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442305 |
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Date: October 12, 2024 at 09:27:21
From: old timer, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Trump’s chances edge up in presidential race |
URL: Trump’s chances edge up in presidential race |
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Trump’s chances edge up in presidential race
BY NIALL STANAGE - 10/12/24 6:00 AM ET
Vice President Harris has lost some of her mojo in the battle for the White
House.
Former President Trump’s chances of a second term are edging up, and
Democrats are fretful.
To be clear, Harris might well become the next president. But the small
advantage she enjoyed after a strong launch to her candidacy, including a
smooth Democratic National Convention and a powerful debate
performance against Trump last month, has all but vanished.
The election forecast from The Hill and Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) now
gives Harris a 51 percent chance of victory on Nov. 5. That’s down from a
high of 56 percent in late September.
In The Hill/DDHQ battleground state polling averages as of Friday
afternoon, Trump led in five of the seven states and Harris in just two.
When this month began, Harris had a 4-3 edge.
Caveats are important in an election where the polling margins are so
tight.
First, the polls could simply be wrong, and big issues — abortion for
Harris, immigration for Trump — could see higher turnout for either
candidate than pollsters are projecting.
Second, shifts of a percentage point or two, even in polling averages,
could be statistical “noise” rather than real evidence of movement.
Third, polls offer only a snapshot, and there is still time for new
developments to have an impact — especially in this dramatic year.
For example, the degree to which Trump has pushed false information
regarding federal recovery efforts after Hurricane Helene and Hurricane
Milton has drawn fire from Harris, President Biden and independent
observers.
If there is any public backlash to his actions, it won’t show up in polls for a
few days.
Still, the big trend over the past week or so is a movement, by a small but
clear margin, toward Trump.
Battleground states are tightening
Harris has led consistently in national polls since shortly after Biden
dropped his reelection bid. This continues to be the case. She has a 2.9-
point edge in The Hill/DDHQ national polling average.
The problem is, a national advantage only takes you so far.
Twice this century, in 2000 and 2016, the Democratic presidential
nominee has won the national popular vote and lost the election. In 2020,
Biden won the popular vote by a comfortable 4.4 points — but he defeated
Trump in the Electoral College only because he won three crucial states by
a whisker.
The signs in the battlegrounds are worrisome for Harris.
In The Hill/DDHQ averages, she has now lost the lead to Trump in
Michigan and Wisconsin. In the former, she led by roughly 2 points in mid-
August. In the latter — a state that has seen some of the biggest polling
misses in the past two presidential elections — she led by almost 5 points
in late August.
It’s worth underscoring just how tight the polling is in the seven key
states. Nowhere does either candidate have an edge of more than 1 point.
Still, if every battleground fell exactly in line with its polling average in The
Hill/DDHQ analysis — and all other results remained unchanged from 2020
— Trump would win the Electoral College by a clear 287-251 margin.
Other prominent polling averages, from Nate Silver and data site 538,
have Harris still leading in Michigan and Wisconsin, albeit by narrower
margins than before.
Still, the overall sense of an advancing Trump is enough to set off loud
alarm bells among Democrats.
Harris’s media tour was only OK
Harris has been much more visible in media settings over the past week,
pushing back against criticism from the right that she was dodging
scrutiny.
A CBS “60 Minutes” interview was the most substantive of those
appearances. She also guested on ABC’s “The View,” CBS’s “The Late
Show with Stephen Colbert,” SiriusXM’s “The Howard Stern Show” and,
on Thursday, a town hall event with Univision in Nevada.
She had some good moments. On “The View,” she unveiled a plan to make
Medicare pay for at-home care — and spoke affectingly about caring for
her late mother during Shyamala Harris’s battle with cancer.
But other moments were rockier, including evasive answers on how to pay
for her economic plans during the “60 Minutes” interview.
Even in the friendlier milieu of “The View,” an answer that Harris gave to a
question about what she would do differently from Biden — “there is not a
thing that comes to mind” — was seized upon by Team Trump.
None of these moments was disastrous. And Harris’s aides would argue
that she is being held to a much higher standard than the frequently
outlandish Trump.
But even so, Harris’s overall media performance was adequate at best —
adding to the sense that the honeymoon she enjoyed earlier in the
campaign is well and truly over.
Doubts are seeping in about Democratic enthusiasm
Former President Obama caused a stir when he hit the campaign trail this
week — and not only for the strength of his criticism of Trump.
Obama, speaking in Pittsburgh, suggested that Black men are being held
back from voting for Harris by sexism.
He noted that based on “reports” he was hearing from the campaign trail,
“we have not yet seen the same kinds of energy and turnout in all quarters
of our neighborhoods and communities as we saw when I was running.”
Obama added: “Part of it makes me think that, well, you just aren’t feeling
the idea of having a woman as president, and you’re coming up with other
alternatives and other reasons for that.”
The remarks were controversial in and of themselves — including among
some left-leaning commentators who felt the former president was
scolding Black men unfairly.
But his broader suggestion — that enthusiasm is short of where it needs
to be for Harris — adds more fuel to the fire of Democratic concern.
