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442741 |
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Date: October 19, 2024 at 10:17:14
From: shadow, [DNS_Address]
Subject: GOP-leaning polls trigger questions about accuracy |
URL: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4941955-gop-leaning-polls-trigger-questions-about-accuracy/ |
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The prevalence of Republican-leaning polls in recent
weeks is raising questions about their effect on the
overall polling average as the presidential race between
Vice President Harris and former President Trump tightens
even further.
Surveys from pollsters that lean toward one party are a
regular occurrence in presidential contests along with
independent polling.
In recent weeks, however, GOP-leaning polls have flooded
the zone, fueling speculation that they could be skewing
perceptions of the race. But experts note their average
models have methodologies in place to prepare for this.
“When you look across all the averages, the net effect is
less than a point, if you take out the Republican polls,
or the partisan ones, so to speak,” said Scott Tranter,
the director of data science for Decision Desk HQ. “So I
don’t necessarily think it’s a huge thing there.”
Across the board, election models and polling averages
consider the race almost neck and neck without a clear
leader. The Hill/DDHQ model has the race as almost
exactly even in each candidates’ chance to prevail at 50-
50.
In FiveThirtyEight’s simulations of 1,000 possible
outcomes, Trump wins in just more than 500 of them, a bit
ahead of Harris. Pollster Nate Silver has Trump just
ahead in likelihood of winning, still in line with other
models.
Polling in general has been picking up as Election Day
approaches — and in particular surveys from Republican-
affiliated firms. Various averages include several polls
from Republican-leaning pollsters or with Republican-
leaning sponsors while not as many from Democratic-
leaning pollsters.
This has raised the question of whether these GOP-leaning
polls are to explain for why the race is tightening even
more so with Trump seeming to make slight gains
nationally and in key swing states.
Tranter said these Republican partisan polls are having a
minimal effect on the averages.
He said DDHQ doesn’t weigh polls based on party
associations. Polls that are most recent are given more
weight than older ones, and sample size and meeting
“basic requirements” are taken into consideration, but
otherwise polls are treated the same way.
Tranter acknowledged that if the Republican-leaning
pollsters were finding better results for Trump, the
average would be more affected, but he noted that DDHQ’s
model gives Harris a slightly better chance at winning
than others that include a weighting system to limit the
effect of partisan polls.
Silver’s model, for example, has Harris as the slight
underdog but does weigh polls based on pollster quality
and bias.
An elections analyst for Silver rejected the idea of GOP-
leaning polls having much influence on the average in a
post on Wednesday, noting that Harris led by 3 points
nationally in the overall average, while her lead shrunk
to 2 points with just Republican-aligned pollsters.
Taking them out, her lead increased to 3.4 points.
But the analyst said the weighing system prevents
partisan polls from skewing the average, causing most
models to roughly have the same averages on the national
and state level, generally with differences within 1
percentage point.
Tranter also noted that not all GOP-leaning polls present
good news for Republicans, pointing to internal polls
from the Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC that works
to elect Republicans to the Senate, which showed several
GOP candidates trailing their Democratic opponents in key
states that the party has expressed high hopes for.
He said the impulse to consider the effect of partisan
polls is a “reaction to the reaction,” with various media
outlets reporting on good polls for one side or new
surveys that move the average.
“In a way, the polls are doing their job right,” he said.
“They’re getting the media to talk about a potential
movement here.”
But Tranter said he ultimately expects the polling for
the race will appear mostly similar right before Election
Day to how it currently looks and has looked throughout
much of the race. He noted that DDHQ’s model has “inched”
Harris’s probability of winning down from 53 percent to
50 percent over the past two months, which is measurable,
but “it’s still essentially a coin flip.”
The closeness of the race is why these slight changes are
seen as notable, Tranter said.
“My take on it now is neither candidate should be
surprised if they win or lose,” he said.
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Responses:
[442743] [442750] [442764] [442768] [442772] [442774] [442777] [442782] [442775] [442776] [442753] [442759] [442744] [442752] [442755] [442749] [442754] [442745] |
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442743 |
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Date: October 19, 2024 at 10:27:35
From: akira, [DNS_Address]
Subject: trump is slightly ahead in all battleground states (at the moment) |
URL: https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/president/2024/battleground-states |
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click on each state at the link to see the specific aggregate of polls. It's as
transparent as can be. Are they mostly republican/conservative?
