| National
|
[
National ] [ Main Menu ] |
|
|
|
442726 |
|
|
Date: October 19, 2024 at 09:19:34
From: old timer , [DNS_Address]
Subject: Polls edge toward Trump: Here’s where the swing states stand |
URL: Polls edge toward Trump: Here’s where the swing states stand |
|
Polls edge toward Trump: Here’s where the swing states stand
BY NIALL STANAGE - 10/19/24 6:00 AM ET
Former President Trump is enjoying a small but measurable shot of
momentum as the race for the White House enters its closing stretch.
Polls have been edging in Trump’s direction since Vice President Harris hit
her two high points — around the Democratic National Convention in late
August and following her first and only debate with Trump on Sept. 10.
A recent media blitz by Harris has failed to give any comparable boost,
judging from polling within the past week.
Even so, all signs point to an extraordinarily close race.
The forecasting model maintained by The Hill and Decision Desk HQ
(DDHQ) now gives each candidate an exactly 50 percent chance of
prevailing, a shift from a recent high of 56 percent for Harris less than a
month ago.
The slight movement toward Trump disconcerts Democrats because he
has often outperformed his polling numbers in the past.
On the other hand, it is possible that the abortion issue could drive
increased turnout for Harris in the first presidential election since the
Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade.
Seven states are likely to decide the election. Here’s where the polls stand
in each of them.
Arizona
The Grand Canyon State is one of Trump’s strongest battlegrounds. He
currently leads The Hill/DDHQ polling average by 1.7 points.
President Biden won Arizona in 2002 by a tiny margin — about one-third
of a percentage point.
Team Trump can take some satisfaction from the fact that two high-
quality polls in Arizona emerged in the past week, putting him up by clear
margins.
A New York Times/Siena College poll, conducted last week but released
this week, put Trump up by a startling 6 points among registered voters. A
more recent CBS News/YouGov poll gave Trump a 3-point edge.
Arizona is also the location for one of the most high-profile Senate races
this year, where Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego is competing against
Republican firebrand Kari Lake.
Gallego is a firm favorite to win that contest but, at the presidential level,
Harris looks to be facing an uphill climb.
Georgia
Trump now leads by 1.9 percent in The Hill/DDHQ average in the Peach
State — his largest lead in any battleground.
Harris had led the polling averages here in early September but her edge
has now clearly been overturned.
That said, there is plenty of uncertainty, not least because any outlier poll
can have a big effect when the polling averages are so tight. A Quinnipiac
University poll in Georgia this week put Trump up by 6 points — a better
result for him than other surveys, even from GOP-leaning pollsters.
Early voting began in Georgia on Tuesday. The number of ballots that
came in that day alone — around 310,000 — was more than twice the
previous record for the first day of early voting in the state.
Harris and former President Obama will campaign in Georgia on Thursday
as she tries to boost Black turnout to help eke out a win.
Michigan
The Hill/DDHQ average varies somewhat from other polling averages in
the Wolverine State, giving Trump a 0.7-point lead.
FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin newsletter both have
Harris up by six-tenths of a point.
All three averages, however, show Harris’s position eroding. In The Hill’s
average, she was ahead by 1.3 points a month ago.
Democratic worries focus on two factors.
The first is the electoral impact of the Biden-Harris administration’s
support for Israel in a state that is home to more than 200,000 Arab
Americans. The other is concern about whether Harris has enough appeal
to blue-collar voters. The Michigan Professional Fire Fighters Union
announced this week that it would not endorse either candidate.
Still, Harris is by no means out of it in Michigan.
A poll this week from RMG Research showed each candidate getting 49
percent support.
Nevada
Harris is clinging to a narrow lead here in all three major polling averages.
Her advantage is just two-tenths of a point in The Hill/DDHQ average,
having stood at more than 2 points a month ago.
Nevada is the smallest of the battleground states, with six Electoral
College votes at stake.
