and noticed > http://ds.iris.edu/seismon/eventlist/index.phtml?region=Indian_Ocean 20-MAR-2020 07:05:57 OWEN FRACTURE ZONE REGION 14.17 56.82 4.8 Can you clarify if you made your prediction before or after the 4.8 above quake? as it's not clear from your prediction date convention. |
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21278
From: Skywise, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Question to Shan re. OWEN FRACTURE ZONE
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I have been occasionally saving copies of his posted predictions for future analysis and I happen to have saved a copy of his page from yesterday, 3-19-20. That block of predictions listed as being dated 15th to 20th was NOT there. Those predictions appeared sometime after 17:41 UTC March 19, 2020. That's the time stamp on my saved file. Brian |
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21280
From: Alan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Question to Shan re. OWEN FRACTURE ZONE
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Here's a screenshot of Shan's page from when I noticed it Just seemed odd, when checking it against recent quakes on record even accounting for time zones Last year it was rumbling a 4-5m about every couple of months in the Owen Zone then it's been quiet last couple of months till that 4.8. So on paper, by the prediction start date window paremeters, that would have been classed as a hit? 
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21284
From: Skywise, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Question to Shan re. OWEN FRACTURE ZONE
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If you look at the top left of the image, "PREDICTION Dt. 15th to 20th March 2020:" Which I take to mean these predictions were made on these dates, inclusive. But if the predictions weren't posted until the end of that period, ie the 20th, then it's hard to say if a particular prediction was made, say, on the 15th, for a quake that occured on the 16th. To put it bluntly, how do we know Shan didn't predict it until AFTER the quake actually occurred? We don't. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt as long as he heeds some advice. (Separate post) However, this puts a real kink in any sort of evaluation of his historical record. It will require that only quakes occurring on dates AFTER the last day of his posted "PREDICTION Dt." can be considered. This will unfortunately, possibly, eliminate quakes that may give him valid hits. Brian |
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21287
From: Steven, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Question to Shan re. OWEN FRACTURE ZONE
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How about his thousands of other predictions that are clearly posted ahead of the quake? He may or may not have beat the buzzer this time. Maybe there is a timestamp ap he can get that will eliminate future ambiguity. He could paste it in an Email to himself , that would give timestamp. Local time India does run 5 and a half hours ahead of UTC. Time should always have a qualifier like UTC, EST EDT PST etc. Sometimes the predictors feet should be held to the fire so it doesn't turn into a slop fest. One guy predicted for Oklahoma and claimed a hit when a 4 occurred off California. |
21289
From: Skywise, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Question to Shan re. OWEN FRACTURE ZONE
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Emailing yourself doesn't help. How do others authenticate the email? I could forward you an email I claimed to have emailed to myself. It's not hard at that point for me to edit the time stamp in the forwarded headers. I recall this type of discussion coming up many years ago over on the sci.geo.earthquakes usenet group. The problem is authentication of the headers. The best option is a 3rd party email list, because all recipients can authenticate the arrival time independently based on the time stamps of each of their own email providers. Even if a predictor or evaluator set it up and administrated it, as long as it was a 3rd party service hosting it, all should be good. Heck, it could even be something like a yahoo or facebook group. The next best option for posting a prediction is to post it to a 3rd party website. Here for example. The only caveat is trusting the host. I would trust Bopp for this. I don't think he has the time or the interest in faking posting dates. Posting to usenet was dismissed because it's possible to forge the headers. It was actually done as proof. To be blunt, posting to your own website doesn't mean much when it comes to authentication. Anyone can post anything to their own website. But again, I'm not going so far as to accuse Shan of cheating like this. I'll take it as an honest mistake, one in which he didn't realize the implications. I offer my thoughts purely as constructive criticism apart from my opinion on his predictive ability. It is in the interest of all parties that everyone be transparent with integrity. Brian |
21293
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Question to Shan re. OWEN FRACTURE ZONE
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Skywise; I have/had a website for exactly that purpose. I haven't checked it recently because it wasn't being used. Roger |
21295
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Question to Shan re. OWEN FRACTURE ZONE
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Skywise; The website is still up and running. The problem is that I don't remember the password and my email has changed. It's with Weebly and I don't find any way to get in touch with anyone to fix it. Roger |
21309
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Question to Shan re. OWEN FRACTURE ZONE
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Finally found Weebly support. They'll reactivate it for me once they find it. Roger |
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[21310]
21310
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Prediction website
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The old website is https://quakepredictions.weebly.com/ if anyone is interested. Roger |
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None
21291
From: Steven, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Question to Shan re. OWEN FRACTURE ZONE
| very good, agreed. |
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None
21286
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Question to Shan re. OWEN FRACTURE ZONE
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Skywise; I haven't noticed that happening in the past but it doesn't matter. Even if he has a few bogus predictions in the list his score is still way below chance. Roger |
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21292
From: Steven, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Question to Shan re. OWEN FRACTURE ZONE
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Roger that is because you don't understand probability. It's not Shan's fault if you don't know what you are doing. |
21294
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Question to Shan re. OWEN FRACTURE ZONE
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Steven; Well then why don't you explain it to me? Roger |
21296
From: Steven, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Question to Shan re. OWEN FRACTURE ZONE
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Roger I have a dozen times ad nauseum Quake Zone is 1/3rd of the Earth This yeilds 43,200 trapazoidal degrees. So to predict a quake within one of those of say moderate or better would be 1 :43,200 odds within +/- 1 degree = 1:10,800 +/- 2 degrees = 1:2700 +/- 3 degrees = 1:1200 odds Possibilities create probabilities. You say "Shan does no better than chance " Roger don't Bogart that Bong pass it around amigo. |
21297
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Question to Shan re. OWEN FRACTURE ZONE
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Steven; Your mistake is in assuming that all those boxes have equal probability. They don't. Some have no probability, some have very high probability. It matters. Roger |
21305
From: Steven, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Oh When will his FRACTURED mind get well
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Roger chop my numbers in half if you like, the odds are still very much stacked against the predictor. +/-3ds would be 1:600 odds +/-2ds would be 1:1350 odds against the predictor. No better than chance? Someone needs to put down the crack pipe. Lets not even mention compound odds that would make Shan's odds beyond the Moon. Your dog and pony show lasted a quarter of a century and you fooled a lot people including yourself. You're entitled to your opinion,I guess you can't help it if you're wrong. |
21308
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Oh When will his FRACTURED mind get well
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Steven; You're not factoring in probability. How many boxes is not the odds, it's how many hits in the past that counts. I'm working on a program to demonstrate this. I have the 13 locations that have had the most hits in the past. I'll use them to make "predictions" like Shan does. I should have few misses and LOTS of hits. All worthless of course. Roger |
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21316
From: Steven, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Oh When will his FRACTURED mind get well
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Hi Roger, have fun with it. "All worthless of course." Well we finally agree on something. |
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21279
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Question to Shan re. OWEN FRACTURE ZONE
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Brian; I'm surprised. I never thought Shan would stoop to cheating. Roger |
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