Democrats privately worry the Teamsters non-endorsement is a warning
sign
Harris still has work to do to win over older, white, working-class voters
who make up a large portion of the electorate in the Rust Belt.
By Holly Otterbein and Elena Schneider
09/20/2024 12:28 PM EDT
PHILADELPHIA — Eight years after Donald Trump shattered the Blue Wall,
some Democrats worry he could do it again.
Most polls show Kamala Harris tied or leading Trump in the critical
battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin after a
commanding performance at the debate. Party leaders are projecting
confidence publicly. But on the ground, jittery elected officials,
strategists and allies are quietly pointing to warning signs for the vice
president.
The Teamsters withholding an endorsement from Harris this week — after
internal polling showed most respondents backing Trump — is sparking
fresh concerns that the GOP nominee could have higher-than-expected
support among union members, especially men. Labor leaders in other
sectors attest that, like in 2016 and 2020, the former president has
maintained a grip on key parts of their rank-and-file despite his anti-union
record. Privately, Democrats say Harris still has work to do to win over
older, white, working-class voters who make up a large portion of the
electorate in the Rust Belt and have been hit by high prices.
“Candidly, Trump has a solid, solid base of working-class people that have
bought into his message,” said Jimmy Williams, president of the
International Union of Painters and Allied Trades, which has endorsed
Harris. “It’s movable and it’s been moving. But it’s not like some tide
that’s turned.”
Some Teamsters leaders have questioned the methodology of the polling
showing Trump winning majority support among the union’s members. But
one pro-Harris union official, who was granted anonymity to speak freely,
spoke in dire terms about it. The person said it is a “red flag” that is
reminiscent of the 2016 election, when Hillary Clinton underperformed
among union households despite winning the majority of top labor
endorsements.
Teamsters president says lack of endorsement is a 'wake up call'
“Hard not to have HRC flashbacks right now, to be honest, that stuff might
be wrong beneath the surface,” the official said. “I hope it’s not.”
Democratic strategists said Harris’ performance in November could come
down to the historic gender gap, especially among blue-collar voters, that
has so far defined this election.
Pete Giangreco, a longtime Democratic consultant who has worked on
several presidential campaigns, said he is “optimistic” about Harris’
standing because women decisively support her.
“The good news is that she’s doing better than most Democrats ever have
with white non-college women. But the bad news is that with white non-
college men, we’re seeing a step back,” he said. “The gender gap is
growing wider because those groups are heading in two different
directions, and how does it net out? We’ve got 47 days to figure that out.”
Democrats in swing states said another factor at play is that Harris is an
unknown quantity to many older white voters. Some argued that Harris is
not hitting Trump enough over past comments — which he has sought to
walk back — threatening Social Security and Medicare.
“I’m worried about her with [seniors] … most of all, I just think they don’t
know her,” said a Pennsylvania Democratic elected official, granted
anonymity to discuss the issue candidly. “She should be coming in on
Medicare and Social Security like non-fucking-stop.”
Another top Democratic elected official in Pennsylvania said: “How much
time do you hear the top of the ticket talking about that issue? Almost
nothing. They just have to talk about it more.”
In an interview with POLITICO Playbook, Harris senior adviser Brian Fallon
noted that a number of Teamsters councils and locals in Pennsylvania,
Wisconsin and other battleground states unveiled endorsements of the
vice president this week. “So you’ve seen huge expressions of support
from the rank and file in the form of the locals that have announced in just
the last 24 hours,” he said.
When it comes to the question of winning over more working-class white
voters, Fallon said, “I will make a prediction. I think that it’s quite possible
that by the end of this election cycle that she’ll be more trusted than
Trump on handling the economy.”
On the campaign trail, Harris has promised to fight price gouging and
expressed sympathy for voters dealing with high prices. The vast majority
of top national unions have thrown their support behind her, and her labor
allies have touted that she is a leader in a pro-union administration.
The Harris campaign also pointed to TV and digital advertising that
attacks Trump for planning “severe cuts to Medicare and Social Security,”
as well as the fact that the vice president has made a similar argument
during campaign stops and at the Democratic National Convention. And
Democrats said they are heartened by the fact that Harris has been
campaigning in exurban and rural areas in battleground states where
older, white, working-class voters live.
