443105
From: old timer, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Harris sees troubling signs in latest New York Times/Siena poll
URL: Harris sees troubling signs in latest New York Times/Siena poll
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Harris sees troubling signs in latest New York Times/Siena poll BY ALEX GANGITANO - 10/25/24 10:01 AM ET The final national poll before Election Day from The New York Times and Siena College has some troubling signs for Vice President Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee. The poll finds Harris deadlocked with former President Trump, the GOP nominee, after she led him in an earlier version of the poll taken in October by 3 percentage points. The new poll is sparking talk that Harris could actually lose the popular vote to Trump. The Democratic ticket has won the popular vote in the last four elections, and seven of the last eight races, though two of those battles in 1992 and 1996 included strong third-party showings by the independent candidate Ross Perot. Much of the talk surrounding the 2024 race has been about the chances of Harris winning the popular vote but losing the Electoral College to Trump, given the tightness of polling in seven key swing states. But the New York Times poll suggests Harris is not building up the type of huge lead in the popular vote that might suggest she would also win the closely fought swing states. Both candidates received 48 percent of the popular vote in the poll. In early October, Harris had a lead of 49 percent to 46 percent over Trump. The change in polling is within the margin of error. In another bad sign for Harris, just 28 percent of respondents said the U.S. as a country was headed in the right direction. Given that Harris is the incumbent vice president and such numbers are difficult for a sitting administration to overcome, that is a tough number for her. Still, there are some good signs for Harris in the Times polling as well. The economy remains the biggest issue in this election to voters, and Harris is narrowing the gap with Trump on whom they see as the better candidate to handle it. Trump’s edge over Harris on that topic shrunk to 6 percentage points; he had a 13-point lead over her in last month’s New York Times/Siena College poll. Forty-eight percent of voters view Harris favorably, according to the poll, which is up 2 percentage points from the time President Biden dropped out of the race and was replaced by his vice president. Trump is also viewed favorably by 48 percent, up a percentage point over the same time. Harris has a huge lead over Trump among female voters in the poll, winning 54 percent to Trump’s 42 percent, but Trump has an even larger lead among male voters, 55 percent to 41 percent. Fifteen percent of respondents said immigration, Trump’s signature issue, is the most important issue to them in the election, up from 12 percent in the last poll. Trump led Harris by 11 points when asked whom voters trust on immigration. While Biden, 81, was pushed out of the presidential race in part over concerns about his age and fitness for office, just 41 percent of voters think Trump, who is 78, is too old to be president. That’s the same result as the July poll. Additionally, the poll found that 15 percent of voters have not fully decided for whom they will vote. Among that group, Harris had an edge with 42 percent of voters, compared to Trump’s 32 percent of voters. The poll was conducted Oct. 20-23 with 2,516 voters nationwide. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points. Over the last several weeks, worries among Democrats have increased amid a series of polls that have suggested the presidential race is moving toward Trump. With just more than a week to go before Election Day, the contest continues to hinge on the states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina. Polling between the two candidates in all seven states remains incredibly tight, suggesting the race could be one of the closest in American history. Harris has put much of her efforts into holding on to the “blue wall” states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. If she sweeps those states, she is likely to win the Electoral College regardless of what happens in the other four battlegrounds. In the polling averages kept by The Hill and Decision Desk HQ, Trump leads Harris by less than half a percentage point in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, while Michigan is a tie. Trump leads by a tenth of a percentage point in those averages for Nevada, but has a lead of more than a percentage point in the other three big swing states of Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina. |
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443218
From: old timer, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Harris sees troubling signs in latest New York Times/Siena poll
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while all the talk has been about bopp’s strange comments on new york state i was surprised no one mentioned this “While Biden, 81, was pushed out of the presidential race in part over concerns about his age and fitness for office, just 41 percent of voters think Trump, who is 78, is too old to be president. That’s the same result as the July poll.” |
443234
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Harris sees troubling signs in latest New York Times/Siena poll
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LOL "all" the talk (no, just you). Remember, I don't trust the polls anyway. "While Biden..pushed out.." No, he stepped down. The rest is YOUR framing. Yes, Trump is too old to be president, as well as to demented, stupid and fascistic. |
443238
From: old timer, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Harris sees troubling signs in latest New York Times/Siena poll
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nope, not my framing, the author of thehill article wrote biden was pushed out and it’s true. why do you think only 41% of voters think trump is too old? that is the same 41% that thought he was too old back in july when Biden was pushed out for being too old and incapable. oddly the anyone but trump crowd turns out to be about 41% |
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443239
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Harris sees troubling signs in latest New York Times/Siena poll
URL: http://earthboppin.net/talkshop/national/messages/443237.html
| See previous post. |
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443176
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Harris sees troubling signs in latest New York Times/Siena poll
