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442494 |
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Date: October 15, 2024 at 13:36:15
From: old timer, [DNS_Address]
Subject: How different turnout models change the NBC News poll results |
URL: How different turnout models change the NBC News poll results |
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How different turnout models change the NBC News poll results
A few percentage points of difference in turnout by gender or education
can produce very different results, both in election polls and in elections
themselves.
Oct. 13, 2024, 9:00 AM EDT / Updated Oct. 15, 2024, 3:18 PM EDT
By Ben Kamisar and Mark Murray
Close elections always come down to turnout. And while there remain a lot
of unknowns ahead of November’s presidential election, one thing seems
almost certain: It’s going to be close, at least in many of the key states
that will decide the election.
So the bipartisan polling team behind the NBC News poll, Public Opinion
Strategies and Hart Research Associates, devised an experiment.
What happens to the ballot test in NBC News’ brand-new national poll
when you assume a turnout model that benefits the Democratic Party
versus one that favors the GOP?
The results won’t be much of a surprise. But the exercise is instructive,
showing how relatively small shifts in the demographic makeup of the
electorate could prove important in a close election.
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are tied
on the head-to-head ballot in the new October NBC News poll results, at
48% each.
Assuming a turnout model that’s more favorable to Republicans puts
Trump ahead by 2 points, 49%-47%. But one more favorable to
Democrats puts Harris in front 49%-46%. And neither scenario requires
outlandish assumptions.
What would that more favorable Democratic turnout look like? An uptick in
female voters, and an electorate that’s more diverse racially, has more
college degree-holders, and more from the cities and suburbs.
The turnout model that looks better for Republicans is the inverse: a
whiter electorate with more men, and upticks in rural voters and those
without college degrees.
But what’s really important is how little demographic movement it takes to
produce these shifts. It shows just how important turnout can be in
elections (not to mention the importance of the assumptions polls make
about who will turn out).
Recommended
VOTE WATCH
How Trump allies stoked election chaos in Detroit in 2020 — and what
they're planning in 2024
In the pro-Democratic and pro-Republican turnout scenarios, the
difference in the female share of the electorate is just 1 point. In the pro-
Democratic scenario, the white share of the electorate is lower than in the
pro-Republican one, but only by 2 points.
A few percentage points of difference in turnout by age, race, education,
urbanicity and a host of other factors can make a huge difference,
particularly in a race that's within the margin of error in this poll across
every scenario. It’s why predicting exactly what will happen in a close
election is so hard — and it’s one of the big reasons why there’s variation
in polls before elections.
The NBC News poll of 1,000 registered voters, 898 of whom were reached
by cellphone, was conducted Oct. 4-8. It has an overall margin of error of
plus or minus 3.1 percentage points
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[442498] [442513] [442516] [442517] [442521] [442523] [442524] [442525] [442526] [442527] [442529] [442515] [442522] [442507] [442509] [442512] [442514] [442502] [442506] [442520] |
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442498 |
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Date: October 15, 2024 at 14:26:33
From: ryan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: How different turnout models change the NBC News poll results |
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"Close elections always come down to turnout. "
glad you agree with me...i've been saying that for a while now...polls don't take turnout into account...and harris' backers seem much more energetic than rump's tired old crowd...
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[442513] [442516] [442517] [442521] [442523] [442524] [442525] [442526] [442527] [442529] [442515] [442522] [442507] [442509] [442512] [442514] [442502] [442506] [442520] |
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442513 |
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Date: October 15, 2024 at 16:46:03
From: akira, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: How different turnout models change the NBC News poll results |
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"and harris' backers seem much more energetic than rump's tired old crowd..."
and what do you base that opinion on? polls in swing states are suggesting
otherwise.
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[442516] [442517] [442521] [442523] [442524] [442525] [442526] [442527] [442529] [442515] [442522] |
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442516 |
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Date: October 15, 2024 at 16:57:54
From: old timer, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: How different turnout models change the NBC News poll results |
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my thoughts as well. there have been numerous articles on concerns
about democratic voter registration and voter enthusiasm, but he
probably doesn’t read them
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[442517] [442521] [442523] [442524] [442525] [442526] [442527] [442529] |
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442517 |
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Date: October 15, 2024 at 17:15:47
From: ryan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: How different turnout models change the NBC News poll results |
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why read when i can observe?
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[442521] [442523] [442524] [442525] [442526] [442527] [442529] |
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442521 |
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Date: October 15, 2024 at 17:24:57
From: old timer, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: How different turnout models change the NBC News poll results |
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how do you observe voter registration and voter enthusiasm in swing
states?
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[442523] [442524] [442525] [442526] [442527] [442529] |
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442523 |
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Date: October 15, 2024 at 17:31:47
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: How different turnout models change the NBC News poll results |
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well, you can volunteer to work registering voters for
one lol.
Should try it sometimes, get out from behind your
internet and smell some fresh air, get out in the world,
and look with your own eyes.
Talk to people from other places.
Talk to family, catch up with a friend.
You know..real people.
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442524 |
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Date: October 15, 2024 at 17:37:00
From: old timer, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: How different turnout models change the NBC News poll results |
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you are still very myopic red, there is more to this country than what’s in
front of you. expand your horizons
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442525 |
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Date: October 15, 2024 at 17:48:18
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: How different turnout models change the NBC News poll results |
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open your eyes and turn off the computer now and then.