Money hasn’t created a buffer for Harris
Harris’s fundraising prowess has been a bright spot for her campaign.
The New York Times and other outlets reported this week that she has
raised more than $1 billion for her campaign and its affiliated committees,
outpacing Trump by a significant margin.
But Harris has also spent big money.
Bloomberg reported last month that the Harris team had spent an average
of $7.5 million every day in August, compared to $2.6 million a day for
Trump.
That expenditure was important to introduce Harris to voters as the
nominee and to fend off initial attacks.
But now the question arises as to why Harris’s financial advantage hasn’t
come close to catapulting her into a clear lead.
Notably, the Harris campaign is continuing to push for a second debate,
despite Trump declining to participate.
On Thursday, Harris campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon complained that
Trump’s refusal to debate was “a disservice to the American people.”
When Harris was riding a wave of enthusiasm and rising polls, such
statements looked like a campaign trying to press home an advantage.
Now, it increasingly sounds like a desire to try for a late game-changing
moment.
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442307 |
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Date: October 12, 2024 at 09:48:24
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Trump’s chances edge up in presidential race |
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from your own article:
"...Caveats are important in an election where the
polling margins are so tight.
First, the polls could simply be wrong, and big issues
— abortion for Harris, immigration for Trump — could
see higher turnout for either candidate than pollsters
are projecting.
Second, shifts of a percentage point or two, even in
polling averages,
could be statistical “noise” rather than real evidence
of movement.
Third, polls offer only a snapshot, and there is still
time for new
developments to have an impact — especially in this
dramatic year.
For example, the degree to which Trump has pushed false
information
regarding federal recovery efforts after Hurricane
Helene and Hurricane
Milton has drawn fire from Harris, President Biden and
independent
observers...."
And another thing, the republicans dropped somewhere
around 25 "junk polls" into the system to skew the
averages in the last week.
Be careful of "averages"
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442332 |
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Date: October 12, 2024 at 13:53:51
From: akira, [DNS_Address]
Subject: if polls aren't your thing, why don't you just move on?(NT) |
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442309 |
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Date: October 12, 2024 at 10:02:04
From: ryan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Trump’s chances edge up in presidential race |
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one talking head said the national polls may be skewed by as much as 2-4 points because of a gain of people for rump in the big blue states like new york, even though there are less behind his rumpness in the swing states...
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442308 |
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Date: October 12, 2024 at 10:01:46
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Trump’s chances edge up in presidential race |
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btw...why the republicans are dropping junk polls into
the system is to create another "red wave" illusion so
they can point to them and claim the election was
rigged and was stolen.
A new fly in the ointment may by disrupting the chain
of custody of ballots while in transit, or at the
ballot counting centers set up. Some of these attempts
may be violent.
Trump's going to, again, declare victory early before
the mail-in votes are fully counted and try to get vote
counting shut down...again...well, you remember how
this goes, right?
You all remember this playbook, right?
This is what is going on.
Don't buy it.
Be ready to understand what you are seeing and what is
actually going on.
And VOTE.
An overwhelming response from voters will make it so
much harder for them to run the same playbook.
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442310 |
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Date: October 12, 2024 at 10:11:38
From: old timer, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Trump’s chances edge up in presidential race |
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would you mind providing some evidence of these “junk polls” you are
claiming were released? asking because the media outlets i read
including thehill have been using the same polls they have been using all
year
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442317 |
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Date: October 12, 2024 at 10:40:47
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Trump’s chances edge up in presidential race |
URL: https://www.nj.com/politics/2024/10/harris-vs-trump-analyst-tells-panicky-dems-gop-is-creating-fake-polls-desperate-unhinged-trumpian.html |
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Fair enough old guy:
Harris vs. Trump analyst tells panicky Dems: GOP is
creating fake polls | ‘Desperate, unhinged, Trumpian’
Published: Oct. 12, 2024, 8:10 a.m.
As polls seem to indicate that former president Donald
Trump has momentum in some swing states with 24 days
remaining until the Nov. 5 presidential election,
Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg says: Don’t buy
it.
About a month ago, Rosenberg predicted that a slew of
polls by Republican organizations would flood the zone,
showing Trump leading — and, like clockwork, it has
happened.
The purpose is two-fold, Rosenberg said: To excite
Trump’s base and discourage Vice President Kamala
Harris’ supporters, while also providing Trump with
ammunition to say the election was rigged if he loses.
In a tweet thread, Rosenberg explained:
“Of last 15 general election polls released in PA, 12
have right/GOP affiliations. Their campaign to game the
polling averages and make it appear like Trump is
winning — when he isn’t — escalated in last few days.
“I urge journalists and researchers to dive into
FiveThirtyEight and see how the red wave pollsters have
flooded the zone again. MT, PA, NC were initial targets
but now it’s all 7 battleground states.
“This 2024 red wave op is much larger and involves many
more actors and polls than the red wave campaign in
2022. It also involves new players — Polymarket, Elon —
and feels far more desperate, frenetic, unhinged.
Trumpian.”