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...moving on.. at least 1/3 of Americans (who intend to vote) have voted. It's going to be whatever it's going to be now. We'll know in less than 2 weeks. Everthing else is crystal ball gazing and wishes. |
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443124
From: ryan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Harris sees troubling signs in latest New York Times/Siena poll
| lol...poll i saw yesterday had her up by 19 points... |
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443125
From: akira, [DNS_Address]
Subject: which poll?(NT)
| (NT) |
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443137
From: ao, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Harris leading Trump by 19 points in New York state survey
URL: The poll shows Harris with a 58% to 39% lead among likely voters in the Empire State
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Vice President Harris has a double-digit edge over former President Trump in the state of New York, according to a new survey. The poll, released Tuesday by Siena College, shows Harris with a 19-point lead over the former president, 58 percent to 39 percent, among likely voters in the Empire State. Her lead marks a 6-point increase from September. When other candidates were added, the vice president maintains a 17-point lead over Trump, 54 percent to 37 percent, according to the latest survey. When broken down by issue, the state’s likely voters trusted Harris more on the issues of democracy, 58 percent to 38 percent, and abortion, 64 percent to 31 percent. The respondents also said the vice president would handle immigration better than her Republican counterpart, 50 percent to 46 percent, the poll found. On the economy, a top issue ahead of November, she bested Trump with 52 percent support to 46 percent, the data shows. The former president did have a razor-thin lead among independent voters in New York, garnering 47 percent support to Harris’s 46 percent. In terms of favorability, the Democratic nominee garnered 54 percent favorability, compared to 43 percent who said she was unfavorable. Respondents rated Trump as 38 percent favorable to 60 percent unfavorable, according to the survey. President Biden won New York in 2020 by nearly 2 million votes against Trump. Former President Reagan was the last Republican candidate to win the state, in 1984. With the election less than two weeks away, Harris currently leads Trump 48.6 percent to 47.7 percent in the state, according to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s aggregate of polls. The Siena College poll was conducted Oct. 13-17 among 872 likely voters in New York. The margin of error is 4.2 percentage points. |
443222
From: ryan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Harris leading Trump by 19 points in New York state survey
| noted that ot did not comment on this fact... |
443225
From: old timer, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Harris leading Trump by 19 points in New York state survey
|
i’ve commented several times on the absurdness of a poll in a state that hasn’t voted republican in 40 years. did you 2 lame brains confuse a new york times poll with a poll of new york state voters?? |
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443226
From: ryan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Harris leading Trump by 19 points in New York state survey
| yeah i confused it with something that mattered, like not a national poll...lol... |
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443149
From: akira, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Harris leading Trump by 19 points in New York state survey
| yeah shocking, isn't it? |
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443129
From: ryan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: which poll?
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here's one i easily found... https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com › polls › president-general › 2024 › new-york New York : President: general election : 2024 Polls - FiveThirtyEight 2 days ago See the latest polling averages for the 2024 presidential election in New York, where Harris leads Trump by 14 percentage points. |
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443132
From: akira, [DNS_Address]
Subject: 538 currently shows Harris leading Trump by less than 2%
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and that's a national poll, as opposed to swing state polls. so it's virtually meaningless. Swing states will determine the race. Not sure what you're referring to. |
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443136
From: ryan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: 538 currently shows Harris leading Trump by less than 2%
URL: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/new-york/
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you need to check their website...not sure what that poll you are referring to is all about...doesn't seem the number would change by 17% in one week...suspicious is the word that comes to mind Harris wins more than 99 times out of 100 in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election. Trump wins less than 1 time out of 100. their last siena college poll on the 538 site: Oct. 13-17 Siena College Harris 54% Trump 37% Harris +17 |
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443147
From: akira, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: 538 currently shows Harris leading Trump by less than 2%
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I did & I linked to it. You might want to read your own links more carefully. "Who Is Favored To Win New York's 28 Electoral Votes?" Unfortunately New York's numbers aren't shared nationally. |
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443193
From: old timer, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: 538 currently shows Harris leading Trump by less than 2%
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people that watch the tv talking heads rarely read carefully. anyone who thinks either candidate is up by 19 points is not paying attention. if it makes him feel better i hear kamala also has a big lead in california |
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443208
From: akira, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: 538 currently shows Harris leading Trump by less than 2%
| maybe he's yanking chains? Either that or I'm a little worried about him.. |
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443212
