Harris faces challenge with union voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania
BY ALEXANDER BOLTON - 10/07/24 6:00 AM ET
Vice President Harris’s lack of traction with unionized blue-collar workers
has emerged as one of her biggest challenges to winning key states such
as Michigan and Pennsylvania, as polls show her significantly
underperforming Joe Biden’s performance with union workers in 2020.
Harris’s tenuous relationship with elements of organized labor is reflected
by the decisions of the Teamsters and the International Association of Fire
Fighters (IAFF) not to endorse her presidential campaign.
She narrowly avoided disaster when President Biden helped avert a
prolonged a port workers strike by brokering a tentative labor deal with
the International Longshoremen’s Association and the U.S. Maritime
Alliance on Thursday.
Especially concerning for Democrats is that Harris isn’t even polling as
well as Hillary Clinton did in 2016 among union voters.
Notably, Clinton ended up losing two key states, Michigan and
Pennsylvania, where unions represent more than 14 percent of the
workforce.
The loss of those two traditionally Democratic-leaning states along with
Wisconsin propelled Donald Trump to the White House.
Clinton led Trump among labor voters by 12 points eight years ago, while
Harris now leads Trump by only 9 points, according to polling data
aggregated by CNN.
On Election Day 2016, Clinton ended up winning 51 percent of union
households — compared to Trump’s 42 percent, according to exit polls.
Exit polls four years later showed Biden did much better among union-
affiliated voters. He carried 56 percent of union households — compared
to Trump’s 40 percent.
Unlike Clinton, Biden won Michigan and Pennsylvania, albeit narrowly.
Democratic strategists and progressive activists say there are several
factors driving Harris’s relatively weak polling among unionized voters.
Perhaps the biggest factor is that many union members simply don’t know
Harris as well as Biden.
Biden served 36 years in the Senate, representing a state near to the
labor hubs of Philadelphia, New Jersey and New York. He also had the
chance to introduce himself to union voters when he ran unsuccessfully
for president in 1988 and 2008.
“It’s just a product of them needing to get to know her. I think the
disadvantage she has is that Joe Biden is the most pro-union president
ever,” said Jonathan Kott, a Democratic strategist and former Senate aide.
Kott said Biden is a tough act to follow for Harris.
“He was the only president to be on a union picket line; he’s so over-the-
top pro-union,” he said.
Biden became the first president to join a picket line when he walked with
striking members of the United Auto Workers (UAW) at a General Motors
plant near Detroit in 2023.
Democratic strategists say the preference for Biden among union voters
may come down to his style and personality, something that would be
hard for Harris’s campaign to address through policy statements or get-
out-the-vote rallies.
“Biden has a sweet spot with labor that Kamala does not have,” said Ray
Zaccaro, a Democratic strategist who has worked with the labor
movement.
“Biden has had a special relationship with labor throughout his entire
career,” he added. “I don’t think there’s anything particularly lacking in
Harris’s position on labor, but there probably are some stylistic and
relationship differences for her to overcome.”
“She doesn’t love to walk the walk and talk the talk like they like to see it
done. She’s not a hail fellow well met, back-slapping [politician],” he
observed.
Harris dropped out of the 2020 presidential race before the Iowa
caucuses and didn’t have to run the gauntlet of competitive primaries this
year.
Instead, she has tried to ride on the Biden-Harris administration’s record,
but that hasn’t been enough to win over the trust of many union voters.
Democratic and progressive strategists say Harris needs to emphasize
the bread-and-butter economic issues that are top of mind to many union
voters, such as bringing manufacturing back to the United States,
combating the outsourcing of American jobs and fighting inflation.
They say former President Trump’s pledge to slap 60 percent tariffs on
imports from China and 20 percent tariffs on imports from other countries
— and his pledge to crack down on migrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico
border — appeal to many rank-and-file union members.
And some of them acknowledge that more culturally conservative union
members don’t feel as comfortable voting for Harris to become the
nation’s first female president.
“Trump’s tariffs and get-rid-of-the-immigrants [message] is a very
attractive kind of proposition to people who feel like their jobs were taken
abroad, and Trump gets some credit from union guys for breaking with the
free-trade consensus,” said Bob Borosage, a progressive activist and co-
director of Campaign for America’s Future.
“She’s a woman, she’s African American and she’s from California. So
there’s a set of credibility hurdles I think she had to overcome to prove
that she was one of them,” Borosage said.
Harris’s running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D), is helping Harris,
Borosage said. Walz is a former public school teacher and former member
of the National Education Association.
But Borosage argued Harris needs to spend more time and energy
promoting a progressive economic agenda — something Sen. Bernie
Sanders (I-Vt.) has also urged — to win over working-class voters.
“I think she’s not done it enough,” he said. “If she really focused on it,
argued it and stayed with it, that would work.
“But I think if you’re parading your Republican support and your elite
support and you’re making points about bipartisanship and democracy,
you’re not talking about trade and jobs,” he added, referring to Harris’s
decision to showcase her support from anti-Trump Republicans such as
former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.).
Borosage said Harris’s relatively small lead among union voters in the
polls is cause for concern in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
“It’s neck and neck. You got to be concerned,” he said, describing union
voters as “very” critical in those key states.
Jim McLaughlin, a Republican pollster who works for Trump, said “private-
sector union types like the operating engineers, the Teamsters, etc., they
are overwhelming supporting Donald Trump.”
“That’s why Teamsters remained neutral,” he said.
McLaughlin pointed out that a recent poll of rank-and-file Teamsters
members found 58 percent of them supported Trump, while only 31
percent supported Harris.
Trump claimed at a July 20 rally that he would get 95 percent of the
UAW’s vote because of unionized autoworkers’ opposition to importing
electric vehicles made in China.
“The bottom line is at the end of the day, a lot of these union workers that
used to be die-hard Democrats, they support Donald Trump,” McLaughlin
added. “When you go to the so-called ‘blue wall’ of Pennsylvania,
Michigan and Wisconsin — those are the three where it’s really going to
matter.”
Zaccaro, the Democratic strategist, predicted Harris would win a strong
majority of union voters, but he acknowledged Trump has traction with
some pockets of them.
“Where you see a split, it’s an indication that there is a movement within
the labor world that is more aligned with MAGA, protectionism, nationalist
identity,” he said.
He said some union voters increasingly support “some of the messaging
that the Trump campaign is putting out.”
One labor official who requested anonymity said many members of his
union come from more culturally conservative households and aren’t very
familiar with Harris’s record on labor issues.
“We have a lot of Republicans in our membership,” the official said, adding
that union members reflect society’s spectrum of different political views.
That diversity within union membership, however, didn’t stop labor groups
from embracing Biden in 2020, as well as Clinton in 2016 and former
President Obama in 2012 and 2008.
The Teamsters endorsed the Democratic candidate in all four of those
years.
The IAFF endorsed Obama in 2008 and 2012 and Biden in 2020 but did
not endorse Clinton in 2016.
One key difference between then and now is Harris’s sudden rise to the
Democratic Party’s nomination, which hasn’t given her much time to build
relationships with unionized and union-affiliated voters.
“Biden had 35 years of history with us, but I don’t think our members
know Harris that well yet, or know what she’s done, what her positions
have been and that she’s been on the picket lines,” the labor official said.
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