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21198 |
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Date: March 11, 2020 at 10:53:14
From: Steven, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Prediction |
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You can sift quakes in the catalog until the cows come home. But it has nothing to do with evaluating the rarity of a prediction.
Only possibilities can determine the odds not histories.
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21199 |
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Date: March 11, 2020 at 13:32:13
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Prediction |
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Steven;
Another math illiterate I see.
Only histories will give you possibilities.
To know how many squares there are tells you nothing.
They are not equally possible or probable.
Roger
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21202 |
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Date: March 11, 2020 at 14:57:30
From: Steven, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Prediction |
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Hi Roger hope you are doing well.
Roger wrote
" Another math illiterate I see.
Only histories will give you possibilities.
To know how many squares there are tells you nothing.
They are not equally possible or probable.
Roger "
_______________________________________________________
THATS LIKE SAY THE SLOTS ON A ROULETTE WHEEL ARE IRRELEVANT . Histories of roulette spins do not predict outcome but the amount of slots do determine odds.
Predictions and quakes are different.
If the catalog gave possibilities you'd revive the dead GAP Theory and be the quake king.
The amount of squares/trapezoids do dictate odds.
There are some sterile areas that don't quake at these times so Shan's 1:1200 odds may only be 1:600 which is a tremendous longshot bet only the lottery has worse odds. A Casino with such odds would go out of business in 10 minutes because no one would be stupid enough to bet against 600 to one odds.
Shan beats those odds everyday.
You and Brian insisting that Shan did worse than chance
definitely broke the needle on the bullshit meter.
but thanks for the laugh.
Some of the readership will agree with you others might see it my way. I doubt any predictors anywhere would be inclined to agree with you.
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Responses:
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21204 |
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Date: March 11, 2020 at 16:43:35
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Prediction |
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Steven;
You really don't understand the situation.
A roulette wheel has a fixed number of slots and
since the ball can end up anywhere the odds are
equal.
Quakes happen in seismic zones which makes the odds
high and never (so far) happen in other areas which
makes the odds very low.
Shan and you predict for active areas where hits are
frequent but the odds are so high that the score for
a hit is very low and the penalty for missing is
very high. The result is that he does worse than
chance.
Roger
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Date: March 11, 2020 at 21:20:18
From: Shan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Prediction |
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In other sense, practically speaking, if prediction came
true at a particular time frame many people were
saved their life though the strong event took place near
active area where mild and moderate hits are frequent,
and if the prediction was missing does not loose anything
but people pass their days with proper alert. That's all.
So we need not worry about simple Roger's penalty. :-)
Shan
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21207 |
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Date: March 12, 2020 at 06:28:25
From: Steven, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Prediction |
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Yes right, the severe penalty of a miss is from his imagination. It does serve the devaluators agenda very well.
In true evaluation of prediction, a miss will slightly lower the predictors score.
If someone has established a good track record that more important than the number crunching.
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Responses:
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21208 |
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Date: March 12, 2020 at 06:56:30
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Prediction |
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Steven;
Let's put it this way; if the chances of a hit are 99%
and you miss it's pretty much proof you don't know
what you are doing.
Roger
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21209 |
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Date: March 12, 2020 at 10:02:47
From: Shan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Prediction |
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Wrong. If the 'evaluator' decided the
prediction of 99% chances, then there is
no need for predictors. Actually the
root cause of the problem arising out of
difficulties faced by the predictors does
not understand by the 'evaluators' or by
the external forces compelled to do so.
Shan
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21211 |
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Date: March 12, 2020 at 14:03:19
From: Steven, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Prediction |
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Exactly, if quakes were 99% certain then even Roger could predict them, maybe.
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21210 |
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Date: March 12, 2020 at 10:09:22
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Prediction |
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Shan;
That being the case, why do you make them?
Failing to predict doesn't count against you.
Roger
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21212 |
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Date: March 12, 2020 at 17:43:56
From: Shan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Prediction |
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Roger,
Neither the'evaluators' having the power
of such prediction nor 'such external
forces' where not ready to develop the
method, why I bother for such urgency?
Let it go as it is.
Shan
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21213 |
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Date: March 12, 2020 at 18:25:27
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Prediction |
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Shan;
I don't know why you feel compelled to make these
predictions. They serve no purpose; small aftershocks
at best.
Now if you were predicting mag 6+ reliably I'd be on
your side.
Roger
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21214 |
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Date: March 12, 2020 at 21:03:47
From: Shan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Prediction |
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Roger,
Funny argument. Do you know why the
cricket team practicing before a real
match, why the train/flight has a free
trial before it's launching...and etc.,
so on..? Please note that I have
predicted so many 6 or even 8+ in my
whole carrier.
Shan
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Responses:
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21215 |
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Date: March 12, 2020 at 21:11:57
From: Roger Hunter, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Prediction |
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Shan;
Yes but comparatively few and how many were hits?
Roger
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21216 |
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Date: March 12, 2020 at 21:16:18
From: Shan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Prediction |
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Roger,
Countless.. it's duty of the sincere and
study evaluator.
Shan
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Responses:
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