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Date: October 21, 2024 at 13:53:54
From: old timer, [DNS_Address]
Subject: State of the Race: A Slight Shift Toward Trump but Still No Clear Favo |
URL: State of the Race: A Slight Shift Toward Trump but Still No Clear Favorite |
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State of the Race: A Slight Shift Toward Trump but Still No Clear Favorite
The polls are not precise enough for a 0.2-point edge to convey
meaningful information.
By Nate Cohn
Oct. 21, 2024
Updated 7:31 a.m. ET
With two weeks to go, the polls of the presidential election are starting to
run out of room to get any closer.
Kamala Harris and Donald J. Trump are essentially tied — with neither
candidate ahead by even a single point — in The New York Times’s polling
average of five critical battleground states: Pennsylvania, Michigan,
Nevada, Wisconsin and North Carolina.
In North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Michigan, neither candidate even
“leads” by more than two-tenths of a percentage point. Neither can
realistically win the presidency without winning at least one of these
states.
With the polls so tight, the term “leads” really does need to be in
quotation marks. Yes, the difference between “leading” or “trailing” by
0.2 points might feel very significant. After all, it looks like the difference
between whether a candidate is winning or losing. The election, however,
is not decided by the polls; it’s decided by the voters. As a consequence,
a lead or deficit of 0.2 points in a polling average is not the difference
between whether a candidate is winning or losing, even though it may feel
like it.
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The polls simply are not precise enough for a 0.2-point edge to convey
any meaningful information. For all purposes, the race is tied; don’t feel
any sorrow or take any solace in whether your candidate is on the right or
wrong side of that 0.2-point gap.
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In recent elections, the polls have tended to systematically underestimate
or overestimate one side by several percentage points. If that happens
this year, either candidate could claim a surprisingly decisive victory.
POLLING LEADER IF POLLS MISS LIKE THEY DID IN …
2022 2020
U.S. +1 Harris +1 +3
Wis. +1 Harris +3 +9
Nev. Even +3 +3
N.C. Even +1 +3
Pa. Even +6 +4
Mich. Even +6 +5
Ga. +2 Trump +2 +3
Ariz. +2 Trump +2 +4
Includes polling as of Oct. 20. See the latest polling averages »
Here’s where the race stands with two weeks to go.
Trump gains
Last week, we noted that the averages were tightening, but we were a
little reluctant to say whether there was real movement. One or two good
polls for Ms. Harris could have canceled out the tightening pretty quickly.
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The past week’s polls made a clearer case for movement toward Mr.
Trump.
A Slight Shift Toward Trump
CURRENT
MARGIN
CHANGE, LAST TWO WEEKS
+1 Rep.
U.S.
Harris +1
+1 Rep.
Wisconsin
Harris <1
<1 Rep.
Nevada
Even
+1 Dem.
North Carolina
Even
<1 Rep.
Pennsylvania
Even
+2 Rep.
Michigan
Even
No change
Georgia
Trump +2
<1 Dem.
Arizona
Trump +2
Nationwide, Ms. Harris is now ahead by just one point in our average, her
smallest lead since the Democratic convention. Most of the major national
polls have showed a shift toward Mr. Trump since their prior surveys:
Mr. Trump led by two points nationwide in a Fox News poll; Ms. Harris led
by two points in its prior poll.
Fairleigh Dickinson University found Ms. Harris ahead by three
nationwide, while she led by seven in its prior poll.
Marquette Law School found a tied race, compared with a six-point lead
for Ms. Harris in August.
Ipsos fielded several polls showing Ms. Harris up between two and four
points over the last week, compared with leads of mostly five or six points
in September.
Emerson College found a tied race, compared with a two-point lead for
Ms. Harris in its prior poll.
There was only one major national poll showing Ms. Harris faring better
this past week: the Marist poll, which showed her up five points
nationwide, up from two points a few weeks ago. The YouGov/Economist
poll showed no change; she’s still up by four points.
Together with the previous week’s polling, the balance of evidence
suggests that Mr. Trump has gained some ground. The size of his gains
shouldn’t be overstated — we’re talking about a point or so — but it has
nonetheless been enough to make the race more or less truly tied.
Whatever edge Ms. Harris might have had has vanished.
A Harris bright spot in North Carolina?
There’s only one state where the Times average has swung at least a point
toward Ms. Harris: North Carolina.
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This past week, a Quinnipiac poll found Ms. Harris ahead by three points,
even as Mr. Trump held a wide lead in its survey of Georgia. And a Cygnal
poll found Mr. Trump up by less than a point in North Carolina.
This is not necessarily a lot of evidence for a closer race. The next set of
polls could bring better numbers for Mr. Trump, and restore his lead.
But there is a plausible explanation for why North Carolina could be
behaving somewhat differently than the rest of the country: Hurricane
Helene.
At a minimum, the storm and the recovery almost certainly kept the state
focused on something other than the presidential election for most of the
last month. It’s also possible that the response of the candidates or the
federal government left an impression on voters. Or maybe many voters in
the reliably Republican western part of the state, which was ravaged by
the storm, are simply a bit less likely to take a telephone poll right now
(though it does seem power is nearly fully restored across the state).
Whatever the explanation, all of this injects extra uncertainty into the
state of play.
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[442844] [442845] [442854] [442859] [442873] |
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442844 |
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Date: October 21, 2024 at 14:17:51
From: mitra, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: State of the Race: A Slight Shift Toward Trump but Still No Clear... |
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Yeah. Rump ahead.
So you and others can stay home.
Go back to sleeeeeeeep.
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[442845] [442854] [442859] [442873] |
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442845 |
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Date: October 21, 2024 at 14:25:58
From: old timer, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: State of the Race: A Slight Shift Toward Trump but Still No... |
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slept well last night, thanks for asking. you not a new york times fan? the
race is basically tied although the trend has been towards trump over the
past few weeks
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[442854] [442859] [442873] |
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442854 |
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Date: October 21, 2024 at 17:47:38
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: State of the Race: A Slight Shift Toward Trump but Still No... |
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Responses:
[442859] [442873] |
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442859 |
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Date: October 21, 2024 at 18:44:55
From: old timer, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: State of the Race: A Slight Shift Toward Trump but Still No... |
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Responses:
[442873] |
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442873 |
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Date: October 22, 2024 at 10:31:32
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: State of the Race: A Slight Shift Toward Trump but Still No... |
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from that post, yes I am.
Useless.
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