Voters who work in the service industry in Las Vegas and Reno are vital —
so it’s no surprise that Harris copied Trump’s proposal to make tipped
income tax exempt.
There hasn’t been much polling in the past week in Nevada. One new
survey from Trafalgar Research — one of the few firms that correctly
projected Trump’s 2016 victory — had Harris leading by a single point.
North Carolina
In-person early voting got underway in the Tar Heel State on Thursday.
More than 353,000 North Carolinians cast their ballot that day, according
to the board of elections. This total surpassed the 2020 first-day number,
though only narrowly.
Trump leads by exactly 1 point in The Hill/DDHQ average. The state is the
only one of the seven battlegrounds that the former president carried in
2020.
Harris can take heart from a Quinnipiac University poll this week that put
her up by 3 points. Other surveys showed Trump up by between 2 points
and 5 points.
One wild card in North Carolina is the political impact of the severe
flooding caused by Hurricane Helene. Trump is scheduled to visit
Asheville, the worst-affected major city, on Monday.
Any shortcomings in the federal response could hurt Harris. On the other
hand, Trump drew rare dissent from within his own party for some untrue
claims he made about the response, including falsely implying that relief
from the Federal Emergency Management Agency was capped at $750.
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania is the biggest prize on the battleground map, with 19
Electoral College votes up for grabs.
Harris has an edge of three-tenths of a point in The Hill/DDHQ average,
meaning the race is in effect a dead heat.
Shortly before Biden abandoned his reelection bid, Trump enjoyed close
to a 5-point lead here. Harris hit her apex immediately after her
September debate, when she led by 2.1 points.
Democrats contend that the polling averages are being skewed in the
Keystone State by several recent surveys from firms with a perceived GOP
lean.
The exception is a New York Times/Siena College poll that gave Harris a 4-
point edge among likely voters.
Given Pennsylvania’s centrality to the election’s outcome, it’s no surprise
that the campaigns and their allies are spending huge money there.
Forbes, citing data from AdImpact, reported that almost $300 million had
been spent on political ads in the state from July 22 — the day after Biden
dropped out — until Oct. 8. It was a larger sum than any other
battleground state.
Wisconsin
Trump leads here by half a percentage point in The Hill/DDHQ average,
while Harris clings to similarly tiny leads in the other main polling
averages.
Trump carried the state in 2016, becoming the first Republican to do so
since former President Reagan in 1984. He lost narrowly in 2020, despite
significantly outperforming his polling averages.
During the past week, Wisconsin polls have mostly been from firms that
tend to deliver GOP-friendly results. They have found Trump with a small
advantage.
Losing Wisconsin would be a bad blow to Harris, but the state has
followed the same trajectory as many of the other battlegrounds, where
her lead has been whittled away.
She led by almost 5 points in The Hill/DDHQ average in late August.
|
|
|
|
|
Responses:
[442796] [442809] [442820] [442822] [442849] [442835] [442840] [442850] [442841] [442823] [442826] [442828] [442830] [442832] [442821] [442824] [442810] [442814] [442798] [442728] [442735] [442747] [442736] [442738] |
|
442796 |
|
|
Date: October 20, 2024 at 08:23:02
From: The Hierophant, [DNS_Address]
Subject: and THIS is who you are voting for??? |
URL: https://apnews.com/article/trump-arnold-palmer-closing-arguments-latrobe-pennsylvania-2bea9620c523e531a55259200215284e |
|
"Trump kicks off a Pennsylvania rally by talking about
Arnold Palmer’s genitalia
Donald Trump’s campaign suggested he would begin
previewing his closing argument Saturday night with
Election Day barely two weeks away. But the former
president kicked off his rally with a detailed story
about Arnold Palmer, at one point even praising the
late, legendary golfer’s genitalia.
Trump was campaigning in Latrobe, Pennsylvania, where
Palmer was born in 1929 and learned to golf from his
father, who suffered from polio and was head pro and
greenskeeper at the local country club.
