Michigan and Georgia Arab American voters sour on Harris
BY YASH ROY - 10/07/24 6:00 AM ET
Vice President Harris is facing growing signs that Arab American and
Muslim voters are souring on her in the key battlegrounds of Michigan and
Georgia as anger rises over the expanding conflict in the Middle East.
A poll from the Arab American Institute showed former President Trump
leading Harris with those voters by 4 points nationally, amid criticism of
the Biden administration’s handling of Israel’s wars against Hezbollah in
Lebanon and Hamas and in Gaza.
The survey comes as Trump and third-party candidates such as Jill Stein
have stepped up outreach to the more than 200,000 Arab American and
Muslim voters in Michigan, one of seven key battlegrounds that could
determine who wins the White House.
Meanwhile, in Georgia, leaders have begun sounding the alarm that the
more than 150,000 Arab American and Muslim voters there might not turn
out in a state President Biden won by fewer than 12,000 votes in 2020.
“There’s double trouble that has to be addressed, both the ongoing
situation in Gaza but also the now new circumstance created in Lebanon,”
said Jim Zogby, the founding director of the Arab American Institute and a
former adviser to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). “I don’t know where Harris’s
majority comes from if you’re losing a percentage of nonwhite voters, a
percentage of young voters and a significant percentage of Arab
American voters. I don’t know where you get the rest from.”
According to David Dulio, a political science professor at Michigan’s
Oakland University, Arab Americans and Muslims have been “critical” to
the Democratic coalition built in the state.
“Even a small shift in the support in the community could have an
incredibly large impact on the final outcome,” Dulio said. “It’s a small
portion of the coalition, but it’s a critical one.”
As Israel expands the conflict into Lebanon, Democrats in Michigan are
sounding the alarm bell.
“I’m not sure people realize how much of an added dimension this brings
here,” former House Rep. Andy Levin (D-Mich.) said, referring to Israel’s
new war front. “Lebanese Americans are like the grandaddies of the Arab
American community in Michigan.”
Since the Oct. 7 attacks, Arab American support for Democrats has
cratered. In the first survey by the Arab American Institute after Hamas’s
incursion, Biden registered 17 percent support with the community.
The National Uncommitted Movement launched a campaign for voters to
cast uncommitted ballots during the primary, and close to 1 million
Democrats did so.
The National Uncommitted Movement recently declined to endorse Harris,
but many of its leaders have come together with other Arab American
leaders to form Arab Americans for Harris-Walz.
While Harris has more than doubled Democratic support among Arab
Americans and Muslims, she is still far behind the 60 percent of the
community that voted for Biden in 2020. Democrats have historically
enjoyed a 2-to-1 advantage among Arab American and Muslim voters.
Harris has worked to regain the Democrats’ footing within the community,
creating the first Arab American outreach position in a presidential
campaign.
But members of the party campaigning alongside Harris’s Arab outreach
liaison say they have had a difficult time connecting with voters.
“She’s very good, but she’s been having a hell of a time,” Zogby said. “I’ve
been going to a couple of things with her, and it’s not been pretty.”
Harris also spoke with leaders of the National Uncommitted Movement in
August. That same month, her campaign manager also met with Arab and
Muslim leaders.
This week, Walz spoke at the Emgage Action “Million Muslim Votes” event,
while Harris met with Arab leaders before speaking in Detroit.
“The Vice President is committed to work to earn every vote, unite our
country, and to be a President for all Americans,” a Harris spokesperson
told The Hill in a statement. “Throughout her career, Vice President Harris
has been steadfast in her support of our country’s diverse Muslim
community, ensuring first and foremost that they can live free from the
hateful policies of the Trump administration.”
However, some members of the community have dismissed her efforts,
saying they are not genuine.
“They have a role for Arab American outreach director for the campaign,
but they don’t have a role like that for the actual administration,” Soujoud
Hamade, president of the Michigan chapter of the Arab American Bar
Association, told The Hill.
“Most of us know better at this point than to believe their lies anymore,
because they’ll come and feed us a bunch of lies so that we vote for
them,” added Hamade, who plans on voting for Stein.
Others have taken a more moderate tone, recognizing the efforts of Harris
but adding that it is not enough to win over Arab American and Muslim
voters angry with the U.S. support for the Israeli government.
“The liaisons are doing their best, but they are not decisionmakers. But
the concern right now is that decisionmakers are not engaging with the
community directly,” said Georgia State Rep. Ruwa Romman (D), who is
supporting Harris.
“Her team has been doing the outreach, and it’s been night and day
compared to the Biden campaign,” Romman added. “But, if you’re a
person who wants the bombs to stop and the candidate says, ‘Yes, I
intend to stop the bombs,’ and that doesn’t happen, it makes you lose
hope.”
The National Uncommitted Movement floated Romman as a potential
Palestinian speaker at the Democratic National Convention. In the end, the
event did not feature a Palestinian speaker on the main stage.
While Harris tries to rebuild her party’s relationship with the community,
Trump and Stein have capitalized on their anger in an effort to make
inroads.
Trump has been airing ads in Arab American communities in Michigan, and
his former director of national intelligence, Richard Grenell, and Tiffany
Trump’s father-in-law, Massad Boulos, a Lebanese American
businessman, have been leading his outreach to the community.
Their efforts appear to be succeeding with at least a part of the
community.
“His level of outreach has been constant and recurring, and the fact that
there’s been this outreach placing value and worth in our community and
saying that we deserve a seat at the table, which hasn’t happened from
the other side,” Samraa Luqman, a Michigan activist who wrote in Bernie
Sanders for president in 2020 but has now endorsed Trump, told The Hill.
Luqman added that Trump had personally committed to resolving the
conflict in meetings with her and other Arab and Muslim voters in
Michigan. Luqman also believes Trump’s “personality quirks” might lead
to a quicker resolution of the conflict compared to the current efforts led
by Biden.
“My aim is to punish Democrats for their support of genocide,” she added.
“You cannot expect any change in policies or in the Democrats unless you
actually punish them.”
According to Luqman, many members of her community are “afraid to
voice their support publicly right now.”
Romman said Harris’s “inability to distinguish herself from Biden on this
issue” has also made it easier for third-party candidates such as Stein to
make “headway into the community.”
Polls have shown Stein registering anywhere from 12 percent to more than
30 percent of Arab American support.
Democratic National Committee Chair Jaime Harrison dismissed some of
these polls, saying “it’s hard for [him] to believe” the latest numbers.
“We know that Kamala Harris sees Arab Americans and understands that
they need to have a seat at the table, that they need to be respected,” he
added.
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