Trump is in a better polling spot now than he was against Clinton or Biden
Portrait of David Jackson David Jackson
USA TODAY
WASHINGTON - If polls are any guide - and there are many questions
about them - Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is in better
shape now than he was at this time in 2020 and in his winning White
House campaign of 2016.
Yes, Trump trails Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris in most
polls. But the all-important caveat is that he's down against the
incumbent vice president by smaller margins than he faced in his first two
general elections - both of which saw him score higher with actual voters
than the ones who responded to pollsters.
Certainly, Republicans are counting on what some pollsters have called
the "hidden Trump vote," although pollsters also say there's no certainty
that group still exists. During a rally Wednesday in Reading, Pennsylvania,
Trump claimed to have a poll showing him up 3 percentage points in the
Keystone State, "which probably means 10."
The Trump campaign, which lost the 2016 popular vote to Democrat
Hillary Clinton by a little more than 2 percentage points but won enough
states to prevail in the Electoral College, also follows the theory that the
closer the national polls in 2024, the better his chances to win more
electoral votes.
That's not a given, the pollsters said.
At a viewing party on Sept. 10, 2024, in Washington, D.C., people watch
former President Donald Trump debate Vice President Kamala Harris in
Philadelphia.
During this cycle, pollsters have changed their methodologies, in part to
account for the “ hidden” Trump voters; including people who plan to vote
for him but don’t want to say it publicly, or other supporters who are hard
to find via traditional polling methods like telephone calls. Also, different
groups of voters are showing more signs of increased participation in the
election because of new issues, from anti-abortion laws to the rising cost
of living.
"There are fundamentals in question that no one can answer until Election
Day," said pollster Frank Luntz.
Also, the national polls are less important than individual state polls, and
they're pretty much tied as well. Most polls are well within the margin of
error in the seven key battleground states: Pennsylvania, Michigan,
Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina.
"The only thing you can say for sure is that the seven swing states are all
really close," said Republican pollster Whit Ayres. "They're all effectively
tied."
As of Friday, the Real Clear Politics average of recent national polls give
Harris a 1.8% lead over Trump.
At this time four years ago, Democratic nominee Joe Biden had a lead of
10.3 percentage points over then-President Trump in the RCP national
average; Biden won the popular and electoral votes by much smaller
margins. In 2016, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton led the RCP national
average by 6%.
Both of those elections were much closer.
Back in 2016, Clinton won the popular vote over Trump by 48.2% to 46.1%
(the rest of the votes were scattered among third-party candidates,
notably Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill
Stein). Trump, however, won the Electoral College by a margin of 304-227
(plus seven "faithless electors" who voted for other candidates).
US President-elect Donald Trump (C) kisses his wife Melania as former
presidents and their spouses welcome him upon his arrival on January 20,
2017 at the US Capitol in Washington, DC for his swearing-in ceremony.
(From L-R) President Jimmy Carter and wife Rosalynn, President Bill
Clinton and wife former Secretary of State and presidential candidate
Hillary Clinton, US First Lady Michelle Obama and Dr. Jill Biden , wife of
US Vice-President Joe Biden.
Four years later, Biden won the popular vote over Trump by a bigger
margin, 51.3% to 46.9%. He also took the Electoral College by 306-232.
Simon Rosenberg, a Democratic strategist who studies data, said
pollsters have corrected previous methodology errors. He also noted that
Republican candidates for the U.S. House and Senate underperformed
polls in the 2022 midterm elections, and that Trump himself
underperformed polling in this year's Republican presidential primaries.
Harris and the Democrats are just as likely to have the hidden vote this
time around, he said.
"The election is really close," Rosenberg said. "Everything is in the margin
of error ... But because we have meaningful financial and ground
advantages, we are still more likely to pull it out."
Ultimately, no one really knows if this election will be more like 2016 or
more like 2020 - or even something altogether different.
"I think it's somewhere in between," Luntz said. "And that's why it's too
close to call."
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