Rosenberg pointed to a New York Times autopsy on the
2022 midterm elections: “The ‘Red Wave’ Washout: How
Skewed Polls Fed a False Election Narrative.”
Rosenberg also referred to a recent New York Times
report — “Elon Musk is going all-in to elect Trump” —
that shows coordination between Twitter/X owner Elon
Musk and the Trump campaign.
Musk shut down a Twitter/X account that published
hacked materials from the Trump campaign. And according
to the New York Times, Musk and his team have set up a
war room in Pittsburgh to strategize with a team of
lawyers and public-relations professionals to help
Trump win.
On Thursday, American Muckrakers posted about emails it
received detailing how the conservative-leaning
Rasmussen Reports, which claims to be nonpartisan,
shared polling results with Trump advisers and campaign
officials like Dan Scavino, Susie Wiles, and John
McLaughlin.
“More than 25 organizations are now involved in red
wave 2024,” Rosenberg tweeted. “Last week, they dropped
27 polls. This week it’s more. Ferocity of effort to
make it look like Trump is winning clearly means they
don’t think he is.”
NYT autopsy of 2022:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/31/us/politics/polling-
election-2022-red-wave.html
NYT Elon Musk article:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/31/us/politics/polling-
election-2022-red-wave.html
re muckrakers leaked emails:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/31/us/politics/polling-
election-2022-red-wave.html
Also: Trump and Vance have started accusing democrats
of dropping fake polls. And what does that mean? Since
he always accuses the other side of what he's doing,
it's pretty much a confession LOL.
Here's more info on polls in general and what to be
careful of:
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/mistakes-to-
avoid-polls.html
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442319 |
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Date: October 12, 2024 at 10:59:44
From: old timer, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Trump’s chances edge up in presidential race |
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so the claims of fake republican polls comes from tweets from some
democrat strategist named rosenberg? you really have nothing to back up
that absurd claim other than an article about a democrat strategist’s
twitter posts??? twitter red???
where’s the meat on that bone?
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442320 |
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Date: October 12, 2024 at 11:14:26
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Trump’s chances edge up in presidential race |
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There was more than one link there, hon.
You can google more yourself if you like.
NYT is pretty meaty to back it up.
Which brings me back to my point: the polls (and some of
the averages) are not trustworthy right now.
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442322 |
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Date: October 12, 2024 at 11:56:25
From: old timer, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Trump’s chances edge up in presidential race |
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that’s some dishonest shit you are slinging red. the nyt article was looking
back at the 2022 midterms and about musk. i did look it up and there
doesn’t seems to be a damn thing to support the absurd claim that
republicans are dropping junk polls other than this article about some
dude’s tweet. even you must smell the stench of that shit
polls have reliably issues and most poll articles including this one discuss
those caveats. no need to dredge up a bunch of garbage to cloud the
issue
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442327 |
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Date: October 12, 2024 at 12:14:00
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Trump’s chances edge up in presidential race |
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except when the garbage fits.
Just sending out the warning now so you recognize it
when it comes.
You asked.
I provided.
It's not absurd if you've watch maga operate and how
they've operated in the past.
Certainly not as absurd as "They're eating the dogs!"
or the government is controlling hurricanes, or "what
top secret documents?"
I'm sure you've been directed to squelch any talk of
this.
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442321 |
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Date: October 12, 2024 at 11:52:48
From: ao, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Trump’s chances edge up in presidential race |
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Nothing the Republicans say is “trustworthy” ever. They are cheaters,
they lie, they steal. They are vile human beings that have no right to
participate in civil society. They are a disease.
Sorry OT, it’s just the simple truth.
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442323 |
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Date: October 12, 2024 at 12:00:52
From: old timer, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Trump’s chances edge up in presidential race |
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no need to apologize. i show posts like this to my friends who often don’t
believe people like you really exist
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442328 |
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Date: October 12, 2024 at 12:15:04
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Trump’s chances edge up in presidential race |
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You have a friend?
That's amazing, OT! Congrats!
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442329 |
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Date: October 12, 2024 at 12:16:35
From: ao, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Trump’s chances edge up in presidential race |
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Don’t get too excited Red, his friend’s name is Mary.
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442326 |
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Date: October 12, 2024 at 12:12:45
From: ao, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Trump’s chances edge up in presidential race |
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Children who lie face consequences. Every GOP member lies, and should
face the same. As long as you lie you have no right to participate in civil
society. That’s it. You’re no better than criminals. And deserve the same
fate. And the rest of us are holding our noses until you meet your’s.
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442324 |
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Date: October 12, 2024 at 12:04:50
From: ao, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Trump’s chances edge up in presidential race |
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Fuck man, how many people live in your head? Fucking amazing.. you
have friends? LOL!
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442318 |
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Date: October 12, 2024 at 10:56:05
From: ao, [DNS_Address]
Subject: The bottom line OT is, your team can’t win unless they cheat |
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And even then not so much..
Your horse is a loser OT, and always has been.. a fucking loser..
Which says a lot, reams, about those that support him. Seriously, I
wouldn’t trust a republican on any account. They are liars.
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