442818
From: ryan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Where are the polls?
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Where are the polls? The dearth of public polling is especially notable in the swing states. Steven Shepard Steven Shepard 10/20/2024, 4:15pm ET Just by looking at the polls, you wouldn’t know Election Day is 16 days away. That’s because there really aren’t any new polls — or at least, many reliable ones. And it’s making it hard to discern just how close is the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. The weekend is passing without a single high-quality public poll — nationally or in any of the battleground states — released on either Saturday or Sunday. Nothing from The New York Times and its high-profile partnership with Siena College. Crickets from all five broadcast and cable news networks’ Sunday shows. It’s a striking lack of data in the third-to-last weekend before Election Day. Polling has become markedly more expensive over the past two decades, while media outlets’ budgets are increasingly strained. So it’s not surprising that the polls that typically populate the Sunday morning public-affairs shows or the Sunday papers have become rarer. Still, the dearth of public polling is especially acute in the swing states. It’s Oct. 20, and there are only three polls conducted entirely this month with rigorous methodology in the most critical state, Pennsylvania. In Wisconsin, it’s only one high-quality poll this month. There are only two in Michigan. There’s no doubt that there are fewer polls conducted with the rigor needed to capture harder-to-reach voters — and with the corresponding high price tag. What’s less clear is whether — if you’re looking at poll aggregators like RealClearPolitics, FiveThirtyEight or Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin — it’s distorting the public’s view of the races. Yes, some of the lower-quality polls are either explicitly conducted by Republicans or have looser ties to the GOP. But analysts who’ve re-run the numbers to exclude those surveys as a thought exercise have found it has little effect on the averages — even as the polls typically regarded as more rigorous or independent generally show stronger results for Harris. In 2016, it was some of those lower-quality polls that either relied on convenience samples or were operating from a right-leaning perspective that correctly picked up on a hidden Trump advantage. But in 2022, to use the most recent election, they found the illusion of a red wave that never materialized — and it was the more expensive polls conducted for traditional media outlets and academic institutions that nailed the midterms. For now, it seems like many of the pollsters with the most established track records are taking an uncharacteristic break in advance of their final polls over the last two weeks of the race. |
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[442819] [442827] [442831] [442868] [442875] [442852] [442829] [442834] [442837]
442819
From: old timer, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Where are the polls?
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expect many polls the last 2 weeks as the political analysts try to get a feel for how the people will vote in this very close election |
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[442827] [442831] [442868] [442875] [442852] [442829] [442834] [442837]
442827
From: akira, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Where are the polls?
| how much more toss-uppy could it get? |
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[442831] [442868] [442875] [442852] [442829] [442834] [442837]
442831
From: old timer, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Where are the polls?
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at this point they will be looking for any small trends. recently kamala has lost the small lead she had built but how will that trend and others run over these final 2 weeks? late voter enthusiasm may give an idea on turnout |
442868
From: akira, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Where are the polls?
| we have 2 weeks of early voting. I'm going today! |
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[442875]
442875
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Where are the polls?
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okay then. Let's get the lady a sticker. |
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None
442852
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Where are the polls?
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fuck polls...just go vote. We'll know soon enough. |
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None
442829
From: ryan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Where are the polls?
| that's what the media says (serves their purpose)...let's see what the voters say... |
442834
From: akira, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Where are the polls?
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at this point polls are meaningless imo because there's really nothing the candidates can do about the results. The value of polls earlier in the campaign is it gives candidates an idea where and how to focus their resources and messaging. ie... |
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[442837]
442837
From: ryan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Where are the polls?
| 2024 - it's the orange turd, stupid... |
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None