Forget the polls? Prediction fever takes over Trump vs. Harris 2024
election
Who is going to win the 2024 presidential race?
That question is vexing the country as all types of prognosticators —
whether they be pollsters, academics or international odds-makers —
advertise their data and intuition to voters eager for a peek into a crystal
ball predicting either a future Kamala Harris or Donald Trump
administration.
No one knows what will happen on Nov. 5 as tens of millions of Americans
have already cast theirballots as part of early voting and with tens of
millions more still yet to vote their preference for who should lead the
nation for the next four years.
But the country is anxious about the outcome amid an increasingly bitter
political divide.
More than 7 out of 10 U.S. adults say the nation's future, its economy and
politics are a "significant source of stress" personally, according to a
report released this month by the American Psychological Association.
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"It shouldn't be passive. It shouldn't be something that people are not
speculating on because it's a really big deal and this election in particular
is critical," said Imani Cherry, a professor of media and public affairs at
George Washington University.
Vice President Kamala Harris, left, and former President Donald Trump,
right.
"There are a number of very, very, very important issues front of mind for
millions and millions of people," Cherry added.
As the unprecedented election between Harris and Trump comes to a
close, experts say it is irresponsible for political observers to foretell a
winner.
"Polling is not predictive. It's a snapshot in time," Republican pollster
Robert Blizzard said. "My job isn’t to try and predict a result, my job is to
use polling to help my candidate or client’s cause or issue be successful."
The 50-50 contest has been largely unmoved by major news events,
including President Joe Biden's summertime exit, persistent economic
woes, Harris' historic bid and two assassination attempts against Trump.
Those who spoke with USA TODAY said any prediction on Trump or Harris
winning the White House will be riddled with flaws thanks to the deluge of
polling in the final days, coupled with partisan surveys aimed at
influencing the base, sports bettors looking to make a buck, and
prediction models using firms with dubious backgrounds.
Others point out how there has been a noticeable lack of quality swing-
state surveys that typically populate the final weekends of a general
election, while some say it might be time for newsrooms to reconsider
leaning on polling stories altogether.
"People need to get off the poll-er coaster. They need to step back from it
because people are gaming it and they're playing in our faces," said
Democratic pollster Cornell Belcher, who worked on both of Barack
Obama presidential campaigns in 2008 and 2012.
"It is not the job of a poll or pollsters to tell the future, because we can't,"
he added.
Predicting the horse race's winner
A poll worker directs residents for early voting on October 17, 2024 in
Hendersonville, North Carolina.
The U.S. hasn't had a double-digit blowout White House race since 1984
when GOP incumbent President Ronald Reagan coasted to victory by
winning 49 out of 50 states against Democratic challenger Walter
Mondale.
Elections have been closer ever since, including the races in 2000 and
2016 where the Democrat won the popular vote but fell short in the
Electoral College. Add to the mix a hyper-competitive media landscape
and now in 2024 a cottage industry of pollsters, pundits and even
gamblers who seek to give each side - and nervous undecided voters - a
preview of what will happen.
Chief among them is FiveThirtyEight, which since 2008 has become the
most popular database that strategists, news organizations and average
viewers often cite in the horse race for the most powerful job on the
planet. It utilizes a complex statistical model on potential outcomes and
currently favors Trump, who wins 51 out of 100 simulations.
But critics say people shouldn't read too much into these models given
they often use polling firms with different ratings of accuracy.
FiveThirtyEight, for example, reminds its audience how Harris once held a
higher probability of winning weeks ago and that it could change if "a few
good polls" show up for the incumbent vice president.
The site notes how when the chance of winning hovers in the 50s it is a
"little better than a coin flip for the leading candidate," and its founder,
Nate Silver, penned a New York Times op-ed saying, "50-50 is the only
responsible forecast" during this cycle.
And the models aren't always right, such as in the 2012 election, when
then-President Obama defied the trajectory to defeat his Republican
challenger Mitt Romney. Trump similarly overcame forecasts that
predicted Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton would win in 2016. Many
firms also undercounted his performance in 2020.
What's troubling for experts in the final stretch of the 2024 race is how
predictive models could be influenced by partisan efforts to bulk up a
candidate's polling averages, which can be dicey in the era of
misinformation as herds of supporters are likely to assume their candidate
should win based on polling trends or early voting data.
The New Republic reported earlier this month about a flood of Trump-
aligned polls being released over the summer with the goal of impacting
changing election forecasts in his favor.