Yes/No/I don't know
DATE TRUMP (R)HARRIS (D)SPREAD
Top Battlegrounds
10/19 48.4 47.4 Trump+1.0
Arizona
October 19th 49.1 47.3 Trump+1.8
Nevada
October 19th 47.9 47.1 Trump+0.8
Wisconsin
October 19th 47.9 47.8 Trump+0.1
Michigan
October 19th 48.6 47.7 Trump+0.9
Pennsylvania
October 19th 47.9 47.4 Trump+0.5
North Carolina
October 19th 48.5 47.5 Trump+1.0
Georgia
October 19th 48.6 46.9 Trump+1.7
Here's the list of the 7 polls for the first state on the list above, Arizona:
Are most of these polls republican?
POLLSTER DATE SAMPLE MOE TRUMP (R)HARRIS (D)SPREAD
RCP Average
9/24 - 10/16 — — 49.1 47.3 Trump
+1.8
CBS News
Trafalgar Group (R)
NY Times/Siena
The Hill/Emerson
Wall Street Journal
InsiderAdvantage
Fabrizio/Anzalone
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[442750] [442764] [442768] [442772] [442774] [442777] [442782] [442775] [442776] [442753] [442759] [442744] [442752] [442755] [442749] [442754] [442745] |
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442750 |
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Date: October 19, 2024 at 10:42:48
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: trump is slightly ahead in all battleground states (at the moment) |
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yeah, those assurances were given in 2016 and 2020, too,
while promising a Hillary landslide or a "red wave".
Fool me once...
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Responses:
[442764] [442768] [442772] [442774] [442777] [442782] [442775] [442776] [442753] [442759] |
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442764 |
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Date: October 19, 2024 at 11:04:50
From: old timer, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: trump is slightly ahead in all battleground states (at the moment) |
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“those assurances were given in 2016 and 2020”
polls are never, ever an assurance of anything. they try to give an idea of
what people think and who they will vote for by sampling a group but
assurance is a word that should never be used in relation to polls
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[442768] [442772] [442774] [442777] [442782] [442775] [442776] |
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442768 |
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Date: October 19, 2024 at 11:11:33
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: trump is slightly ahead in all battleground states (at the moment) |
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If I want to know what people think, I ask them.
Do you actually ask people? Family? Friends? Do you
have any? Or do you sit at your computer all day and
pump out selected and approved information?
One of my best friends is the President of our local
chapter of Libertarians. We ask each other
questions...often we don't agree, sometimes we do. But,
we talk. We're not afraid of each other.
Magas, on the other hand..they tend you yell and shriek
at you, they don't ask..they tell, they don't listen,
they bully, they don't offer, they threaten.
Both my Libertarian friend and I agree, we don't want a
country like that, despite our other differences.
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[442772] [442774] [442777] [442782] [442775] [442776] |
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442772 |
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Date: October 19, 2024 at 11:38:48
From: old timer, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: trump is slightly ahead in all battleground states (at the moment) |
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if you find family and friends keep you informed on how the almost
350 million people in this country feel that fine. many look to broaden
their horizons beyond the tip of their nose so polls that look at diverse
groups can be helpful. just don’t take them as assurances
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Responses:
[442774] [442777] [442782] [442775] [442776] |
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442774 |
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Date: October 19, 2024 at 12:03:20
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: trump is slightly ahead in all battleground states (at the moment) |
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I have a large circle of friends and family across the
country. They're also pretty diverse.
One of the things a friend in Pennsylvania told me
lately is that there are very few "Trump" yardsigns,
but lots of Harris yardsigns. This is new, different. I
listen, pay attention.
The same is true here in my red neighborhood.
That's one opinion from somewhere else I do not live. I
learned the first by talking to someone. I learned the
second by looking myself if that hold true here.
I don't know the people that put together the Hill
polls. I do know and trust my friend in Pennsylvania.
I have a couple of grown children in Oklahoma, as well.