Politicians saluting Palmer in his hometown is nothing
new. But Trump spent 12 full minutes doing so at the
top of his speech and even suggested how much more fun
the night would be if Palmer, who died in 2016, could
join him on stage.
“Arnold Palmer was all man, and I say that in all due
respect to women,” Trump said. “This is a guy that was
all man.”
Then he went even further.
“When he took the showers with other pros, they came
out of there. They said, ‘Oh my God. That’s
unbelievable,’” Trump said with a laugh. “I had to say.
We have women that are highly sophisticated here, but
they used to look at Arnold as a man.”
|
|
|
|
|
Responses:
[442809] [442820] [442822] [442849] [442835] [442840] [442850] [442841] [442823] [442826] [442828] [442830] [442832] [442821] [442824] [442810] [442814] [442798] |
|
442809 |
|
|
Date: October 20, 2024 at 11:05:13
From: old timer, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: and THIS is who you are voting for??? |
|
|
saw that trump speech in latrobe, nothing wrong there and definitely
better than when i’ve heard from kamala on her recent media blitz, damn
straight that’s who i’m voting for. gonna be a close election but kamala
seems to be struggling
|
|
|
|
|
Responses:
[442820] [442822] [442849] [442835] [442840] [442850] [442841] [442823] [442826] [442828] [442830] [442832] [442821] [442824] [442810] [442814] |
|
442820 |
|
|
Date: October 20, 2024 at 15:41:26
From: The Hierophant, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Yhgtbk! |
|
|
The supposed leader of our country talking about Arnold
Palmer's penis size - at a political rally? WHAT the
heck does that have to do with ANYTING about our
country, our economy, our environment, our country's
and her people's future? The future of the world? THAT
is ok with you?? What about if he started talking
about your penis to the media? Or your dad's? For the
entire world to hear - and that was the only quality
that he spoke about??? Guess you would be comfortable
with all that then? If you are, you are as sundowning
as your candidate OR you are a troll who says things to
get responses out of people. Because no civilized and
mature person I know, over 70 years of my life, in all
capacities and industries, would EVER talk about
someone elses' penis size in public. That is just
crude, rude, crass, immature, and lacks any social
graces or manners whatsoever. But I guess that if that
is who you are going for, must certainly represent
something you, yourself.
|
|
|
|
|
Responses:
[442822] [442849] [442835] [442840] [442850] [442841] [442823] [442826] [442828] [442830] [442832] [442821] [442824] |
|
442822 |
|
|
Date: October 20, 2024 at 16:08:58
From: old timer, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: well |
|
|
like many in this country i’m well aware of what a flawed candidate trump
is. that’s why i said i would hold my nose and vote for him. but like many i
recall how well our country did under his administration and how poorly it
has been run the last 4 years of biden/harris with inflation, immigration
and multiple overseas conflicts threatening to bring out nation into a
world war. surely at this late date you don’t think trump’s tasteless big
dick in the locker room joke is going to change anyone’s mind. everyone
knows how obnoxious trump is. what we don’t know is much of anything
about kamala as she says she wouldn’t do anything differently than biden
but then a few days later says she will be different that biden. in most of
her interviews and rally speeches all she talks about is trump which plays
well with you trump haters but does nothing for those few independents
still looking for a reason to vote for her
this is going to be a close election and regardless who wins hopefully
democrats will allow an actual open primary in 2028 to let the people
choose the best candidate
|
|
|
|
|
Responses:
[442849] [442835] [442840] [442850] [442841] [442823] [442826] [442828] [442830] [442832] |
|
442849 |
|
|
Date: October 21, 2024 at 17:33:32
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: well |
|
|
That's like saying, "I need a new car. This one has a
rats nest under the hood and been recalled for self-
combusting on the road! But hat's okay, I'll buy it
anyway. What could go wrong?"
