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441526 |
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Date: September 23, 2024 at 10:34:54
From: old timer, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Democrats fear pollsters are undercounting Trump |
URL: Democrats fear pollsters are undercounting Trump |
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Democrats fear pollsters are undercounting Trump
BY ALEXANDER BOLTON - 09/23/24 6:00 AM ET
Senate Democrats are worried pollsters are once again undercounting the
Trump vote and say Vice President Harris’s slim lead in battleground
states, especially Pennsylvania, is cause for serious concern.
After getting shocked by Hillary Clinton’s upset loss in 2016 and surprised
by then-President Trump’s stronger-than-expected performance in 2020,
Democratic lawmakers are bracing themselves for another election night
surprise.
They hope that Harris can overperform the polls herself by driving young
voters and Black and Latino voters to the polls in big numbers, but
acknowledge that whether a larger-than-expected pro-Harris coalition
emerges is an untested hypothesis.
“Polling has really been seriously damaged since 2016. And that’s one of
the truths, is that Trump is going to be tough in Pennsylvania, and that’s
absolutely the truth,” Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) said when asked
whether he’s worried pollsters may be undercounting Trump’s support in
his home state.
Democratic lawmakers are growing nervous that their party may once
again feel lulled into a false sense of optimism amid polls showing Harris
with small but consistent leads in three crucial states that make up the
“blue wall”: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Sen. Raphael Warnock (D), who represents the swing state of Georgia,
said it’s impossible to know who’s ahead at this point because many polls
show Harris and Trump running neck and neck, within the margin of error.
“We know this election is going to be close. It’s going to be close in the
battleground states, including Georgia, which is why I’m doing everything
I can to make sure we put Georgia in our column,” he said. “The only poll
that matters is Nov. 5, right?
“We talk about margin of error for a reason,” he said.
One Democratic senator who requested anonymity acknowledged both
Clinton and President Biden were doing better in the polls against Trump
in 2016 and 2020, respectively, than Harris is performing right now.
“That’s ominous. There’s no question that is concerning, but you’re
working as hard as you can work, no matter what. My sense there’s not a
lot more you can do than we’re already doing,” the lawmaker said.
The Democratic senator said pollsters have trouble gauging Trump’s
support because many voters who support him may not want to interact
with them or don’t want to speak candidly about their political views.
“The only thing I can come up with is that people do feel embarrassed,”
the senator said. “Most of what he preaches, most of us have taught our
children to try to not be that way on the playground. So there’s a certain
amount of reluctance to admit I’m going to vote for somebody whose
conduct I tell my children is wrong.”
A second Democratic senator, who requested anonymity to discuss
skepticism about Harris’s lead, said, “I don’t think any poll right now
means much of anything.”
“I’m surprised that people look back on the Trump economy delusionally
as being so good, which I think is the major factor that supports his
approval rating,” the lawmaker said of Trump’s resilience in the polls
despite numerous legal setbacks and being heavily outspent by the Harris
campaign.
If Harris performs as the polls — on average — predict, she will be elected
president in November.
But Trump is within the margin of error in the most important battleground
states, and he has a history of outperforming his polling averages,
particularly in Midwestern states where his populist message appeals to
blue-collar white voters.
Public polls had Trump trailing Biden by an average of 5 percentage
points, consistently, during the final two months of the 2020 presidential
campaign. But he ended up losing the key state of Pennsylvania to Biden
by only 1.2 percentage points — 50 percent to 48.8 percent.
Likewise, public polls showed Trump trailing Clinton by between 3.5
points and 7 points in Pennsylvania during the final eight weeks of the
2016 campaign. Yet Trump ended up winning Pennsylvania despite never
leading Clinton in any of the public polling averages of the Keystone State.
Political handicappers generally consider Pennsylvania, which has 19
electoral votes, a key state for Harris. If she loses there, then she would
have to beat Trump in either Georgia or North Carolina — two states where
the GOP nominee is hanging on to slim leads — to have a realistic chance
of winning more than 270 electoral votes.
A New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College poll of likely voters
in Pennsylvania conducted Sept. 11-16 showed Harris with a 4-point lead
over Trump in the state.
But Republicans argue that poll undersampled Trump voters. Only 37
percent of the poll’s respondents said they voted for Trump in the 2020
presidential election, well short of the 48.8 percent he won in the state
four years ago.
“I used to think it was incompetence. Now I think it’s part of the strategy.
They’re trying to drive down enthusiasm. Why are you going to vote for
somebody if you think they’re going to lose? And they’re trying to drive
down fundraising and donations,” said a GOP pollster who argued that
some media organizations are biased against Trump.
David Paleologos, the director of the Suffolk University Political Research
Center, said it’s difficult for pollsters to predict who will actually vote in an
election.
“We could be calling rural Pennsylvania today and a Trump voter could
say, ‘I hate politics. I’m not going to vote.’ … But that person in four weeks
could be very much animated if contacted by Trump or the NRA, and then
they become a likely voter. That’s why they say polls are a snapshot in
time,” he said.
Democratic lawmakers and pollsters acknowledge that new public polls
showing Harris with slim leads over Trump in Michigan, Pennsylvania,
Nevada and Wisconsin — or Trump with slim leads over Harris in Arizona,
Georgia and North Carolina — don’t mean much six weeks before Election
Day.
What’s alarming for Democrats is that Trump has a track record of
outperforming the polls, especially in the Midwestern states Harris is
counting on.
“Figuring out the turnout is the hardest thing out there. This cycle there
may be a surprise Trump vote and a surprise Harris vote,” Democratic
pollster Celinda Lake said.