One's studying to become a lawyer and his views are
real interesting on what he sees going on there.
More grown kids also in both education and law
enforcement professionas in Texas. They also share on
the ground observations and their feelings on things.
I have lots of grown kids..there are others, but that's
just a "sample" and does not include the additional
friends I talk to either in person, phone, text, email
or live chats--one on one (some of them for decades).
So, if the news says "haitians are eating dogs in
Springfield"...I ask a friend in Ohio. Is that true?
What do you see? Have you been in this town?
I don't need to rely only on the news. I knew it was BS
right away before Trump could spin it out at a debate
lol.
Maybe it's because I'm old and I have a large circle of
relationships. Maybe it's because there was a time when
our eyes and ears and relationships were much more
valued than anything someone could make up on the
internet. But, when something online doesn't jive with
with I see, or hear another I trust say is actually
happening, then I know there's BS involved and probably
some other agenda going on.
If you blind, deafen and mute yourself to this "real"
sample, you are setting yourself up to be easily
gullible to those other agendas.
Real people do exist. Relationships you trust are
important, and I would place far more value on them
than anything on an internet poll.
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[442777] [442782] [442775] [442776] |
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442777 |
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Date: October 19, 2024 at 13:34:07
From: akira, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Do you have conversations with Trump supporters? |
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Have you actually had conversations with people who support trump? I’ve
encountered quite a few lately. Several people recently told me that they don’t
like him, but will be voting for him. Some gave immigration as the
reason (whatever that means to them). They don't like trump, but see no
alternative. Another woman, a neighbor recently said of course she didn't like
trump, but thought he'd be a much stronger leader than Harris when dealing
with other countries. I wouldn't expect these people to put placards on their
lawns and making themselves targets of hate & ridicule in the communities.
I would be wary of drawing any conclusions based on what you see or don't
see on peoples lawns. In a poll one remains anonymous.
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[442782] |
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442782 |
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Date: October 19, 2024 at 14:09:21
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Do you have conversations with Trump supporters? |
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I've heard those views echoed in Trump supporters, but
I've also found their reasons detached from reality.
It's hard to find an illegal here in my town, yet some
are convinced they're behind every bush because Fox
news shows them that every day.
Another popular straw they grasp onto is the economy is
bad..this is often after they are just done bragging
about the new car in their driveway.
These people are the ones I'm most at odds with. They
aren't looking around at reality, but believing what is
channeled to them usually by a media outlet or
facebook.
That's not to say there aren't Trump supporters that
don't have valid personal reasons for their views.
Those are very interesting to talk to.
I met a woman in town who told me she could never vote
for Harris. I asked her why. She said she had been
raped some years ago, and was told the law would bring
her justice, but her case was tossed out because of
some legal roadblock to using evidence. She has been
grilled and humiliated. Harris was a DA and Attorney
General, and therefore, in her eyes..was responsible
for her injustice. I felt that she genuinely has a
unique greivance against district attorneys who
promised to bring her justice, but did not.
We talked for quite a while about law and women. What
laws could be changed to make things better. She did
have a point that rape victims often are further
victimized by how laws currently are carried out.
I didn't agree with where she put that blame, but did
agree there is an issue there that needs to be
addressed and did not feel like her view was off some
sort of spun media, but from a real life, real human
experience.
I've also heard the Trump woman voter who thinks women
can't be leaders. If you were born in the 50s or early
60s, this early-life training for little girls was
standard. Some women carry that belief system with them
through life. Other's, like myself, got to a point
where it was not born out to be a true belief and cast
out. That kind of mentality is what got me into an
abusive first marraige with someone who controlled
every little thing in my life.
What I feel for these women is sorry. They never got
out. Like I stated in a different post, belief systems
are some of the most difficult things to address in a
person. Most people won't without some sort of trauma
or powerful event forcing them to question it at last.
I understand that view, I don't share it. Just one look
around this world will show there are women who lead,
and do so effectively. Not every women (or man for that
matter) has that skill, but most certainly there are
those who do.