For Trump supporters, especially, there is a worry that his loss may ignite
a reaction similar to the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the Capitol should the former
president lose.
Blizzard, the GOP pollster, said he hasn't conducted any surveys for the
Trump campaign this year but he's certain there are firms on both sides of
the partisan divide who only spotlight data showing their side doing well
while burying the bad polls.
"If I don’t know the pollster, meaning if they don’t have actual clients, a
clear track record or only do horse race polling, I'm less likely to even care
about their numbers," he said.
Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump
acknowledges supporters after speaking at a campaign rally at the
Greensboro Coliseum on October 22, 2024 in Greensboro, North Carolina.
Most campaign polling is over at this point in the race, Blizzard said, and
legitimate firms have shifted to using their data to make decisions about
advertising and other resource allocation.
What experts find more worrisome than bad actors looking to manipulate
the narrative is how few people understand that a point or two lead is a
statistical tie that can go either way.
Cheery, the media and public affairs professor, said the press plays a
significant role in this conversation because polling stories are easier to
feed audiences.
She said more emphasis is needed on the consequences of Harris and
Trump's policy differences.
Rather than making predictions, Cheery said she focuses her students on
grassroots conversations among voters about the stakes of the White
House race and the ways people can be engaged in the democratic
process over entertainment-styled coverage about who will win.
"It's not that I don't think polls have a place in this political discourse, but
oftentimes they are so myopic," she said. "Especially when we're really
talking about numerous variables that are going to come into play in
people's choices and for people who may say, 'all the polls said (Trump)
was going to win, and he didn't—it was rigged.'"
'An iffy and dangerous business'
HENDERSONVILLE, NORTH CAROLINA - OCTOBER 17: Poll workers assist
voters as they check in for early voting and receive ballots on October 17,
2024 in Hendersonville, North Carolina. Several counties effected by
Hurricane Helene saw a large turnout of residents for the first day of early
voting in Western North Carolina. (Photo by Melissa Sue Gerrits/Getty
Images)
About 34 million Americans have voted early already in 2024, with
Democrats holding a slight edge, according to the University of Florida
Election Lab, which tracks the numbers daily.
It shows roughly 41% of votes cast have come from registered Democrats,
versus 35% from registered Republicans, for instance. But those who
have measured the American voter's mindsets for years say there are
perils with diving too deep into early voting data as well.
For starters, much of the early voting data is based upon states where
people register by party. Another caveat is that the baseline comparison is
the 2020 election, when ballot access was expanded for the first time in
response to the global COVID-19 pandemic.
Cathy J. Cohen, a political science professor at the University of Chicago,
has been surveying Black and Hispanic voters for months as part of
GenForward, a youth project at the college.
The average American doesn't realize the limitations or nuances of polling
data, she said, including sample size, demographic representation and
how the survey's questions are worded and ordered. All impact each
survey's result, Cohen said.
"There's a big difference and a big gap between people answering a
survey and people putting on their coat, getting in a car, taking the bus,
waiting in line and making sure they're registered to cast a vote," Cohen
said.
Instead of paying attention to possible outcomes, political observers
should focus on trends across an election cycle. But that hasn't stopped
other groups and outfits from filling that void as more established firms
appear to be taking a step back in 2024.
Many offshore betting markets, such as Polymarket, the world's largest
crypto trading platform, have been cited by Trump and his allies - with
predictions that the Republican will win a second, non-consecutive term
as president. One French trader reportedly bet a total of $28 million
across four different accounts on the GOP nominee returning to power.
Joshua Barton, a spokesman for BetOnline.ag, said betting on U.S.
elections on everything from who will win to turnout levels has
skyrocketed in popularity over the past decade.
"As far as the amount wagered, it will eclipse what the Super Bowl does
because there are so many big bettors that come in they want a stake on
who's going to win this election," Barton said in an interview.
Some may never wager on anything else for another four years, he said,
but participants want to have action on the outcome.
It's still murky how much these and other yardsticks - such as the stock
market's levels ahead of presidential elections - can predict who might
prevail between Trump and Harris. But it concerns Cohen and other
academic experts who say polling should be more about identifying how
Americans are thinking, rather than fortune-telling or money-making.
"They can be used to give some sense of a prediction, but I would be leery
of weighting too much of our sense of what's going to happen based on
polls," she said.
"It's an iffy, dangerous business when you're talking about human
behavior."
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