|
|
|
|
|
Responses:
None |
|
442835 |
|
|
Date: October 21, 2024 at 04:49:51
From: The Hierophant, [DNS_Address]
Subject: The way he |
|
|
talks to the crowds that support him is indicative of his
character - one that is focused on size - size of penis,
size of tits, size of crowds, size of his
hands....everything has to do with size - the bigger the
better for him - just like his ego.
|
|
|
|
|
Responses:
[442840] [442850] [442841] |
|
442840 |
|
|
Date: October 21, 2024 at 10:38:31
From: old timer, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: The way he |
|
|
he’s an obnoxious guy, everyone knows that, but he is still getting support
because he did a good job in office while biden/harris have not
|
|
|
|
|
Responses:
[442850] [442841] |
|
442850 |
|
|
Date: October 21, 2024 at 17:37:29
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: The way he |
|
|
uh..no he did not. He was a full disaster in every way.
He was freaking insane then, and is worse now. He'll
tank the economy, our allies, start wars not end them,
get more people killed and gag us all from complaining
about it while he pockets our money (you hear about his
Tariff idea? Going to push the price of everything up).
He's the full loser.
But hey, he talks about dicks and Hannible. Again, what
could go wrong?
|
|
|
|
|
Responses:
None |
|
442841 |
|
|
Date: October 21, 2024 at 11:04:00
From: ryan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: The way he |
|
|
|
lol...yep, great job on covid and the environment, among other of his many "successes"...lol...he and his family did do a much better job of grifting than biden/harris...
|
|
|
|
|
Responses:
None |
|
442823 |
|
|
Date: October 20, 2024 at 16:16:04
From: ryan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: well |
|
|
you are living in the past...and viewing it through rose colored glasses...try to get current and listen to what he is saying now that he'll do if elected again...i will guarantee that if he gets back in, you will rue your vote...
and it's not just that it is a tasteless joke...it's that this is what he is campaigning on...dick size...haven't heard kamala talking about big boobs (except rump that is)...i have heard her talking a lot about what she will do for the people...rump only talks about rounding them up and putting them in camps and deporting them...this is the guy you think should be running the country, when he can't even control his own mouth...simply amazing...
|
|
|
|
|
Responses:
[442826] [442828] [442830] [442832] |
|
442826 |
|
|
Date: October 20, 2024 at 16:48:55
From: old timer, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: well |
|
|
“you will rue your vote”
lol kinda corny
this has been the theme of biden’s campaign and when he was forced out
kamala’s campaign which is why no progress is being made. the
democrats got an automatic roughly 40% of the vote with you anyone but
trump voters, but struggle to make any headway because there were few
positives for biden and kamala is an unknown with very few positives.
when she has the opportunity to let people get to know her all she says is
“but trump, but trump”. that’s a message that plays well with you voting
based on fear but does little else to draw in support
|
|
|
|
|
Responses:
[442828] [442830] [442832] |
|
442828 |
|
|
Date: October 20, 2024 at 17:18:41
From: ryan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: well |
|
|
rump is an known with very few if any positives...
but you will hold your nose...i i will mock you for it...
|
|
|
|
|
Responses:
[442830] [442832] |
|
442830 |
|
|
Date: October 20, 2024 at 18:22:26
From: old timer, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: well |
|
|
you will mock me? lmao we aren’t in school anymore dude and you are
already known for your mocking and insults rather than on topic,
intelligent discussion. the national board has become a school like clique
trying to bully anyone not willing to conform to your simpleton leftie views
can’t believe you said you’d mock me! lol
|
|
|
|
|
Responses:
[442832] |
|
442832 |
|
|
Date: October 20, 2024 at 18:33:15
From: ryan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: well |
|
|
|
can't believe you will hold your nose and vote for lardass...guess it's a draw...
|
|
|
|
|
Responses:
None |
|
442821 |
|
|
Date: October 20, 2024 at 16:02:31
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Yhgtbk! |
|
|
It doesn't say anything about anything other than his
own puny insecurities.