“I, too, share the concern that there are going to be some surprises. What
accentuates my concern is when you poll people who have not voted in
’20 but are planning to vote today, they are disproportionately Trump
voters,” Lake said.
“If you look at first-time voters who didn’t vote in ’20, they are leaning
toward Trump and they’re very low information and they like his kind of
style. And they like Elon Musk and they like a lot of things like that. I worry
about that. I think it’s definitely a concern, and I think we just have to get
enough margin to compensate for that,” she added.
The good news for Democrats is that they have an edge over Republicans
in registering new voters, as many young women in battleground states
have become more interested in politics since the Supreme Court’s
decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, which
overturned the federal right to an abortion.
“The new registration has been disproportionately Democratic younger
women, around the abortion issue,” Lake noted.
The challenge for the Harris campaign and other Democratic candidates
will be getting those newly registered voters to cast early ballots and
show up to the polls on Election Day.
“About two-thirds of the new registrants are female and are very
advantageous to the Democrats, but we got to make sure they turn out to
vote. They tend to be disproportionately pro-choice younger women.
There’s been a real surge of them in North Carolina, and it’s one of the
things really making North Carolina possible” for Harris, Lake said.
“I think it helps when you have an [abortion rights] initiative on the ballot,
and I think it helps when you have a woman candidate on the ballot,” she
added.
Several states have abortion rights-related measures on the ballot this
fall, including Arizona, Florida, Montana and Nevada. Arizona and Nevada
are presidential battleground states, and all four have competitive Senate
races.
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[441529] [441527] [441530] [441532] [441533] |
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441529 |
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Date: September 23, 2024 at 10:50:36
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Democrats fear pollsters are undercounting Trump |
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If the primaries are an example, they're overcounting
trump voters, not undercounting...and undercounting
democrats.
But, it's like I said, the polls are messed up, so who
cares anymore?
Democrats still have PTSD from 2016, where again, the
polls were fucked up.
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441527 |
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Date: September 23, 2024 at 10:41:53
From: ryan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Democrats fear pollsters are undercounting Trump |
URL: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4894389-michael-steele-predicts-harris-victory/ |
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Michael Steele predicts Harris will flip Florida, North Carolina
by Sarah Fortinsky - 09/23/24 12:43 PM ET
Former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Steele, now a frequent critic of the party, said Sunday he thinks Vice President Harris will win the general election, flipping North Carolina and Florida in the process.
“This coalition that’s being created right now by Kamala Harris and Tim Walz is not just one to watch, but it’s going to be one that the history books will study, when, I think, she takes this thing to victory,” Steele said in an interview on MSNBC’s “The Sunday Show with Jonathan Capehart.”
“Florida and North Carolina will fall, along with Georgia,” Steele continued.
Steele agreed with author and podcast host Steve Phillips, who said Florida and North Carolina “are now in play” for Harris, pointing to an increase in enthusiasm and in support from Black voters in key swing states.
Phillips said in a recent piece discussed in the MSNBC interview that “nearly every state Barack Obama won in 2012 is within reach and winnable by Harris.”
“I agree with Steve’s argument,” Steele said, and he recalled saying soon after Harris replaced President Biden as the party’s candidate that “at the end of the day, this election for the Democrats could be bigger than Obama, that what Kamala Harris had the potential to do then — which is now being borne out and certainly reflected in what Steve just said — is she could create a different coalition.”
The Supreme Court’s Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision — which overturned the federal right to abortion — could open up an opportunity for Harris to tap into the center-right segment of voters who oppose highly restrictive abortion laws but might have otherwise supported Republican candidates, Steele said.
He added that he thinks Harris has the potential to bring together a historic coalition that extends beyond just Obama and Biden voters.
Steele said Harris’s coalition could be “one that was more than just a combination of Obama and Biden, meaning, ’08 and ’20, but even adding in new elements. Because what has happened transformationally, in terms of issues, is Dobbs. Abortion is now in play.”
“What that does is it draws in center-right voters who would otherwise be aligned with the Republican Party, now falling away because of the heavy-handed nature in which Republicans want to control women’s bodies and their rights, take away their rights, and that does not sit well, either,” Steele said.
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441530 |
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Date: September 23, 2024 at 10:52:28
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Democrats fear pollsters are undercounting Trump |
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yeah...and texas will flip..and ..and..
then they will break our hearts again.
It's like Lucy and the football, no?
Michael Steele is smart and entertaining, but would take
all that with a great big grain of vindictive salt.
If it happens, of course I'll be the first to cheer, but
I'm not going to hold my breath.
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441532 |
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Date: September 23, 2024 at 10:54:10
From: ryan, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Democrats fear pollsters are undercounting Trump |
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if harris could win florida, it is all over...battleground states insignificant...but yeah, steele...he really does dislike the rump though...
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441533 |
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Date: September 23, 2024 at 11:33:22
From: Redhart, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Democrats fear pollsters are undercounting Trump |
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True, it would..but you have DeSatan down there working
hard to keep anyone who looks sideways blue away from
the polls. It's a hard sell.
Now what Steele could be doing is trying to stoke
"fear" of losing Florida in the GOP so that they feel
they have to spend their money down there. It's one of
the most expensive ad-buy states in the country. The
GOP could waste a lot of money there in short order,
money they wouldn't be spending elsewhere.
I listen to his podcasts and one with Rick Wilson (from
Florida) and this sounds like a plausible strategic
play based on what they say about it.
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