From: old timer, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: 538 currently shows Harris leading Trump by less than 2%
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possibly just trolling, though part of it is he gets in such a rush to respond to me he makes these mistakes. hell, i read trump is leading the race by more than 20 points! wow, of course that is just talking about the dakotas lol |
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443202
From: ryan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: 538 currently shows Harris leading Trump by less than 2%
| except i backed it up...quit lying... |
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443205
From: old timer, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: 538 currently shows Harris leading Trump by less than 2%
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dude, you backed it up by finding a poll from a blue state that hasn’t voted republican since reagan. that’s a damned good example of cherry picking when everyone is looking at national and swing state polls |
443215
From: ryan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: 538 currently shows Harris leading Trump by less than 2%
| the discussion was about the race in ny...try to keep up... |
443217
From: old timer, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: 538 currently shows Harris leading Trump by less than 2%
|
no, the discussion was about a new york times/siena poll, a national poll. you were the only one talking about kamala’s huge lead in liberal new york state where a republican hasn’t won in 40 years |
443221
From: ryan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: 538 currently shows Harris leading Trump by less than 2%
| i posted the link to the 538 site and their ny polling...try to keep up... |
443223
From: old timer, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: 538 currently shows Harris leading Trump by less than 2%
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yes, but why did you do that? what does polling in the state of new york have to do with anything? |
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443224
From: ryan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: 538 currently shows Harris leading Trump by less than 2%
| seemed important to point that out...the national polling means nothing... |
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443201
From: akira, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: 538 currently shows Harris leading Trump by less than 2%
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yeah, forget about the swing states, ny & ca have decided the election. why even bother having an election at this point? |
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443214
From: ryan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: 538 currently shows Harris leading Trump by less than 2%
| no different than texas and florida...although that may change this year... |
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443196
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: 538 currently shows Harris leading Trump by less than 2%
|
That she has a big lead in California is a "duh". California will go blue, as it has for many years now. I don't see anything that would change that this time. What is different is the number of congressional races in "swing districts" in California that are close and swingable. That is where California will come into play (and new york, too). California has mail in voting, early voting, drop box voting as well as regular day of voting polling places. The election has already started here. Mailed our ballots in a couple of weeks ago (three of us in this house). Got notification of receipt from the SOS (ballot trax) that they have all been recieved and no issues. I have heard from other friends and family in the state that they have either used drop boxes or mail to send theirs in already, as well. Most have made up their minds here. There will be a wave of last minute walk ins on election day, but I think (just a theory/opinion) that those will be the minority of votes cast instead of the majority. Now, campaigns are going for whatever ballots have not been cast yet with limited persuasion power for those last few uncast ballots. |
443200
From: old timer, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: 538 currently shows Harris leading Trump by less than 2%
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“That she has a big lead in California is a "duh".” lol same for new york. do you often struggle with sarcasm? |
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443204
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: 538 currently shows Harris leading Trump by less than 2%
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no, just didn't think you were smart enough to exhibit it so took you at face value (the safe bet) |
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443150
From: ryan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: 538 currently shows Harris leading Trump by less than 2%
| goobledegook...can't help you... |
443155
From: akira, [DNS_Address]
Subject: ok, nevermidn (NT)
| (NT) |
443188
From: mitra, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: ok, nevermidn (NT)
|
Just admit you were wrong or misunderstood. You'll sleep better and ... get a dog. |
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443199
From: akira, [DNS_Address]
Subject: what? lol(NT)
| (NT) |
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443127
From: ryan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: which poll?(NT)
| don't remember...saw it on the tube... |
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443111
From: akira, [DNS_Address]
Subject: this looks far more troubling
URL: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/what-could-happen-if-trump-rejects-us-election-results-2024-10-16/