But Democratic pollsters also noted public surveys that show Republicans
drawing nearly even with their party in handling Social Security and
Medicare. One poll, conducted on behalf of the labor-aligned Alliance for
Retired Americans, found that Democrats had just a 1- to 2-percentage
point advantage on those issues compared with the GOP. The group’s
pollster described it as “concerningly tight, given the party’s historic
advantages on these issues,” according to a memo released last month.
In Pennsylvania, Republicans have sent out numerous mailers to voters
alleging that Trump will protect Social Security and Medicare, while Harris
will “bankrupt” the programs due to an “amnesty plan for illegals.”
Fact-checkers said the claims are false. But some Democrats are
concerned they’re nonetheless persuasive.
“When races are decided by thousands of votes, and you see a warning
sign, like numbers on Social Security and Medicare, you need to take it
seriously,” said Jason McGrath, a Democratic pollster who led the survey.
“If we do win back or persuade seniors, it’s on that issue in particular.”
In Michigan, former Democratic Rep. Andy Levin said “working-class
people, in general, I think will definitely determine the election, and I think
that we’re going to duke it out right to the end.” He argued that United
Auto Workers President Shawn Fain’s endorsement of Harris is a major
asset in his swing state: “He will help Democrats cut into Trump’s
numbers with white, non-college men.”
“Working-class people, in general, I think will definitely determine the
election.”
Former Michigan Rep. Andy Levin
One Democratic strategist in Michigan said Trump’s advantages with that
cohort — and plans to activate them across the Blue Wall states — are
obvious. Trump held a town hall in Flint, Mich. earlier this week.
“This is not a secret,” the person said. “In Michigan, one of [Harris’]
particular challenges is with white working-class men in the I-75 corridor
from Detroit to Flint. … She’s got to shore up those voters.”
Both Harris and Trump met with Teamsters President Sean O’Brien and
other Teamsters members in an effort to win the union’s backing. In a
statement, Trump spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said, “By unleashing
American energy, slashing job-killing regulations, and adopting pro-
growth America First tax and trade policies, President Trump will quickly
rebuild the greatest economy in history and put Social Security on a
stronger footing for generations to come.”
Officials in President Joe Biden’s administration acknowledge
disappointment that the Teamsters didn’t offer an endorsement of Harris,
particularly after the president took action to protect the pensions of the
union’s workers and retirees, according to a senior aide not authorized to
speak publicly. Harris cast the tie-breaking vote in the Senate for that
bailout, which was included in the American Rescue Plan.
Still, the Teamsters’ snub didn’t come as a complete surprise after
O’Brien spoke at the Republican National Convention over the summer
when Biden was still the nominee, angering many Democrats. O’Brien,
who has described himself as a “lifelong Democrat,” said he also wanted
to talk at the Democratic National Convention. He was not invited to do so,
though some rank-and-file Teamsters retirees were instead.
In what was perhaps a sign that the endorsement was not seen as
obtainable for the Democratic ticket, neither Biden nor his senior aides
directly lobbied the Teamsters national leaders to support Harris — or
himself when he was running — according to Biden officials. Instead,
Biden aides back-channeled with Teamsters allies outside of the board on
behalf of both the president and Harris.
Still, the Teamsters’ internal survey results showing apparently strong
member support for Trump surprised even some union leaders. Bill
Carroll, president of Teamsters Joint Council 39 in Wisconsin, said he was
“shocked” when he saw the polling, though he added he nearly missed the
response deadline and thinks pro-Harris members may not have known
about it.
But, he said, “Maybe we haven’t conveyed the importance of good labor
policy, federally, and what that means for our members. We need to find a
way to show them the bigger picture.”
Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), a Teamsters ally, agreed that more work has to
be done to win over blue-collar voters. He said both parties had
contributed to “the hollowing out of manufacturing,” leading to anger and
distrust in the working class.
“I think we need to show that we have a vision for bringing manufacturing
back, for bringing new industry to America,” he said. “Obama did it. And
so, I mean, I think it’s very doable.”
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Teamsters won’t endorse in presidential race after releasing internal
polling showing most members support Trump
By Michael Williams, Kayla Tausche and Kevin Liptak, CNN
Updated 8:23 PM EDT, Wed September 18, 2024
01:42 - Source: CNN
CNN reporter describes moment in VIP box during Teamsters president
speech (July 2024)
CNN
—
The International Brotherhood of Teamsters declined to endorse a
presidential candidate on Wednesday after releasing internal polling that
showed a majority of its members supported former President Donald
Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris.