Yard signs was an example, but clearly not the only
thing one might see as an indicator. Just something
very tangible and visable..not to be taken alone, but
along with everything else.
i understand the hate thing. There are those in our own
community that will not put up a yard sign because of
fear of being targeted. Thing is, I live in a pretty
solid red area, and they've never had that fear
before..they're usually the ones others were afraid of
targeting them.
They didn't have a problem in the past putting up a
sign, or bumpersticker, or flag, or red maga hat...but
those are disappearing, and it's not out of fear
because this is a red area. Lack of enthusiam seems to
be a better guess, or those people like you run into "I
don't like him, but" ...soft support. Or changed
support. All these things exist for sure.
Someone who feels like they have to begrudgingly vote
for someone, even if they don't like them, is also very
likely not to vote at all.
They aren't likely to put a sign out
They're not likely to even want to talk about politics.
They're not very motivated to get involved, donate, or
anything else.
This speaks to turn out issues.
I don't know about your neighborhood...blue or red or
purple. it has special circumstances with recent
Hillary, too. Interesting to hear about it, though.
I'd much rather compare notes on our townspeople than
on poll numbers on the internet.
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442775 |
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Date: October 19, 2024 at 12:24:25
From: old timer, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: trump is slightly ahead in all battleground states (at the moment) |
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impressive circle of people red, but do they actually do a better job than
polls? as i recall you were pretty damned surprised in 2016. maybe you do
your own thing and let other people do theirs
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[442776] |
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442776 |
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Date: October 19, 2024 at 12:28:41
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: trump is slightly ahead in all battleground states (at the moment) |
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"impressive circle of people red, but do they actually
do a better job than
polls?"
Yes.
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442753 |
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Date: October 19, 2024 at 10:46:49
From: akira, [DNS_Address]
Subject: fool you? nobody's trying to fool you redhart (NT) |
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[442759] |
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442759 |
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Date: October 19, 2024 at 10:52:24
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: fool you? nobody's trying to fool you redhart (NT) |
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Akira, some polls are honestly "doing their best" and
still missing terribly.
They were 8-10pts off in the primaries. I was paying
attention. I even copied the poll vs results onto this
board and how off they were.
Add to that there is genuine attempts to manipulate
some averages.
Whether they're intentionally trying to fool, or just
honestly being off..the result is the same. It's a
fools errand to put too much faith in them right now,
either way.
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442744 |
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Date: October 19, 2024 at 10:29:05
From: akira, [DNS_Address]
Subject: ironically several of polls OT has posted lately were from The Hill(NT) |
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[442752] [442755] [442749] [442754] [442745] |
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442752 |
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Date: October 19, 2024 at 10:44:53
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: ironically several of polls OT has posted lately were from The... |
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and they aren't any less likely of bad methodology,
erroneous weighting, skewed samples or demographics or
any of the problem other polls have had, even when they
are they might be well motivated.
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442755 |
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Date: October 19, 2024 at 10:47:31
From: akira, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: ironically several of polls OT has posted lately were from The... |
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okay, okay, MOVE ON already... lol
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442749 |
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Date: October 19, 2024 at 10:41:30
From: old timer, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: most of what i post |
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most of what i post comes from a handful of large left leaning media
outlets. not sure why they get so butthurt about polls, until election day
they are all we have and they only give us a vague idea of what may
happen. right now polls tell us the election is still basically tied although
there seems to be a slight shift in momentum to trump. it didn’t help that
kalamala said on the view should wouldn’t do anything different from
biden or that she went on fox and said but trump, but trump, but trump
but didn’t answer the questions
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[442754] |
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442754 |
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Date: October 19, 2024 at 10:47:18
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: most of what i post |
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she was pretty busy trying to get a word in edgewise.
And yes, that's her job is to compare who she is and
what she would do in comparison to trump.
It was a hostile interview, not something a DA would be
afraid of...and she wasn't.
She also blew up the false narrative that she's soft,
stupid or unwilling to take criticism and heat (you
know, like Trump is).
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442745 |
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Date: October 19, 2024 at 10:33:50
From: shadow, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: ironically several of polls OT has posted lately were from The... |
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Akira, try to keep up: I've noted here that I don't give a
fuck about polls, when I post them it's for those that
do...
You're a little hot on the triggerfinger this morning, even
for you... Take a momentary breath maybe?
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