Trump is weird and weak.
|
|
|
|
|
Responses:
[442824] |
|
442824 |
|
|
Date: October 20, 2024 at 16:17:13
From: ryan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Yhgtbk! |
|
|
|
and ot likes him because it reminds him of what he sees when he looks in the mirror...
|
|
|
|
|
Responses:
None |
|
442810 |
|
|
Date: October 20, 2024 at 11:11:53
From: shadow, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: and THIS is who you are voting for??? |
|
|
You're the only one who's "struggling" here old
timer...lol...
Nothing wrong there in that speech?
Yep. You're struggling...for basic vision and
comprehension...! ;-O
|
|
|
|
|
Responses:
[442814] |
|
442814 |
|
|
Date: October 20, 2024 at 11:54:41
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: and THIS is who you are voting for??? |
|
|
the new term for it is "sane washing"...explaining away
something insane and trying to make it seem sane.
You're not crazy. It's insane. This is not normal.
|
|
|
|
|
Responses:
None |
|
442798 |
|
|
Date: October 20, 2024 at 08:36:46
From: shadow, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: and THIS is who you are voting for??? |
|
|
Sheesh...it's not even tempting to joke about how this
kind of behavior usually reveals unconscious homosexual
inclination (all the moreso, the more hysterically-
testosterone-ridden the man *appears*)...given all the
other ways this is grotesque, disgusting and appalling...
There are a lot of people in this country who are so
*literally terrified* of Biblical Armageddon, of anyone
or anything Different from them, of anyone or anything
that even appears to challenge their fears, that it
*literally no longer matters* what level of character, or
integrity, or even trajectory of values or belief that a
presidential candidate brings: All they need do is *LAY
DOWN THE LAW LIKE A DICTATOR, AND PROMISE PEOPLE THEY
WILL BE SAFE FROM THEIR FEARS, AND THEY'RE GOING TO
HEAVEN...
*It doesn't matter how depraved they are...as long as
they promise this...*
(And, no...having this pointed out for them won't
embarrass them or change their minds...)
But again! Fortunately.......there are more of us than
there are of them... ;)
|
|
|
|
|
Responses:
None |
|
442728 |
|
|
Date: October 19, 2024 at 09:22:06
From: shadow, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Polls edge toward Trump: Here’s where the swing states stand |
|
|
Take some good photos, Old Timer! Enjoy it while you can,
cuz that'll change in a minute... ;)
|
|
|
|
|
Responses:
[442735] [442747] [442736] [442738] |
|
442735 |
|
|
Date: October 19, 2024 at 09:34:04
From: mitra, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Polls edge toward Trump: Here’s where the swing states stand |
|
|
Hmm. Wonder if Utah will turn blue now Romney & Flake
are pro Harris?
|
|
|
|
|
Responses:
[442747] [442736] [442738] |
|
442747 |
|
|
Date: October 19, 2024 at 10:37:19
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Polls edge toward Trump: Here’s where the swing states stand |
|
|
it's on the table. The mormans there generally do not
like Trump.
No worries, he'll rewrite a bible for them, too..or
punish their religion for not being supportive enough
while hijacking their children in schools to be good
little magas under law.
|
|
|
|
|
Responses:
None |
|
442736 |
|
|
Date: October 19, 2024 at 09:44:00
From: shadow, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Polls edge toward Trump: Here’s where the swing states stand |
|
|
Personally I feel that Now, unlike any other time in our
history, *literally Anything is possible*... ;)
(And I mean that leaning toward All Things Positive and
Progressive, rather than All Things Fascistically Inclined,
of course... ;)
|
|
|
|
|
Responses:
[442738] |
|
442738 |
|
|
Date: October 19, 2024 at 09:48:21
From: mitra, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Polls edge toward Trump: Here’s where the swing states stand |
|
|
Yes. I'm curious how many will make connections
between our latest education rating second from the
bottom and so many other similar state rankings the
trumplican minion administration brought us.
|
|
|
|
|
Responses:
None |
|
[
National ] [ Main Menu ] |