It’s the first time in nearly three decades that the union has not endorsed
a presidential candidate.
“Unfortunately, neither major candidate was able to make serious
commitments to our union to ensure the interests of working people are
always put before Big Business,” Teamsters President Sean O’Brien said in
a statement. “We sought commitments from both Trump and Harris not to
interfere in critical union campaigns or core Teamsters industries – and to
honor our members’ right to strike – but were unable to secure those
pledges.”
Ahead of the decision, the Teamsters shared internal data showing that a
majority of members supported Trump over Harris. According to an
electronic member poll that was initiated after President Joe Biden
withdrew from the race, about 60% of members believed the union should
endorse Trump while 34% supported Harris. About 6% said they
supported another candidate.
“It’s a great honor. They’re not going to endorse the Democrats. That’s a
big thing,” Trump said during a campaign stop in New York City on
Wednesday. “Democrats automatically have the Teamsters. They took a
vote, and I guess I was at 60% or more, and that’s a great honor.”
Harris isn’t giving the specifics some undecided voters say they want
Harris met with Teamsters leaders on Monday. O’Brien had a prime-time
speaking slot at this summer’s Republican National Convention but did
not appear at the Democratic convention the following month.
The Teamsters, which represents truck drivers, freight workers and other
workers, is the last major labor union to announce a presidential
endorsement. The nation’s other major labor organizations, including the
American Federation of Teachers and the United Auto Workers, have
backed Harris.
The last time the Teamsters sat out a presidential election was 1996. It
endorsed Democratic nominees in the ensuing six elections, including
Trump’s opponents Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020. The union
last backed a Republican presidential candidate in 1988, with an
endorsement of George H.W. Bush.
CNN previously reported that rank-and-file union membership had large
pockets of Trump support, even as major labor leaders endorsed Harris.
Before Biden dropped out of the race, Teamsters officials had suggested
to various stakeholders that the union could remain politically neutral this
cycle for the first time in decades.
“At the end of the day, the Teamsters are not interested if you have a ‘D,’
‘R’ or an ‘I’ next to your name. We want to know one thing,” O’Brien said at
the RNC. “What are you doing to help American workers?”
An endorsement from the Teamsters, which counts members across a
variety of industries and is heavily represented in critical swing states
such as Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania – all of which went for
Trump in 2016 before backing Biden four years later – would have been a
crucial get for either candidate.
Later Wednesday, the Harris campaign touted support from local
Teamsters’ chapters in Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada, seeking to
reaffirm its union support.
Meanwhile, the president of the Teamsters’ National Black Caucus
questioned the union’s decision to withhold an endorsement in the 2024
presidential race and suggested O’Brien was afraid to have “hard
conversations” with members.
“I’m not going to harp on the disappointment that my national leadership
did not have the courage or the fortitude to stand up to this bully and to
be able to go out and tell our entire membership, this is the best thing for
you as members,” James “Curb” Curbeam, a member of Teamsters Local
480 in Nashville, said in reference to Trump.
He also called into question the polling methodology used to support the
union’s decision.
“What is the actual number of people that took part in the polls?”
Curbeam asked.
Curbeam said the Black Caucus would do its own organizing in support of
Harris.
The Teamsters’ endorsements of Clinton and Biden in the past two
presidential cycles came under previous leadership. While union members
are thought of as a traditionally Democratic voting bloc, Trump has been
working to make inroads among rank-and-file members.
Biden had long enjoyed strong union support. He became the first sitting
president to visit a picket line last September and frequently employed
some version of the line, “The middle class built America, and unions built
the middle class” in many of his stump speeches during his time as
candidate. Harris has also begun using that line.
The Teamsters internal data also revealed that a town hall straw poll taken
before Biden exited the race showed him with 44% of members’ support
compared with Trump’s 36%. That survey also included Robert F.
Kennedy Jr., who garnered about 6% of members’ support. Kennedy has
since suspended his campaign and endorsed Trump.
But Harris does not have the same long history with unions and working
people as the president.
Her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, is himself a former union
member as a public school teacher.
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