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imagine the if Harris publicly said this today: Trump likely to challenge any election loss. His options have narrowed By James Oliphant October 17, 2024 WASHINGTON, Oct 16 (Reuters) - (This Oct. 16 story has been refiled to add the full description of Kamala Harris in paragraph 3) Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump says that if he does not win the Nov. 5 election, he will cry fraud and not accept the results - just as he did four years ago when he lost to Democratic President Joe Biden. “If I lose - I’ll tell you what, it’s possible. Because they cheat. That’s the only way we’re gonna lose, because they cheat," Trump said at a Michigan rally in September. A refusal by Trump to accept a victory by Democratic rival Kamala Harris could throw the United States into political instability at a time when the country is already deeply divided. After Trump lost the 2020 election, he and his allies attempted to overturn the result through dozens of lawsuits that ultimately failed to alter or delay the vote count. He also pressured officials in Georgia to find more votes for him; and his supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 in a failed effort to stop his vice president, Mike Pence, from certifying Biden's victory. One key difference this time is that Trump does not have the presidential levers of power that he did in 2020. And new state and federal laws have been put in place to make it more difficult to influence election results. Still, Trump and his allies have been laying the groundwork for months to cry foul if he loses on Nov. 5. He could contest a win by Harris in the courts or raise doubts about the validity of her victory among supporters that could have unforeseen consequences. The video player is currently playing an ad. 00:52 NASA's SpaceX Crew-8 astronauts return safely to Earth Skip in 5s SMOKE AND MIRRORS Republicans and Democrats expect that vote counting could drag on for several days after Nov. 5 as mail-in ballots are tabulated and other votes are tallied and verified. If it appears Trump is losing, the delay will give him an opportunity to claim fraud and attempt to undermine confidence in election officials, while also possibly encouraging his supporters to protest. He has already threatened to jail election workers and other public officials for “unscrupulous behavior,” although he would need to win the election first. Trump can take his case directly to the American public without waiting for proof, using social media, press conferences and interviews. "President Trump has been very clear that we must have a free and fair election," said Karoline Leavitt, a spokesperson for the Trump campaign. The Harris campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment. IN THE BATTLEGROUNDS Republicans have already preemptively filed more than 100 lawsuits in the battleground states that will decide the election to seed the ground for post- election challenges, including claiming, without evidence, that non-citizens will be voting in large numbers. Both parties plan to dispatch thousands of trained volunteers called poll watchers to monitor voting and vote counting with a mandate to report any irregularities. Some voting rights activists are concerned that Republican poll watchers could be disruptive, but the Republican Party says the volunteers have been trained to stay within the law. As they did in 2020, Trump's allies in key states - local election officials, state lawmakers and perhaps judges - could seek to delay certification, the confirmation of a state's official tally, through claims of fraud. Those efforts did not succeed last time, and election law experts say the laws in those states are clear that local officials lack the power to throw out ballots or derail the process. Five of the seven battleground states have Democratic governors but Democratic activists worry about Georgia, whose state election board recently gave unprecedented authority to local officials to conduct inquiries, a move they say could give an opening to bad-faith actors who attempt to contest or delay the vote count. A Georgia judge, however, ruled this week that local officials must certify the results and do not have the discretion to do otherwise. All states must submit their certified totals before the Electoral College meets in December and electors cast their votes. That vote is then delivered to Congress for final certification in January. Trump-inspired court challenges and certification delays could cause a state to miss the filing deadline. That could provide grist for Republican objections in Congress. Some election law experts caution that it is difficult to predict how novel legal disputes over certification might be resolved, especially if they are handled by judges sympathetic to Trump's claims. CONGRESS HAS FINAL SAY After the 2020 election, Congress passed a reform law that makes it more difficult for candidate to mount the kind of challenge Trump attempted. It makes clear that the vice president, who in this case would be Harris, has no authority to delay national certification or throw out a state's results, as Trump urged Pence to do in 2020. The measure also requires that an objection to a state's electoral count cannot be brought unless one-fifth of the members of each house of Congress agrees. After that, it takes a majority vote in each house for an objection to be found valid. In the unlikely result that enough electoral votes are tossed so that neither candidate reaches the necessary majority, the newly elected U.S. House of Representatives would choose the next president. CIVIL UNREST Any effort by Trump to suggest the election was rigged could potentially lead to civil unrest, as it did on Jan. 6, 2021. Experts who monitor militant right-wing groups, such as Peter Montgomery of the People For the American Way, a liberal think tank, say they are less concerned about a violent response from these groups than they are about threats against election workers counting votes. There also could be violent demonstrations in the capitals of battleground states, Montgomery said. Hundreds of people who were involved in the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol have been convicted and jailed for their actions, a powerful deterrent to others who may be considering taking similar actions. |
443178
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: this looks far more troubling
|
Everyone is "expecting" that this time. He'll walk out on election night and declare victory whether there's any evidence of a victory or not. Then the allegations of fraud will start, the attacks on swing state ballot centers, the suits will be filed.. I mean, we've been there before. This time, further protections have been put in place and the system knows what is coming. We'll see if those hold...again. |
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443118
From: mitra, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: this looks far more troubling
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Absolutely. I heard a talking head imagine what it will be like on Wednesday morning when this election is decided. It's not going to be that easy unless red states, sure of their win, are overwhelmed with blue. And that's possible this time. There are a lot of people Trump takes for granted will stay home. |
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