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442526 |
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Date: October 15, 2024 at 17:54:43
From: old timer, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: How different turnout models change the NBC News poll results |
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sounds like you have no clue what you are talking about. let me ask you,
why in the hell do sources matter if you still only believe what you want to
believe no matter the source?
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[442527] [442529] |
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442527 |
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Date: October 15, 2024 at 18:24:14
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: How different turnout models change the NBC News poll results |
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sources that verify their information can be of value
to fill in things you can't see or talk to someone
about.
Sources that don't verify, spin, spread disinfo and
misinformation, can be rabbit holes that steer one away
from reality.
We all need reality checks. They're more important than
even source checks. it's where you walk outside and see
for yourself rather than rely on someone else's
interpretation.
I can't tell you how many times I went to some event,
or happened to be in a place where something newsworthy
happened..then read about it the next day and it got
things wrong. You won't know if you don't see.
Don't rely on a computer to tell you what to think.
You seem to have an aversion to reality or people,
places and actually being there.
If you trust only what you read on the computer, it
owns you and what you think.
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[442529] |
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442529 |
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Date: October 15, 2024 at 18:48:15
From: old timer, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: How different turnout models change the NBC News poll results |
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“sources that verify their information can be of value to fill in things you
can't see or talk to someone about”
i can agree with this, which is why it makes no sense the way you dismiss
anything from credible sources that doesn’t agree with your beliefs
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442515 |
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Date: October 15, 2024 at 16:47:51
From: ryan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: How different turnout models change the NBC News poll results |
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[442522] |
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442522 |
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Date: October 15, 2024 at 17:28:20
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: How different turnout models change the NBC News poll results |
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I actually worked a voter registration booth in a red
district at our fair this year.
I was there.
I saw. We had a lot of people stop by. I already told
about the young people registering and some republicans
who wanted to re-register this year and didn't want to
be republicans anymore.
We saw the GOP/Trump booth..pretty empty of people.
They had a cut out of Trump you could take a photo
with, though. No one was doing that, and the workers
there looked pretty bored.
The one guy that was making out like a bandit was the
one selling Trump flags/hats/whatevers. I talked to him
a bit..he didn't care if Trump actually won, he was
raking it in on his few followers. They had money and
loved to buy stuff. Carnival booth stuff.
His base likes "the stuff"..the gaudy things, the team
flags..but not a lot of them registering. Interesting,
huh?
Guess the economy wasn't hurting them too bad?
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442507 |
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Date: October 15, 2024 at 16:02:47
From: old timer, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: How different turnout models change the NBC News poll results |
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glad you liked the article
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442509 |
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Date: October 15, 2024 at 16:40:24
From: ryan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: How different turnout models change the NBC News poll results |
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that is what you call spin without basis...lol...
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442512 |
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Date: October 15, 2024 at 16:44:58
From: old timer, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: How different turnout models change the NBC News poll results |
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what spin? that was an article from nbc today without any comment from
me, duh
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442514 |
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Date: October 15, 2024 at 16:46:21
From: ryan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: How different turnout models change the NBC News poll results |
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oh the density...i was referring to your unsupported spin that i liked the article...
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442502 |
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Date: October 15, 2024 at 14:38:46
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: How different turnout models change the NBC News poll results |
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The Dems have a massive ground game and field offices
everywhere, for instance. You can't throw a rock
without hitting a phone bank, canvassing group or field
office handing out signs.
Trump and the GOP have shut down most of their field
offices and their ground games are rather dismal this
time around. There is less money for down ballot races
now as Trump's daughter in law is now in charge that
the RNC and channeling the money mainly to Trump.
Rather than trying to get out the vote, he seems to be
chumming out red meat to increase militia participation
and saving the money for legal maneuvers after the
election.
He's not doing many interviews except to very far right
extreme orgs that are friendly to his views.
He's cut back on rallies, and doing them in some odd
places like Coachella which is not a battleground state
for him.
He's getting increasingly crazy and using fascistic and
authoritarian language more and more. This doesn't win
over new voters, it incites his most radical ones
instead. Telling people at rallies that he's going to
throw those who don't support him in a camp, or send
the military to round them up, isn't exactly an
endearing campaign message to win new people. "Vote for
me or else" ever has worked well. it only works to
ratchet up the violence level of his base that's
shrinking, but condensing into the most crazy.
It appears he's given up on winning votes. I think he
knows the election doesn't look good itself, and has
moved on to Plans B and C already, saving money for
those battles.
That's my opinion.
But, i do not think he will will the election at the
ballot box for all these reasons and more.
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442506 |
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Date: October 15, 2024 at 15:36:10
From: ryan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: How different turnout models change the NBC News poll results |
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drove by the republican headquarters in eureka yesterday and it was all shuttered up...looked deserted...
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442520 |
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Date: October 15, 2024 at 17:21:35
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: How different turnout models change the NBC News poll results |
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yup.
I'm telling ya..winning over any more voters is not
where they're putting their money right now. I think
they've given up on the election (plan A) part of their
program.
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